France’s Bayrou government risks collapse with budget confidence vote

France's minority government looks increasingly likely to be ousted next month after three main opposition parties said they would not back a confidence vote which Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced for 8 September over his plans for sweeping €44 billion budget cuts.

The far-right National Rally (RN), the Greens and later the Socialists, on whose vote Bayrou's fate largely lies, said they did not see how they could back him.

If he loses the confidence vote in the National Assembly, Bayrou's government will fall.

If that happens, President Emmanuel Macron could name a new prime minister immediately or ask Bayrou to stay on as head of a caretaker government, or he could call a snap election.

Macron lost his last prime minister, Michel Barnier, to a no-confidence vote over the budget in late 2024, after just three months in office following another snap election in July that year.

Bayrou acknowledged seeking the confidence of a very fragmented parliament was a risky bet but defended the budget as necessary to tackle France’s deficit, which hit 5.8% of GDP last year, nearly double the EU’s 3% limit.

"Yes, it's risky, but it's even riskier not to do anything," he told a press conference, referring to what he said was the major danger the country faced due to its huge debt pile.

Bayrou has also proposed scrapping two public holidays and freezing welfare spending and tax brackets in 2026 at 2025 levels, not adjusting them for inflation. He said his proposal to scrap the bank holidays could be tweaked.

The vote comes two days before planned nationwide protests on 10 September, supported by leftist parties and unions, echoing the 2018 Yellow Vest movement over cost-of-living pressures.

Opposition leaders framed the confidence vote as the government’s end.

“The RN will never vote in favour of a government whose decisions are making the French people suffer,” said Jordan Bardella, far-right party chief.

Even if Bayrou wins, the vote only signals parliamentary support for his approach. The actual budget vote is still pending later this year.

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