A devastating drought gripping parts of China’s key wheat-growing regions has severely cut harvest yields for many farmers, raising fresh concerns about agricultural resilience in the world’s largest wheat producer.
In Shaanxi and Henan provinces, where the dry spell has been particularly harsh, farmers report significant reductions in output. In the village of Maqiao, near the historic Terracotta Warriors site in Shaanxi, fields lie parched under record-breaking heat. Zhou Yaping, a 50-year-old farmer with more than two decades of experience, expects her wheat yield to drop by half. “I’ve never seen a drought this bad,” she told Reuters during a visit in late May.
Early Harvest, Lower Yields
The extreme heat and arid conditions forced some farmers to harvest their crops a week earlier than usual, in a desperate attempt to salvage what remained. Official figures on the harvest won’t be available for several weeks, but anecdotal reports from over a dozen local farmers suggest that losses of 30% to 50% are common in affected areas.
Last month, Shaanxi recorded its highest average temperatures since 1961, with the sun baking the soil into cracked slabs and prematurely drying out wheat heads before they could mature. While recent rainfall brought temporary relief, it also disrupted harvesting operations for those who delayed collection.
Mixed Impact Across Regions
The drought’s effects have varied across China’s vast wheat belt. Farmers with access to irrigation infrastructure, particularly in Henan province, reported stable yields. A farmer surnamed Ma in Xinxiang, who operates a 50-acre farm, said his crop performed well thanks to irrigation.
However, others were less fortunate. In Zhumadian, another Henan farmer named Zhang said his wheat yield was down 40%, matching the losses he suffered during 2023 floods that led to crop disease. “After covering the costs of seeds, harvesting, and ploughing, we just break even with little to no profit,” he said.
Trade and Market Outlook
Despite the widespread damage in some regions, analysts say the overall national wheat output may not decline drastically. “The drought has had a significant impact on wheat yields in areas with poor irrigation infrastructure, but the overall reduction in output is not expected to be substantial,” said Rosa Wang of Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.
It remains unclear whether China will need to ramp up wheat imports to cover domestic shortfalls. Lower imports in recent months have left exporters like Australia with higher-than-usual wheat stocks. However, tepid demand and adequate national reserves may curb China’s appetite for additional foreign grain in the near term, traders noted.
According to Xinhua News Agency, as of May 30, approximately 60% of wheat in Henan and 20% in Shaanxi had been harvested.
Climate Risks and Resilience
This year’s drought underscores the increasing vulnerability of China’s agriculture sector to climate extremes, which have ranged from flooding in 2023 to this year’s historic heat. The experience has also renewed calls for investment in irrigation systems and drought-resilient crop varieties to ensure food security amid growing environmental instability.
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