A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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Hungary’s move to secure guaranteed Russian gas transit through Türkiye has stabilised a key supply corridor, but the country’s continued reliance on Moscow raises questions.
Ukraine faces a narrowing diplomatic space as pressure builds around U.S. backed peace proposals, warning that the structure of the conflict may leave little room to avoid difficult territorial choices.
Special representatives for Iran and Russia have discuss declining Caspian Sea levels during a meeting held in Tehran.
China and Russia have successfully concluded a joint strategic air patrol over the East China Sea and the Western Pacific under the framework of their annual military cooperation plan.
Scores of demonstrators gathered outside the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo Tuesday (9 December) to protest against the awarding of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.
Pressure is mounting between Venezuela and the United States as both nations emphasise military preparedness and strategic positioning.
Iran and Saudi Arabia reiterated their commitment to enhance ties following a joint meeting with China in Tehran on Tuesday to follow up on implementation of the 2023 Beijing Agreement which resulted in resumption of their diplomatic relations after eight years.
Tanzania's government warned on Monday that protests scheduled for Tuesday would be illegal and amounted to an attempted coup, as security forces were heavily deployed in major cities.
Türkiye has reinforced its strategic partnership with Hungary, aiming to expand cooperation in trade, energy, defense, and innovation.
Uzbekistan will introduce a nationwide system to assess the resilience of officials and civil service candidates to corruption risks from 2026, according to a presidential decree adopted this week.
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has thanked U.S. President Donald Trump. In his letter, the head of state expressed deep gratitude to Donald Trump, appreciating his kind words and his thoughts on Azerbaijan's efforts for peace and stability.
A new five-year partnership framework between Georgia and the United Nations has set out priorities for development through 2030. The agreement outlines economic, social, and governance goals.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in Astana on Wednesday, 10 December, for a two-day visit aimed at expanding trade, transit, and economic ties, with more than ten agreements expected to be signed.
Special representatives for Iran and Russia have discuss declining Caspian Sea levels during a meeting held in Tehran.
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