A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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Russia has launched its new nuclear-powered submarine, the Khabarovsk, at the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk, the Defence Ministry said Saturday.
Russia has condemned the United States for using what it called excessive military force during counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean, saying the actions breach both U.S. and international law.
Ukraine’s top military commander has confirmed that troops are facing “difficult conditions” defending the strategic eastern town of Pokrovsk against a multi-thousand Russian force.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday dismissed reports that Russian forces had encircled Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region, insisting that Ukrainian troops remain in control of the situation.
Reports from CNN say the Pentagon has approved the provision of long range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine after assessing its impact on U.S. stockpiles, while leaving the ultimate decision to President Trump.
Ukraine’s top military commander has confirmed that troops are facing “difficult conditions” defending the strategic eastern town of Pokrovsk against a multi-thousand Russian force.
Residents of Hoi An, Vietnam’s UNESCO-listed ancient town, began cleaning up on Saturday as floodwaters receded following days of torrential rain that brought deadly flooding and widespread destruction to the central region.
The United Nations has warned of a catastrophic humanitarian situation in Sudan after reports emerged of mass killings, sexual violence, and forced displacements following the capture of al-Fashir by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Egypt has inaugurated the Grand Egyptian Museum near the Great Pyramid of Giza, unveiling the world’s largest archaeological museum and a modern cultural landmark celebrating over 7,000 years of history.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is expected to call at a meeting in Istanbul on Monday for arrangements to be made as soon as possible to ensure the security and administration of Gaza by Palestinians.
Tehran will rebuild its nuclear facilities "with greater strength", Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media on Sunday, adding that the country does not seek a nuclear weapon.
Syrian Foreign Minister Asad al-Shaibani confirmed on Sunday that President Ahmed al-Sharaa will visit the White House in early November and discuss the reconstruction of Syria.
The Lebanese government must fulfill its commitment to disarm Hezbollah and remove it from southern Lebanon, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said Sunday.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is expected to visit Washington for discussions on Syria’s possible role in the U.S.-led coalition against IS.
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