A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday (14 March) that many countries are interested in purchasing Russian oil after the United States temporarily eased sanctions on certain exports.
Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery and a key port in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region overnight (13-14 March), local authorities said, causing injuries and damage. In separate action, Russian air attacks on Ukrainian territory killed and wounded civilians near Kyiv, officials reported.
The European Commission will instruct governments to be flexible in enforcing EU rules on gas imports, diplomats told Reuters on Thursday (12 March), a move likely to benefit imports from Azerbaijan.
The new constitution of Armenia must not contain any reference to the Declaration of Independence, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Thursday (12 March), according to Armenian media reports.
A long-running investigation has suggested that the street artist known as Banksy may be legally named David Jones. A report indicates that Jones was previously known as Robin Gunningham, a name long associated with Banksy, before legally changing his name several years ago.
Iran says it is open to talks with countries seeking safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz - disrupted by recent attacks - as Israel continues to launch wide‑scale strikes on Iranian infrastructure in the west. This live report tracks the latest developments.
The Academy Awards nominations have been announced, with the crime drama Sinners leading the race securing a record 16 nominations ahead of the ceremony set for 15 March. The event, which honours the film industry’s top achievements over the past year, will be hosted by comedian Conan O'Brien.
A sandstorm swept across the Gaza Strip on Saturday, worsening conditions for displaced civilians already living in fragile shelters amid the ongoing conflict, according to local reports.
A number of flights have resumed to and from Dubai International Airport, after a drone strike early on Monday resulted in the temporary suspension of operations at the world's busiest air hub. It comes as the Middle East conflict enters its 16th day.
At least 10 people have died after a fire broke out at a hospital trauma unit in eastern India on Monday (16 March). The victims, who were all patients, were being moved to safer areas away from the blaze when they died, officials said.
Kazakh voters have overwhelmingly approved a new constitution that could allow President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev a loophole to stay in power beyond 2029. Exit polls showed that around 87% of voters have backed the new constitution.
A number of flights have resumed to and from Dubai International Airport, after a drone strike early on Monday resulted in the temporary suspension of operations at the world's busiest air hub. It comes as the Middle East conflict enters its 16th day.
The process of evacuating foreign diplomats and citizens from Iran to Azerbaijan through the Astara state border crossing continues on Sunday (15 March), ensuring smooth and efficient transit for those arriving.
Israeli forces killed a Palestinian father, mother, and two of their children as they drove in the occupied West Bank on Sunday (15 March), Palestinian health authorities said, and the Israeli military said the incident was under review.
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