A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the United States was making “genuine efforts” to end the conflict in Ukraine and indicated that Moscow and Washington might reach a nuclear arms agreement as part of a broader push to promote peace.
Eyewitness footage showed the moment a Ukrainian drone struck a residential building in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Thursday.
WhatsApp said Russia was trying to block its services because the social media messaging app owned by Meta Platforms META.O offered people's right to secure communication, and vowed to continue trying to make encrypted services available in Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened "severe consequences" if Russia's Vladimir Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine but also said on Wednesday that a meeting between them could swiftly be followed by a second that would include the leader of Ukraine.
The world’s biggest dance music festival faces an unexpected setback as a fire destroys its main stage, prompting a last-minute response from organisers determined to keep the party alive in Boom, Belgium.
A powerful eruption at Japan’s Shinmoedake volcano sent an ash plume more than 3,000 metres high on Sunday morning, prompting safety warnings from authorities.
According to the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), a magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck the Oaxaca region of Mexico on Saturday.
A resumption of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports is not expected in the near term, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday, despite an announcement by Iraq’s federal government a day earlier stating that shipments would resume immediately.
A magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck 56 kilometres east of Gorgan in northern Iran early Sunday morning, according to preliminary seismic data.
On 14 August, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeyhun Bayramov spoke by phone with his Kazakh counterpart, Murat Nurtleu.
Türkiye will provide Syria with weapons systems, logistics and military training under a new cooperation deal aimed at bolstering Syrian state forces and territorial integrity, a Turkish Defence Ministry source said on Thursday.
Chinese companies are ramping up investment in Indonesia to avoid steep U.S. import tariffs and tap into Southeast Asia’s largest consumer market.
In the first half of 2025, Türkiye's startup fintech, gaming, and AI startups raised a combined $211 million, a clear sign of growing investor confidence.
On 11 August, 2025, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Council of States — Switzerland’s upper parliamentary chamber rejected draft resolution No. 24.321, titled 'Annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Release of Azerbaijan’s Political Prisoners.'
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