A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for international economic and investment cooperation confirmed Thursday that he has been meeting with White House officials to restore a U.S.-Russian dialogue that was “completely destroyed under the Biden administration."
During a high-level meeting, officials from Kyrgyzstan and Russia emphasized the growing economic partnership between the two nations, highlighting a 14.5% increase in mutual trade and reaffirming their commitment to further expansion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev met with U.S. officials in Washington on Wednesday as the Trump administration continues to press Russia and Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, two U.S. officials familiar with the matter said.
A missile attack on Kryvyi Rih on 2 April has left several casualties and significant damage, with local authorities now investigating the cause and impact of the strike. The attack, which targeted a company in the city, has raised concerns about the ongoing security situation.
Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, on Wednesday imposed restrictions on another major oil export route, suspending a mooring at the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk only a day after restricting loadings from a key Caspian pipeline.
South Korea’s top court will decide on Friday whether to remove or reinstate President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose brief martial law order sparked the country’s biggest political crisis in years.
The Pentagon’s internal debate over restructuring key military commands — including potentially ending the U.S. monopoly over NATO’s top post — has raised red flags among generals and lawmakers alike, amid growing unease in Europe.
President Trump’s new tariffs hit 185 countries, with Kazakhstan facing the highest rate at 27%. Kazakhstan now seeks talks with U.S. officials to ease the impact.
The U.S. has pressured Lebanon to act against Hezbollah, urging the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to enforce a ceasefire. The LAF, caught between U.S. demands and Hezbollah’s influence, risks losing vital U.S. support if it fails to act.
U.N. aid chief Tom Fletcher is set to visit Myanmar on Friday, following the country’s devastating earthquake. The U.N. is urging for urgent international assistance and unhindered aid access as the region grapples with the aftermath of the disaster.
Aid groups in Myanmar’s worst-hit areas urgently need shelter, food, and water after a devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake killed over 2,700 people. Rescue efforts face challenges due to ongoing civil war, damaged infrastructure, and restricted aid access, with the toll expected to rise.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was banned from running for public office for five years after being convicted of embezzlement, ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race. She received a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, and a €100,000 fine. Le Pen plans to appeal.
The Armenian armed forces attempted three reconnaissance drone flights over Azerbaijan Army positions near Gerenzur, but all were successfully intercepted. Meanwhile, Armenian units repeatedly fired on Azerbaijani positions from multiple regions, escalating tensions in the area.
Apple marked its 49th anniversary by reaching a market capitalization of $3.3 trillion. Despite recent tech stock volatility, Apple's shares surged 28% in 2024.
Iran and Afghanistan are working to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties as the Taliban seeks greater engagement with the United States. The discussions focus on trade, security, and regional stability, highlighting shifting alliances in the region amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
A roundtable discussion on Azerbaijan’s demining initiatives was held at the Hudson Institute in Washington, organized by the Azerbaijani Embassy. Representatives from ANAMA and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided insights into ongoing operations and challenges related to landmine clearance.
The first-ever Central Asia-European Union summit takes place in Samarkand, marking a milestone in regional cooperation. Officials will discuss trade, investment, energy, and security, aiming to strengthen economic ties and enhance political dialogue between the two regions, Kazinform reports.
The first-ever summit between the European Union (EU) and the five Central Asian nations—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan - began today in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
During a high-level meeting, officials from Kyrgyzstan and Russia emphasized the growing economic partnership between the two nations, highlighting a 14.5% increase in mutual trade and reaffirming their commitment to further expansion.
South Korea’s top court will decide on Friday whether to remove or reinstate President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose brief martial law order sparked the country’s biggest political crisis in years.
The Pentagon’s internal debate over restructuring key military commands — including potentially ending the U.S. monopoly over NATO’s top post — has raised red flags among generals and lawmakers alike, amid growing unease in Europe.
President Trump’s new tariffs hit 185 countries, with Kazakhstan facing the highest rate at 27%. Kazakhstan now seeks talks with U.S. officials to ease the impact.
The U.S. has pressured Lebanon to act against Hezbollah, urging the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to enforce a ceasefire. The LAF, caught between U.S. demands and Hezbollah’s influence, risks losing vital U.S. support if it fails to act.
U.N. aid chief Tom Fletcher is set to visit Myanmar on Friday, following the country’s devastating earthquake. The U.N. is urging for urgent international assistance and unhindered aid access as the region grapples with the aftermath of the disaster.
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