A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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Maritime trackers received new reports of an attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), adding to concerns about energy supplies after Saudi Arabia shut down a vital oil pipeline on Saturday.
A Kyiv-Warsaw train was struck near the Polish border, Ukraine's state railway firm said on Sunday. No passengers were injured. Ukrainian Railways said that the country's railways were facing systematic attacks for a second day and warned of widespread delays.
U.S. Central Command said 101 commercial vessels have been redirected in the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices rose more than three per cent amid fresh regional attacks and supply concerns.
A Russian strike on a farm warehouse in Pryluky, north-central Ukraine, has killed at least three people, local police said. Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said an attack on a train near the Polish border was an attempt to intimidate Ukraine's allies.
U.S. President Donald Trump has again said Iran is keen to reach a deal quickly, but a senior Iranian security official rejected the claim, saying Tehran will not negotiate until its conditions are met.
Georgia's move to comply with U.S. sanctions on Iranian airlines has sparked a diplomatic exchange with Tehran, as Tbilisi faces growing scrutiny in Washington over its ties with Iran, Russia and China.
Pakistan’s courts have temporarily blocked the expulsion of Afghan medical students, allowing dozens to continue their studies as Islamabad presses ahead with its wider Afghan repatriation drive amid tensions with Kabul.
Syria says it has taken major steps to resolve long-running concerns over its nuclear programme, marking what officials describe as the beginning of a new phase of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Georgia has been formally integrated into the European Union's Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), bringing Anaklia Deep-Sea Port, Georgian Railway's main line and the East-West Highway into the network's expanded framework.
Türkiye’s foreign minister has renewed calls for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and disband, during talks with Syrian officials in Damascus.
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