A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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At least five people were killed and five others injured when an Amazon Prime Air cargo plane overran a runway and crashed while landing at Miami International Airport on Sunday, 6 September, local officials said.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday that the United States must recognise that the “rules of the game” in its war against Iran had changed “before it is too late”, a day after Washington struck several Iranian tankers in the Gulf.
U.S. special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Sunday on efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
A TV channel was struck during a live broadcast on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, as Russian strikes on Kyiv killed at least three people, the city's Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Meanwhile, drones hit civilian infrastructure in Russia's southwestern Saratov region.
Indonesia has reopened Jakarta's main airport and four others after volcanic ash from Mount Anak Krakatau forced widespread flight cancellations, though fresh eruptions have kept authorities on alert.
Operations at several energy facilities in Saudi Arabia were suspended on Tuesday after attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi forces injured more than 70 people and sparked fires, Saudi authorities said.
The future of the Caspian Sea is in focus at Baku Climate Action Week, with experts examining how the region can adapt to a changing climate while protecting communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.
Syria's government has integrated armed factions into the national army and is restructuring its security institutions as part of a broader effort to consolidate state authority and support the country's post-conflict recovery, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said on Monday.
Kazakhstan plans to build an international Earth observation satellite network of up to 14 spacecraft, expanding a project already bringing together Mongolia, the Republic of the Congo and Nigeria.
Iran has dismissed a joint U.S.-E3 draft resolution on its nuclear programme as “meaningless, illogical, and illegal”, saying Tehran is ready to respond if the measure is pursued at the ongoing IAEA board meeting in Vienna.
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