A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reaffirmed his “unconditional support” for all actions taken by Russia to resolve the Ukraine war, during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, according to North Korean state media.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that North Korea had reaffirmed full support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine during talks in the coastal city of Wonsan, underscoring an alliance that South Korea believes may soon send even more Pyongyang troops to the front.
The chiefs of Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp met in Beijing on Friday to chart wider Russian gas deliveries, as the Power of Siberia pipeline nears full 38 billion-cubic-metre capacity and the two sides still haggle over prices for a larger Siberia-2 link.
Top military officials from South Korea, the United States, and Japan held talks in Seoul and urged North Korea to stop activities that destabilise the region, as the three allies conducted a joint air exercise on South Korea’s southern Jeju island.
A series of earthquakes have struck Guatemala on Tuesday afternoon, leading authorities to advise residents to evacuate from buildings as a precaution against possible aftershocks.
A deadly mass shooting early on Monday (7 July) in Philadelphia's Grays Ferry neighbourhood left three men dead and nine others wounded, including teenagers, as more than 100 shots were fired.
Australian researchers have created a groundbreaking “biological AI” platform that could revolutionise drug discovery by rapidly evolving molecules within mammalian cells.
Dozens of international and domestic flights were cancelled or delayed after Mount Lewotobi Laki Laki erupted on Monday, but Bali’s main airport remains operational.
French member of parliament Olivier Marleix was found dead at his home on Monday, with suicide being considered a possible cause.
Georgia and China have expressed interest in expanding cooperation in the fields of education, tourism, and cultural exchange, during a high-level meeting on the sidelines of a forum in Croatia.
Israeli and Syrian officials reportedly met face to face in Baku, signalling a rare step in potential regional coordination despite decades of hostilities.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss bilateral ties as well as regional and global issues, Türkiye’s Communications Directorate said on Saturday.
President Tayyip Erdogan declared on Saturday that an historic turning point had been reached in Türkiye’s four-decade conflict with the Kurdistan Workers Party after 30 militants burned their weapons in northern Iraq.
The working visit of the Transitional President of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmad Al Sharaa, to the Republic of Azerbaijan concluded on July 12.
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