A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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Israeli military bulldozers have begun demolishing buildings in the West Bank city of Hebron on Friday, 23 October, following armed clashes with Palestinians that left two Israeli soldiers dead, according to the Israeli military.
Around 11,000 people joined a demonstration in Orléans on Saturday against the National Rally congress, according to the local prefecture.
Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday, leaving one person dead and more than 500 injured as strong winds and torrential rain brought down trees, cut power and disrupted transport across the island.
A powerful magnitude 7 earthquake has struck Tibet in southwestern China, killing 16 people and injuring 65, while forcing more than 12,000 residents to relocate as rescue teams respond to widespread aftershocks.
Missile and drone attacks have put Saudi Arabia on high alert, disrupting life in Riyadh and testing a new defence pact with Türkiye and Pakistan as regional tensions escalate.
Israeli forces have maintained a tight closure on Hebron in the occupied West Bank for a second day, with Palestinian media reporting home raids, mass detentions and dozens of residents forced outside following a shooting incident the day before.
Foreign ministers meeting in Istanbul on Friday warned that renewed military strikes on Iran could deepen the regional conflict, urging diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation.
Georgia’s Constitutional Court has extended hearings in a case seeking to ban five opposition parties, with proceedings now set to continue until 30 October. The court in Batumi will resume hearings on Monday, 26 October, after missing its original 23 October deadline.
Pakistan and the European Union have agreed to step up counterterrorism cooperation as security concerns over Afghanistan grow and tensions between Islamabad and Kabul persist.
The head of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) says Armenia has effectively withdrawn from the military alliance, despite not formally ending its membership.
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