A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
Russian security forces say they have detained a Ukrainian agent accused of killing a top Russian general with a car bomb near Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Ukrainian forces pushed out of Kursk, but Ukraine insists its troops are still operating in the region.
Donald Trump said talks between his envoy and Vladimir Putin made major progress toward ending the Ukraine war, urging Kyiv and Moscow to meet face-to-face.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiyy said Kyiv cannot reclaim Crimea by force, as tensions grow over Trump’s peace plan proposal.
On April 24-25, Russian drone strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killed 3, including a 15-year-old girl, and injured 14, including 3 children. The attack caused fires, infrastructure damage, and power outages. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 11 drones, with ongoing recovery efforts.
Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas has named Hussein al-Sheikh as the PLO’s first-ever vice president, positioning him as a leading successor.
Russian security forces say they have detained a Ukrainian agent accused of killing a top Russian general with a car bomb near Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Ukrainian forces pushed out of Kursk, but Ukraine insists its troops are still operating in the region.
Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged gunfire for a second consecutive day on Saturday, as relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors deteriorated following a deadly attack on tourists in India’s Kashmir region.
President Donald Trump has expressed scepticism over Vladimir Putin’s willingness to end the war in Ukraine, suggesting that peace may not be achievable soon, despite earlier comments indicating proximity to a deal.
China has rolled out the world’s first 10-gigabit (10G) fixed broadband network in Xiong'an New Area, promising ultra-fast speeds and low latency through cutting-edge optical infrastructure.
Pope Francis's relationship with Azerbaijan has evolved significantly over the years, characterized by diplomatic exchanges, promotion of religious tolerance, and peace advocacy in the Caucasus region.
Russia launched a major missile and drone assault on Kyiv overnight on April 24, killing at least twelve people and injuring 90, including children and a pregnant woman, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko.
China’s pivot away from U.S. liquefied petroleum gas under new tariffs is shaking global energy flows, slashing demand, and fuelling a scramble for alternatives across Asia, with Middle Eastern suppliers and rival buyers seizing the moment.
A deadly attack targeting tourists in India’s Jammu and Kashmir territory has left at least 20 feared dead, marking the deadliest incident against civilians in the region for years, according to security sources.
Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged gunfire for a second consecutive day on Saturday, as relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors deteriorated following a deadly attack on tourists in India’s Kashmir region.
The Syrian Ministry of Defense on Thursday accused Hezbollah militias of firing artillery shells from Lebanese territory toward Syrian army positions in the al-Qusayr area west of Homs.
Saudi Arabia on Friday unveiled its annual report highlighting the Kingdom’s advancements toward achieving the ambitious goals of Vision 2030 during the year 2024.
On April 25, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu to discuss the South Caucasus, peace talks with Armenia, and strengthening bilateral cooperation. Aliyev emphasized dismantling the OSCE Minsk Group and securing Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.
Russia and Iran have signaled their commitment to deepen energy cooperation by working on new overland gas corridors, according to a statement from the Russian Cabinet.
Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas has named Hussein al-Sheikh as the PLO’s first-ever vice president, positioning him as a leading successor.
Russian security forces say they have detained a Ukrainian agent accused of killing a top Russian general with a car bomb near Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Ukrainian forces pushed out of Kursk, but Ukraine insists its troops are still operating in the region.
Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged gunfire for a second consecutive day on Saturday, as relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors deteriorated following a deadly attack on tourists in India’s Kashmir region.
President Donald Trump has expressed scepticism over Vladimir Putin’s willingness to end the war in Ukraine, suggesting that peace may not be achievable soon, despite earlier comments indicating proximity to a deal.
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