A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reaffirmed his country's close ties with Russia, sending a congratulatory message to President Vladimir Putin on Russia’s National Day and expressing full support for Moscow’s domestic and foreign policies, according to state news agency KCNA.
Russia has once again offered warm words to Tbilisi, with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova praising Georgia's efforts to safeguard its sovereignty and saying Moscow is ready to deepen ties.
The ambassadors of France, Germany and Britain have attended a meeting at Russia’s Foreign Ministry, raising questions about a possible ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, or at least the resumption of peace talks.
Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing will attend a video conference hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday (12 June) to discuss global economic imbalances, marking a rare high-level engagement between China and G7 nations ahead of next week's summit in France.
SpaceX has made history with the largest initial public offering ever in the United States, pricing its shares at $135 each and achieving a market valuation of $1.77 trillion.
SpaceX made a historic entrance into the Nasdaq on Friday, surging over 20% in its first day of trading and lifting its valuation to more than $2 trillion. Investors flocked to the world’s largest IPO, betting on Elon Musk’s sprawling empire spanning rockets, AI and beyond.
Pakistan has warned that any attempt by India to block or significantly reduce river flows under the Indus Waters Treaty could have “far-reaching consequences”, after India's water minister said New Delhi was working to ensure that “not a single drop” of water reaches Pakistan in the coming years.
While France hosts next week’s Group of Seven summit, businesses in neighbouring Switzerland have already begun taking precautions, with many shops in Geneva boarded up ahead of a large anti-G7 demonstration expected on Sunday.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said a peace agreement with Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday in a post on social media, despite Tehran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei saying no deal would be approved this weekend.
Uzbekistan will launch a new digital financial platform from 1 July aimed at simplifying access to finance for entrepreneurs, as part of broader efforts to support small businesses, encourage innovation and accelerate private sector development.
Pakistan has warned that any attempt by India to block or significantly reduce river flows under the Indus Waters Treaty could have “far-reaching consequences”, after India's water minister said New Delhi was working to ensure that “not a single drop” of water reaches Pakistan in the coming years.
The global race to develop quantum computing is accelerating, with governments and technology firms investing heavily in what is expected to become a major new computing era.
Japan’s birth rate and fertility levels have fallen to their lowest levels on record, highlighting the country’s worsening demographic crisis as fewer people marry and have children.
Iran said no final decision has been made on a proposed agreement with Washington, despite suggestions from U.S. President Donald Trump that a deal could soon be signed in a European capital.
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