A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that there is a good chance” of reaching a deal with Iran, but warned that Washington would resume military operation if negotiations fail.
Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its pause on strikes, but Tehran remains sceptical of U.S. intentions, a senior Iranian source told on Sunday.
The Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly reshaping the Caspian region. From threats to energy infrastructure to renewed diplomatic efforts, countries across the region are adapting to the wider consequences of a conflict that continues to disrupt trade, transport and security.
Yemen warned the Houthis were seeking to replicate Iran's Strait of Hormuz strategy in the Red Sea, as U.S. President Donald Trump said there was a "good chance" of a deal with Tehran but warned strikes could resume if talks failed.
A New York school district has put plans to introduce a humanoid robot into classrooms on hold after fierce criticism from teachers, Indigenous community members and state education officials over the use of artificial intelligence in schools.
Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed 22 trade agreements worth more than $200 million during a business forum in Kabul on Sunday, as officials from both countries pledged to deepen economic cooperation and expand trade and investment.
Moscow should stop linking Russia-Armenia relations to Azerbaijan, Baku's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada has said, after Russia again raised the Collective Security Treaty Organisation's role during the former Garabagh conflict.
President Donald Trump has dismissed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opposition to a potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye, saying U.S. arms sales are decided by Washington alone. He also praised Türkiye as "a tremendous ally" and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as "a friend".
Pakistani businesses are warning that growing difficulties in obtaining United Arab Emirates (UAE) visas are disrupting trade, delaying investment and limiting access to a key export market, despite both Islamabad and Abu Dhabi saying there is no official visa ban.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to resolve a dispute over trade restrictions imposed by Moscow, Yerevan's government said on Monday.
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