A potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia's oil flows, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine.
"We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, pumps about half the world's oil.
The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.
OPEC+ pushed the plan to begin raising output to April, extending its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
On Monday, Russia's RIA state news agency reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that OPEC+ producers were not considering further delays in the monthly oil supply increases.
Russia, as one of the world's top oil suppliers, holds substantial sway over global oil markets and prices.
Goldman Sachs continues to expect potential recoveries in positioning and valuation to nudge Brent up to $79 per barrel later this month.
Brent crude prices were trading at about $76 a barrel as of 0537 GMT on Wednesday.
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Ukraine’s military said on Thursday that its strikes are aimed solely at Russian military and energy infrastructure, following claims from Russian authorities that a drone attack killed civilians in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region.
Ukrainian and European officials have rejected Moscow's claims that Ukraine targeted a personal residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin with a drone attack this week, an incident that threatens to disrupt U.S.-led peace negotiations heading into the new year.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his New Year address to the nation, said that Ukraine wanted the war to end, but not at any cost, adding he would not sign a "weak" peace agreement that would only prolong the war.
The Russian radio station known as 'Doomsday Radio' (or UVB-76) unexpectedly began playing ‘Swan Lake’, music from a ballet composition. The last time this was done was during the deaths of Soviet-era leaders and the 1991 coup.
Dozens of people are feared dead and around 100 others injured after an explosion tore through a crowded bar during New Year’s Eve celebrations at the Swiss ski resort of Crans-Montana, authorities said.
The Russian radio station known as 'Doomsday Radio' (or UVB-76) unexpectedly began playing ‘Swan Lake’, music from a ballet composition. The last time this was done was during the deaths of Soviet-era leaders and the 1991 coup.
As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, rising casualties, economic struggles, and mounting unrest expose cracks in society. Despite Kremlin propaganda, frustration is growing as more Russians question the government’s narrative, according to The Washington Post.
At least 47 people were killed and 112 injured after a fire broke out at a crowded bar in the Swiss ski resort town of Crans-Montana during New Year’s Eve celebrations, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told Italian media on Thursday.
India has approved a major arms deal with Israel valued at approximately $8.7 billion, highlighting the deepening defence partnership between the two countries.
Several people have been killed during nationwide unrest in Iran, according to Iranian media and rights groups, as protests over currency collapse and soaring prices escalated into violence across multiple provinces.
Shusha, the historic jewel of Karabakh, is rising again—where geography, history, and modern innovation converge to shape a city reborn.
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres condemned a move by Israel to ban electricity or water to facilities owned by the UN Palestinian refugee agency, a UN spokesperson said.
President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan ended 2025 as a year of peace, security and stability, stressing that unity between the people and the government remained the main factor behind the country’s achievements.
Kazakhstan’s IT exports have reached $700 million, highlighting the accelerating development of the country’s digital economy and its growing integration into global technology markets.
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