As Islamabad prepares to host crucial talks between the U.S. and Iran this Sunday, hopes for a sustained peace remain fragile, with fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon casting doubt over already delicate negotiations.

The meeting follows a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan earlier this week, marking a rare diplomatic breakthrough after more than a month of conflict that has claimed thousands of lives across the Middle East.

Yet the timing is far from ideal. Fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon have added a layer of uncertainty, threatening to derail already delicate negotiations.

Renewed violence clouds diplomatic progress

Speaking to AnewZ, Qaiser Nawab, Chairman of BRISD (Belt and Road Initiative for Sustainable Development), warned that the renewed violence could cast a shadow over the talks. He described the developments as “a very significant challenge”, noting that such incidents risk undermining weeks of careful diplomatic engagement led by Pakistani authorities.

Despite the tensions, Nawab urged caution in predicting outcomes. He highlighted the imbalance between the two negotiating sides, describing the U.S. as a global superpower, while emphasising Iran’s resilience demonstrated during the conflict.

“It is very premature to say who will have the upper hand,” he said, adding that meaningful progress would depend on flexibility and goodwill from both parties.

Competing proposals raise risk of stalemate

Both Washington and Tehran have reportedly entered the talks with competing frameworks - a 15-point proposal from the U.S. and a 10-point plan from Iran - raising concerns about a potential stalemate.

Nawab acknowledged the complexity but suggested that breakthroughs often happen away from public view. He stressed that sensitive elements of diplomacy are rarely disclosed in real time, expressing cautious optimism that “some common ground” could still emerge.

Pakistan balances global role and regional pressures

For Pakistan, the stakes extend beyond mediation. While Islamabad has positioned itself as a peacemaker on the global stage, it continues to grapple with its own regional challenges, including tensions with Afghanistan.

Nawab rejected criticism that Pakistan should prioritise domestic conflicts over international diplomacy, arguing that such issues are not mutually exclusive.

“This is the nature of international relations,” he said, pointing out that many countries engage in mediation despite internal challenges. He also underlined Pakistan’s longstanding ties with Afghanistan and its participation in recent China-facilitated discussions aimed at easing bilateral tensions.

A test of diplomatic credibility

Nawab described the current moment as a “test” for Pakistan’s diplomatic credibility. Turning a temporary ceasefire into a lasting agreement, he noted, would require more than good intentions.

“Peace is linked not only to dialogue, but to power, influence, and above all, trust,” he explained.

• Islamabad peace talks begin today as disputes persist over ceasefire terms and the Strait of Hormuz - Friday 10 April
• U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal shows strain ahead of talks with oil flows squeezed
• Israel seeks Lebanon talks as strikes threaten U.S.–Iran ceasefire

He also reflected on Pakistan’s unique position as a mediator, suggesting that countries with fewer geopolitical stakes can sometimes provide neutral ground for dialogue. However, he cautioned that sustaining such a role - particularly between two powerful adversaries - presents a formidable challenge.

With the world watching, Islamabad now finds itself at the centre of a complex geopolitical stage. Whether these talks can move beyond symbolic engagement and produce tangible results remains uncertain - but for now, they represent a rare opening in an otherwise volatile conflict.

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