IMF affirms Uzbekistan’s positive economic outlook and calls for faster structural reforms

Uzbekistan’s economic performance has remained strong, with robust growth, narrowing consolidated fiscal and current account deficits, and ample international reserves, stated the International Monetary Fund following to the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan.

On 16 June, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV consultation for the Republic of Uzbekistan. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation, according to the IMF release.

IMF Executive Board concluded that Uzbekistan’s economic performance remained strong.

Real GDP growth stood at 6.5% in 2024, underpinned by robust domestic demand, and remained buoyant at 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Inflation had trended downward through end-April 2024 but rose to 10.6% year-on-year in May 2024 that saw the implementation of needed energy price reform. By end-April 2025, it has only marginally eased to 10.1%.

The current account deficit narrowed by 2.6% of GDP to about 5.0% in 2024, driven by strong remittances, rapidly growing non-gold exports, favorable commodity prices, and the unwinding of a one-off spike in imports in 2023.

International reserves have remained ample. The consolidated fiscal deficit narrowed by 1.7% of GDP to 3.2% of GDP in 2024, largely on the back of growth-friendly expenditure measures, although borrowing and spending from the broader public sector were higher than anticipated.  

"Despite elevated external uncertainty, growth is projected to stay robust amid ongoing reforms and strong remittances, while inflation is expected to moderate under tight macroeconomic and macroprudential policies," - the report reads adding that the priorities ahead are to cement macro-financial stability and continue with the economic reform agenda to reduce the state’s footprint while fostering private sector-led and inclusive growth.

Real GDP growth is projected to stay strong at nearly 6% this year and next, driven by steady private consumption, investment, and ongoing structural reforms.

Continued tight monetary and macroprudential policies, along with solid fiscal discipline, are expected to bring inflation down to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s 5% target by the end of 2027.

The external current account deficit is forecasted to remain around or just below 5% in 2025-26, while international reserves should stay adequate at 9.2 months of imports by the end of 2026.

IMF Executive Directors welcomed Uzbekistan’s positive economic outlook and ongoing progress in its transition to a market-oriented economy. They emphasized the importance of sustaining momentum in structural and institutional reforms, supported by Fund technical assistance, to maintain macroeconomic stability and promote strong, resilient growth.

Additionally, Directors urged further deepening and acceleration of structural reforms, while commending the progress made in the World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and energy sector reform.

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