China's economy met the 5% growth target for 2024, but many feel a slowdown, as industrial gains overshadow weak consumer demand. Rising unemployment and deflationary pressures highlight deeper structural challenges, leaving skepticism over the accuracy of official data and future growth.
While China met its official 2024 growth target of 5%, many citizens are feeling the strain of a lopsided recovery. Economic gains have been concentrated in industry and exports, leaving domestic consumption weak and living standards worsening for many.
Despite achieving the target, concerns are growing that structural issues in China’s economy could worsen in 2025, particularly if the government continues to rely on debt to drive growth. Beijing’s strategy includes counteracting potential U.S. tariff hikes, which could be implemented as soon as the inauguration of President Donald Trump next week.
Industrial output outpaced retail sales, and unemployment continued to rise, signaling the challenges of a supply-driven economy running a large trade surplus but facing internal weaknesses. While factory deflation makes Chinese exports more competitive, it also deepens internal deflationary pressures and leads to shrinking corporate profits and stagnant wages.
Andrew Wang, an executive in the industrial automation sector, said his revenue fell 16% last year, prompting job cuts. He noted that for many businesses, “We need to run faster just to stay where we are.”
Despite the government's push for domestic consumption, with policies like a subsidized trade-in program for cars and appliances, many in China feel the economic gains aren’t reaching them. For example, Jiaqi Zhang, a 25-year-old investment banker in Beijing, saw her salary decrease by 30% over two years, leaving her with a general sense of unease about her future.
China's official data claims a 5.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024, a jump from earlier in the year. However, some analysts believe this growth was boosted by front-loaded exports to the U.S., ahead of any potential tariff hikes. Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, warned that a greater domestic stimulus will be needed in 2025 to sustain the economy.
Though China met its target, skepticism is rising about the accuracy of the data. There is growing concern that domestic demand remains weak, which could continue to strain China’s economy and contribute to broader global trade tensions.
As for the future, economists are divided, with some predicting slower growth in 2025. Alicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis stated that investors are unlikely to be swayed by the 5% growth target, pointing out that it’s becoming less relevant given the underlying economic challenges.
Additionally, widespread skepticism about the reliability of official data continues to grow, especially after recent commentary on GDP estimates suggested growth may have been overstated in past years.
Despite these concerns, China is expected to continue implementing stimulus measures to address its structural economic issues and maintain growth in the coming year.
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