Trump's 'special military operation' in Venezuela: A warning to Putin

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The United States’ actions in Venezuela have clearly demonstrated not only that Latin America remains firmly in Washington’s geopolitical orbit, but also that the U.S. is the only global superpower.

As such, it can allow itself to do what actors claiming to represent a “multipolar world” can only dream of. But what message has the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro sent to Russia – a country often perceived as Washington’s primary geopolitical rival?

“What is fitting for Jupiter is not fitting for an ox,” says an ancient Roman proverb. Indeed, unlike Russia, which has been bogged down in Ukraine for four years, it took less than 24 hours for the United States to achieve one of the major goals of its “special military operation” in Venezuela. The Latin American nation’s leader ended up in a New York prison, while the Venezuelan military stayed silent while the U.S. was bombing its facilities.

The country’s new leadership is now in a difficult position, fully aware that they can easily share Maduro’s if they fail to comply with Washington’s demands. But U.S. President Donald Trump’s actions are likely to have significant consequences not only for Venezuela, but for its friends in the international arena.

Hours after Trump announced the capture of Venezuelan leader, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indirectly expressed hope that Washington would do the same to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“If this can be done to dictators, then the United States of America knows what it should do next,” Zelenskyy stressed.

Although the obvious reference was to the Russian leader, at this point such an operation seems highly unlikely. U.S. policymakers are aware that, with Putin in power, Russia faces slim prospects of achieving its goals in Ukraine. Over the past four years, Russian political and military leadership has demonstrated a lack of competence, as well as insufficient will to take actions that might allow Moscow to resolve the conflict in its favor.

As a result, the Kremlin remains engaged in a war that has claimed dozens, if not hundreds of thousands of Russian lives. The U.S. Armed Forces, on the other hand, have successfully completed their “special military operation” without losing a single soldier. More importantly, while Russia’s nominal allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have never supported Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, Washington’s European partners have firmly backed Trump’s moves in Venezuela.

The United States, therefore, does not have any reasons to fear alleged Russian threat, nor to make any deals with the Kremlin. For Washington, it is more than beneficial to let Russia continue bleeding in Ukraine, knowing that the war, whenever it ends, will leave the country severely weakened. After that, potential political changes in Moscow might occur organically – from within, rather than as a result of foreign intervention.

Meanwhile, Washington is likely to shift its focus to another country it views as “problematic” – Iran. Defeated by last year’s Israeli and American bombings, Tehran is now facing unrest and a potential economic crisis. As such, it represents an ideal target for its opponents. A new round of strikes against the Islamic Republic seems to be only a matter of time. Given that Trump did not hide his intentions to allow U.S. energy companies the opportunity to revive Venezuela's oil industry, it is entirely possible that energy considerations may play a role in his foreign policy, particularly with respect to Iran.

In the not-too distant-future, Tehran and Moscow are likely to emerge as major losers of Trump’s “special military operation” in Venezuela. Still, there are rumors in Russia that the U.S. has allegedly agreed to allow Moscow to occupy Ukraine in exchange for the Kremlin turning a blind eye to Washington’s actions in Venezuela. Promoters of such theories quote Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the late far-right Russian nationalist politician, who in 2020 said “Trump will take Venezuela, while Russia will take Ukraine.”

In international relations, might makes right. After Russia repeatedly showed weakness in Ukraine while the United States displayed strength in Iran and Venezuela, Washington is very unlikely to make any concessions to the Kremlin. Trump’s claim that he does not believe Ukraine tried to kill Putin – which Moscow insists is true – is a clear message to Russia that the US will not tolerate potential Russian strikes on the Ukrainian leader. Moreover, following the US victory in Venezuela and Russia’s debacle in Ukraine, Trump is likely to take a harsher approach toward Putin, which means the Kremlin will have a hard time preserving parts of Ukraine under its control.

As then-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (Democrat) said in 2016, “the United States does not recognize spheres of influence.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s (Republican) recent remarks that Washington “will not allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operations for its adversaries, competitors, and rivals,” are perfectly in line with Biden’s approach. When it comes to foreign policy and Washington’s strategic interests, there is no fundamental difference between Democrats and Republicans.

Finally, by capturing Maduro, Trump took a potential card out of Putin’s hand – and not just his. Now that the Western Hemisphere is securely under U.S. control, Washington can focus on other regions – Middle East, Russia, and the Indo-Pacific. But what awaits Venezuela?

Under the current circumstances, for the Venezuelan population – living in poverty despite the fact that their country has the largest oil reserves in the world – it does not really make much difference who controls their natural resources. They are the “collateral damage” of a great geopolitical game in which the United States came out as a clear winner.

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