European forests are absorbing significantly less carbon dioxide than a decade ago, putting the European Union’s ambitious climate goals in jeopardy, scientists from the EU’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) warned on Wednesday.

The study, published in Nature, found that between 2020 and 2022, forests across the continent absorbed about 332 million net tonnes of CO2 annually—nearly one-third less than between 2010 and 2014. Recent national data suggests this decline is accelerating.

"This trend, combined with the declining climate resilience of European forests, indicates that the EU's climate targets, which rely on an increasing carbon sink, might be at risk," the authors wrote.

The EU aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, relying on land and forestry sectors to offset emissions that industries cannot cut. Currently, forests offset only 6% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions—2% short of what is required to stay on course, and the gap is expected to widen further by 2030.

"Wishful thinking" to rely on forests
Agustín Rubio Sánchez, professor of ecology and soil science at the Polytechnic University of Madrid, called the current reliance on forests to balance carbon budgets “wishful thinking”.

"Forests can help, but they shouldn't be assigned quantities to balance carbon budgets," he told Reuters.

Mounting pressures from all sides
Increased logging, climate-induced wildfires and drought, and growing pest outbreaks are all degrading Europe’s forests and undermining their carbon sink capacity.

Some of these threats can be mitigated, the JRC paper said, by reducing over-harvesting, and increasing forest biodiversity with more climate-resilient tree species to help withstand extreme weather and pests.

But policymakers are concerned. "What should we do when there are factors that we, as countries, as governments, have not much ability to control – like forest fires or drought," said Sweden’s environment minister Romina Pourmokhtari last week.

The issue comes as EU states negotiate a new legally binding 2040 climate target, which still counts heavily on forests to offset remaining emissions.

Background context
According to the European Environment Agency, forests currently cover around 39% of EU land. The bloc has been pushing reforestation and climate-resilient ecosystems as part of its Green Deal. However, data shows forest carbon sink capacity is steadily weakening due to climate pressure and land-use practices.

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