The global economy, already fragile, now faces a new shock—this time from the United States. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff wave has dragged average U.S. duties to levels unseen in over a century. The trade war with China is escalating fast.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook attempts to map the damage. But it does so with caution. Its central message is not a forecast—it’s a warning.
“Nobody knows what Trump will do next,” the report implies.
“And no one can say how the world will respond.”
What we do know is this: elevated uncertainty is now the clearest economic reality.
The role of government, the IMF suggests, is to reduce that uncertainty. Trump’s administration, it argues, has chosen the opposite.
The global economy had just begun to stabilise. Inflation was falling. Labour markets were improving. Growth, while lower than pre-pandemic, was returning.
But fragilities remained. Many governments are saddled with debt. Interest rates are high. The old tools—monetary and fiscal—are harder to use.
Trump’s trade war hits in that context. And it’s already reshaping forecasts.
Global growth is projected to fall to 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024.
Recovery to 3% is expected only by 2026.
The figures reflect policy as of April 4. But events didn’t wait.
On April 9, Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days—then raised duties on Chinese goods. On April 12, China hit back.
As of mid-April, the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods stood at 115%. China’s rate on U.S. goods hit 146%.
The average U.S. tariff on global imports: 25%, up from just 3% in January.
This is more than a numbers game. The IMF explains how tariffs hurt the imposer:
The risk isn’t just economic—it’s systemic.
Brutal decoupling between the U.S. and China
Eroding trust in the U.S.
Currency shifts, capital flight, and political instability
Pressure on emerging economies with shrinking international support
Even the threat of major conflict
The IMF, by nature, doesn’t dive into geopolitics. But the shadows are clear.
Could the world step back from the edge?
But the report closes with realism, not hope.
We are not yet off the path to crisis. The question is whether we will choose to leave it.
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Adidas and Puma are expected to raise prices in the U.S. after Nike increased footwear costs, as rising import tariffs push up expenses across the sportswear industry.
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The Trump administration is moving toward lifting sanctions on Syria, but officials caution that coordinating between government agencies means the process will take longer than initially expected.
The 7th Ethnosport Culture Festival kicked off in Istanbul with Azerbaijan’s 100-member team and famed Karabakh horses drawing major attention.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi declared that the United States would bear legal responsibility if Israel launches an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, amid reports of potential Israeli military action and ongoing nuclear negotiations in Rome.
A rare naval misstep has shaken North Korea’s tightly choreographed military image, prompting an urgent internal probe and public scolding from Kim Jong Un.
Baku hosted the 6th plenary meeting of the UN’s GlobE Network, gathering anti-corruption officials from 92 countries to strengthen global cooperation and chart the network’s next steps.
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