The global economy, already fragile, now faces a new shock—this time from the United States. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff wave has dragged average U.S. duties to levels unseen in over a century. The trade war with China is escalating fast.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook attempts to map the damage. But it does so with caution. Its central message is not a forecast—it’s a warning.
“Nobody knows what Trump will do next,” the report implies.
“And no one can say how the world will respond.”
What we do know is this: elevated uncertainty is now the clearest economic reality.
The role of government, the IMF suggests, is to reduce that uncertainty. Trump’s administration, it argues, has chosen the opposite.
The global economy had just begun to stabilise. Inflation was falling. Labour markets were improving. Growth, while lower than pre-pandemic, was returning.
But fragilities remained. Many governments are saddled with debt. Interest rates are high. The old tools—monetary and fiscal—are harder to use.
Trump’s trade war hits in that context. And it’s already reshaping forecasts.
Global growth is projected to fall to 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024.
Recovery to 3% is expected only by 2026.
The figures reflect policy as of April 4. But events didn’t wait.
On April 9, Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days—then raised duties on Chinese goods. On April 12, China hit back.
As of mid-April, the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods stood at 115%. China’s rate on U.S. goods hit 146%.
The average U.S. tariff on global imports: 25%, up from just 3% in January.
This is more than a numbers game. The IMF explains how tariffs hurt the imposer:
The risk isn’t just economic—it’s systemic.
Brutal decoupling between the U.S. and China
Eroding trust in the U.S.
Currency shifts, capital flight, and political instability
Pressure on emerging economies with shrinking international support
Even the threat of major conflict
The IMF, by nature, doesn’t dive into geopolitics. But the shadows are clear.
Could the world step back from the edge?
But the report closes with realism, not hope.
We are not yet off the path to crisis. The question is whether we will choose to leave it.
Foreign ministers from member and observer states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) came together in Budapest for a pre-summit meeting held ahead of the organization’s informal summit.
The US State Department has given the green light for a potential $100 million sale of AW-119Kx helicopters and related equipment to Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to a statement from the Pentagon on Tuesday.
Israel is pulling back its senior negotiation team from the hostage release talks in Doha after a week of what it called “intensive” but fruitless discussions, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced.
A 4.0 magnitude earthquake struck in the Marmara Sea off the coast of Istanbul’s Büyükçekmece district late Monday night, according to Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).
President Donald Trump has officially launched the $175 billion Golden Dome missile defense shield, a sweeping new program aimed at countering threats from China and Russia using advanced satellite technology.
Foreign ministers from member and observer states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) came together in Budapest for a pre-summit meeting held ahead of the organization’s informal summit.
The US State Department has given the green light for a potential $100 million sale of AW-119Kx helicopters and related equipment to Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to a statement from the Pentagon on Tuesday.
Israel is pulling back its senior negotiation team from the hostage release talks in Doha after a week of what it called “intensive” but fruitless discussions, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced.
A 4.0 magnitude earthquake struck in the Marmara Sea off the coast of Istanbul’s Büyükçekmece district late Monday night, according to Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).
President Donald Trump has officially launched the $175 billion Golden Dome missile defense shield, a sweeping new program aimed at countering threats from China and Russia using advanced satellite technology.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on May 15, with discussions reportedly focusing on upcoming peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegates in Istanbul.
Qatar signed a landmark agreement with U.S. aerospace giant Boeing on Wednesday to acquire 160 aircraft for Qatar Airways, a deal valued at $200 billion. The signing took place in Doha during the visit of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Tensions flare in the India-France Rafale deal as France refuses to share the fighter jet’s source code, limiting India’s ability to integrate indigenous weapons and reducing its combat autonomy.
Ukrainian and Russian delegations meet behind closed doors at Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace at 10:00 local time today to explore security guarantees, territorial integrity and a possible ceasefire.
EU approves 17th Russia sanctions, blacklisting almost 200 shadow‑fleet ships, 30 evasion firms and 75 defence figures, banning missile chemicals and arming Brussels to strike Kremlin hybrid and operations.
The EU plans to charge a new €2 fee on billions of small packages, mostly from China, challenging online retailers like Temu and Shein.
Kazakhstan is boosting support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to attract European investment and accelerate economic growth.
As President Putin intensifies strikes against civilians in Ukraine, the UK is stepping up pressure with a new package of 100 sanctions, stated the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.
China cut benchmark lending rates for the first time since October on Tuesday, while major state banks lowered deposit rates as authorities work to ease monetary policy to help buffer the economy from the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war.
British company Anglo Asian Mining Plc (AAM), which specializes in the extraction of gold, silver, and copper in Azerbaijan, has commenced production at Gilar, a new gold deposit located within the Gedabek site in the western part of the country.
Foreign ministers from member and observer states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) came together in Budapest for a pre-summit meeting held ahead of the organization’s informal summit.
The US State Department has given the green light for a potential $100 million sale of AW-119Kx helicopters and related equipment to Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to a statement from the Pentagon on Tuesday.
Israel is pulling back its senior negotiation team from the hostage release talks in Doha after a week of what it called “intensive” but fruitless discussions, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced.
A 4.0 magnitude earthquake struck in the Marmara Sea off the coast of Istanbul’s Büyükçekmece district late Monday night, according to Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).
President Donald Trump has officially launched the $175 billion Golden Dome missile defense shield, a sweeping new program aimed at countering threats from China and Russia using advanced satellite technology.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment