The global economy, already fragile, now faces a new shock—this time from the United States. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff wave has dragged average U.S. duties to levels unseen in over a century. The trade war with China is escalating fast.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook attempts to map the damage. But it does so with caution. Its central message is not a forecast—it’s a warning.
“Nobody knows what Trump will do next,” the report implies.
“And no one can say how the world will respond.”
What we do know is this: elevated uncertainty is now the clearest economic reality.
The role of government, the IMF suggests, is to reduce that uncertainty. Trump’s administration, it argues, has chosen the opposite.
The global economy had just begun to stabilise. Inflation was falling. Labour markets were improving. Growth, while lower than pre-pandemic, was returning.
But fragilities remained. Many governments are saddled with debt. Interest rates are high. The old tools—monetary and fiscal—are harder to use.
Trump’s trade war hits in that context. And it’s already reshaping forecasts.
Global growth is projected to fall to 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024.
Recovery to 3% is expected only by 2026.
The figures reflect policy as of April 4. But events didn’t wait.
On April 9, Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days—then raised duties on Chinese goods. On April 12, China hit back.
As of mid-April, the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods stood at 115%. China’s rate on U.S. goods hit 146%.
The average U.S. tariff on global imports: 25%, up from just 3% in January.
This is more than a numbers game. The IMF explains how tariffs hurt the imposer:
The risk isn’t just economic—it’s systemic.
Brutal decoupling between the U.S. and China
Eroding trust in the U.S.
Currency shifts, capital flight, and political instability
Pressure on emerging economies with shrinking international support
Even the threat of major conflict
The IMF, by nature, doesn’t dive into geopolitics. But the shadows are clear.
Could the world step back from the edge?
But the report closes with realism, not hope.
We are not yet off the path to crisis. The question is whether we will choose to leave it.
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The Pentagon has threatened to designate artificial intelligence firm Anthropic as a “supply chain risk” amid a dispute over the military use of its Claude AI model, according to a report published Monday.
Representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the United States are set to meet in Geneva for a third round of trilateral negotiations aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, even as both sides intensify military pressure on the ground.
Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon killed two people in the past 12 hours, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said on Tuesday.
The Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced on 16 February that the Honourable Janice Charette has been appointed as the next Chief Trade Negotiator to the United States.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said China has the power to bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, arguing that Beijing is enabling Moscow’s military campaign.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said the United States could evaluate its own interests separately from those of Israel in ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday (15 February) called it “troubling” a report by five European allies blaming Russia for killing late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny using a toxin from poison dart frogs.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday that Russia’s decision to change the leadership of its delegation for upcoming peace talks in Geneva appeared to be an attempt to delay progress.
Cuba’s fuel crisis has turned into a waste crisis, with garbage piling up on most street corners in Havana as many collection trucks lack enough petrol to operate.
Millions of Colombian roses have arrived in the United States just in time for Valentine’s Day, keeping the country on track as the world’s second-largest flower exporter. Between 15 January and 9 February, Colombia shipped roughly 65,000 tons of fresh-cut blooms.
Russia’s car market is continuing to receive tens of thousands of foreign-brand vehicles via China despite sanctions imposed after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a journalistic investigation has found.
Türkiye’s national energy company, TPAO, has struck a new cooperation deal with U.S. energy giant Chevron, signing a memorandum of understanding to explore joint oil and gas exploration and production opportunities, the Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Ministry announced on Thursday.
Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried about artificial intelligence (AI) creating more competition for software makers, keeping them on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.
U.S. stock markets finished mixed on Wednesday (28 January) as investors reacted calmly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, a decision that had been widely expected and largely priced in.
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