US approves $510M sale of munitions guidance kits to Israel
The US has authorised a potential $510 million sale of munitions guidance kits and related support to Israel, the State Department confirmed on Monday...
The global economy, already fragile, now faces a new shock—this time from the United States. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff wave has dragged average U.S. duties to levels unseen in over a century. The trade war with China is escalating fast.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook attempts to map the damage. But it does so with caution. Its central message is not a forecast—it’s a warning.
“Nobody knows what Trump will do next,” the report implies.
“And no one can say how the world will respond.”
What we do know is this: elevated uncertainty is now the clearest economic reality.
The role of government, the IMF suggests, is to reduce that uncertainty. Trump’s administration, it argues, has chosen the opposite.
The global economy had just begun to stabilise. Inflation was falling. Labour markets were improving. Growth, while lower than pre-pandemic, was returning.
But fragilities remained. Many governments are saddled with debt. Interest rates are high. The old tools—monetary and fiscal—are harder to use.
Trump’s trade war hits in that context. And it’s already reshaping forecasts.
Global growth is projected to fall to 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024.
Recovery to 3% is expected only by 2026.
The figures reflect policy as of April 4. But events didn’t wait.
On April 9, Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days—then raised duties on Chinese goods. On April 12, China hit back.
As of mid-April, the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods stood at 115%. China’s rate on U.S. goods hit 146%.
The average U.S. tariff on global imports: 25%, up from just 3% in January.
This is more than a numbers game. The IMF explains how tariffs hurt the imposer:
The risk isn’t just economic—it’s systemic.
Brutal decoupling between the U.S. and China
Eroding trust in the U.S.
Currency shifts, capital flight, and political instability
Pressure on emerging economies with shrinking international support
Even the threat of major conflict
The IMF, by nature, doesn’t dive into geopolitics. But the shadows are clear.
Could the world step back from the edge?
But the report closes with realism, not hope.
We are not yet off the path to crisis. The question is whether we will choose to leave it.
The U.S. economy faces a 40% risk of recession in the second half of 2025, JP Morgan analysts said on Wednesday, citing rising tariffs and stagflation concerns.
China has ramped up efforts to protect communities impacted by flood control measures, introducing stronger compensation policies and direct aid from the central government.
Severe rain in Venezuela has caused rivers to overflow and triggered landslides, sweeping away homes and collapsing a highway bridge, with five states affected and no casualties reported so far.
A malfunction in the radar transmission system at the Area Control Center in Milan suspended more than 300 flights at the weekend, across northwest Italy since Saturday evening according to Italy's air traffic controller Enav (National Agency for Flight Assistance).
Thousands of protesters rallied in Bangkok on Saturday, demanding Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resign as political and economic tensions mount.
Gold prices edged higher on Monday after slipping to their lowest level in more than a month, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and easing geopolitical tensions that have tempered safe-haven demand.
The French Riviera town of Cannes will restrict large cruise ships from docking starting from January 2026, as part of new efforts to manage over tourism and protect local infrastructure.
Polish refiner Orlen will not buy Russian oil for its Czech refinery after 30 June, Chief Executive Ireneusz Fafara said on Monday. "We freed Central Europe from Russian oil today," Fafara stated.
Starting today, British car and aerospace manufacturers will benefit from significant tariff reductions when exporting to the United States, thanks to the implementation of a landmark UK-US trade agreement. This move is expected to safeguard thousands of jobs in the United Kingdom.
Oil prices fell on Monday as an easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospect of another OPEC+ output hike in August improved supply expectations amid persistent uncertainty over the outlook for global demand.
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