The global economy, already fragile, now faces a new shock—this time from the United States. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff wave has dragged average U.S. duties to levels unseen in over a century. The trade war with China is escalating fast.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook attempts to map the damage. But it does so with caution. Its central message is not a forecast—it’s a warning.
“Nobody knows what Trump will do next,” the report implies.
“And no one can say how the world will respond.”
What we do know is this: elevated uncertainty is now the clearest economic reality.
The role of government, the IMF suggests, is to reduce that uncertainty. Trump’s administration, it argues, has chosen the opposite.
The global economy had just begun to stabilise. Inflation was falling. Labour markets were improving. Growth, while lower than pre-pandemic, was returning.
But fragilities remained. Many governments are saddled with debt. Interest rates are high. The old tools—monetary and fiscal—are harder to use.
Trump’s trade war hits in that context. And it’s already reshaping forecasts.
Global growth is projected to fall to 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024.
Recovery to 3% is expected only by 2026.
The figures reflect policy as of April 4. But events didn’t wait.
On April 9, Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days—then raised duties on Chinese goods. On April 12, China hit back.
As of mid-April, the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods stood at 115%. China’s rate on U.S. goods hit 146%.
The average U.S. tariff on global imports: 25%, up from just 3% in January.
This is more than a numbers game. The IMF explains how tariffs hurt the imposer:
The risk isn’t just economic—it’s systemic.
Brutal decoupling between the U.S. and China
Eroding trust in the U.S.
Currency shifts, capital flight, and political instability
Pressure on emerging economies with shrinking international support
Even the threat of major conflict
The IMF, by nature, doesn’t dive into geopolitics. But the shadows are clear.
Could the world step back from the edge?
But the report closes with realism, not hope.
We are not yet off the path to crisis. The question is whether we will choose to leave it.
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India has purchased crude oil from Iran for the first time in seven years, as supply disruptions in the Middle East threaten global energy markets.
British police have arrested a fourth person in connection with an arson attack on ambulances belonging to a Jewish community charity. The arrest took place at a London court on Saturday, where three other suspects were already appearing.
Senegal has taken steps to curb government spending by banning non-essential foreign travel for ministers, as rising global oil prices place increasing pressure on the country’s finances.
One U.S. crew member has been rescued after two American warplanes were downed over Iran and the Gulf, as the search continues for a missing pilot, while President Donald Trump has given Tehran 48 hours to agree to a deal to end the war.
The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote next week on a Bahraini resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and protect commercial shipping, diplomats said on Friday, amid opposition from China to any authorisation of force.
One crew member from a U.S. warplane shot down over Iran has been rescued, U.S. officials said, as a search continues for a second crew member.
The family of the late Virginia Giuffre have urged King Charles III to meet survivors of sexual abuse during his upcoming state visit to the United States.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis reshuffled his cabinet on Friday (3 April) in a bid to contain a growing scandal over the alleged fraudulent use of European Union farm subsidies.
Major automakers showcased new electric vehicles at the New York Auto Show this week, under the slogan “electrification is the future." However, weakening demand in the United States and intense competition with China are raising questions for markets across the globe, including the South Caucasus.
The U.S. national average retail price of petrol rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in over three years on Monday (30 March), according to GasBuddy data, as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets.
Japan and Indonesia will deepen coordination on energy security, Tokyo said, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts vital oil and gas flows to Asia.
China's three largest state-owned airlines have issued warnings regarding their financial outlook for the current year, acknowledging that the eruption of war involving Iran has driven jet fuel prices to unsustainable highs.
Stock markets across Asia fell on Monday as escalating conflict involving Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, fuelling fears of inflation and a potential global recession, with investors reacting to disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and prolonged hostilities.
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