The U.S. labor market is projected to remain stable in February, with job growth likely picking up and the unemployment rate holding at around 4.0%, despite growing concerns over trade policy uncertainty and deep federal spending cuts, according to economists.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report, set for release on Friday—the first under President Donald Trump’s administration—is anticipated to show an increase of about 160,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, compared with 143,000 in January. However, the report comes at a time when businesses are facing an unpredictable environment due to Trump’s fluid trade policies and significant federal budget uncertainties.
“Uncertainty, whether it’s in regulation or supply chain, is something employers hate most,” said Jane Oates, a senior policy advisor at WorkingNation. “It’s a really bad business atmosphere, and we could be headed for an ugly spring.”
The anticipated labor market gains may be partially offset by potential declines in federal employment. Michael Pugliese, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, noted that a hiring and funding freeze in the federal government could lead to a small decline in federal jobs—possibly between 5,000 and 10,000 positions—as the recent layoffs by the Department of Government Efficiency have mostly occurred outside the survey week.
Rising average hourly earnings are expected to continue, with forecasts indicating a 0.3% increase in February following a 0.5% surge in January, and annual wage growth holding steady at 4.1%. Nevertheless, these positive indicators come amid broader economic concerns. A drop in consumer spending and homebuilding, along with a surge in the trade deficit linked to new tariffs, have led some economists to downgrade GDP growth estimates to below 1.5% on an annualized basis, while the Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasts a contraction at a 2.4% rate.
“The economy has shown itself to be surprisingly resilient during the pandemic recovery cycle, which is encouraging,” said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. “But there are a lot of shocks now surging over businesses, including budget uncertainties and proposed tariffs on the scale that we have not seen since Smoot-Hawley in 1930.”
With the Federal Reserve maintaining its overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range—after cutting it by 100 basis points since September—the upcoming employment report will provide critical insight into the labor market’s ability to withstand the ongoing turbulence in trade policy and federal spending.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is set to visit Russia on Thursday, ahead of a second round of talks between Tehran and the United States regarding Iran's nuclear program. According to Russia’s RIA state news agency, Araqchi will meet with senior Russian officials during the visit.
Three U.S. senators are visiting Taiwan this week to discuss a range of issues, including trade, security, and regional concerns, as Taiwan continues its tariff talks with Washington.
China’s Ambassador to Spain, Yao Jing, stated that China is eager to be seen as a partner rather than a rival to the European Union, emphasizing the need for collaboration amidst shifting global dynamics and U.S. trade policies, which he described as "unilateral economic abuse."
Japan is set to engage in crucial tariff negotiations with the United States on Wednesday, marking one of the first tests of President Donald Trump’s willingness to adjust the sweeping import duties that have sent shockwaves through global markets and stoked fears of an impending recession.
South Korea's Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will head to Washington next week for a pivotal meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Seoul's finance ministry confirmed on Wednesday.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has postponed the next presidential election by several months, fueling speculation about his intention to seek a second term. The move allows him to complete his full six-year mandate and marks a potential shift toward greater political consolidation.
Türkiye has firmly rejected Greece's unilateral actions and claims regarding maritime spatial planning (MSP) in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, asserting that these actions will have no legal consequences for Ankara.
A passenger boat caught fire and capsized late Tuesday on the Congo River, killing at least 50 people and leaving hundreds more missing, officials confirmed Wednesday. The tragedy occurred near the northwestern town of Mbandaka in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
A new wave of attacks targeting French prisons has emerged overnight, with cars set on fire at several facilities, including at the Tarascon prison in southern France.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is set to visit Russia on Thursday, ahead of a second round of talks between Tehran and the United States regarding Iran's nuclear program. According to Russia’s RIA state news agency, Araqchi will meet with senior Russian officials during the visit.
A small plane crashed near Kopake, New York, on April 13, killing at 6 people. The Mitsubishi MU-2B aircraft, carrying six people, went down under unclear circumstances. This marks the second aviation accident in New York in a week, raising safety concerns.
Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief: here are the top news stories for April 10th, covering the latest developments you need to know.
A quiet Thursday afternoon at St. Peter’s Basilica turned into something extraordinary, as visitors caught a rare glimpse of Pope Francis — not in his familiar white papal robes, but dressed in black trousers and a striped blanket.
In a dramatic about-face, U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on newly implemented tariffs for dozens of countries — a move that eased market turmoil but further escalated tensions with China.
Several regions in Ukraine faced heightened alert on Palm Sunday, as reports of explosions and missile threats drew public attention and official responses.
China is tightening regulations on battery-powered vehicles and will require its automakers to comply with higher battery safety standards, aiming to reduce risks of fire and explosions in the fast-growing sector.
A freight train loaded with steel products, air conditioners, and other goods departed Wujiashan Station in Wuhan, marking the official launch of a regular freight service connecting central China with Central Asia.
Crude oil prices inched higher on global exchanges, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing market fluctuations.
Industrial production in the eurozone rose by 1.1% month-on-month in February, outperforming expectations, according to data released by Eurostat on Tuesday. Analysts had forecasted a modest 0.1% increase.
Tehran International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition (Iran Oil Show 2025) that will be held from May 8 to 11 is set to become the largest energy trade event in West Asia, - said Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs and Trade.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has postponed the next presidential election by several months, fueling speculation about his intention to seek a second term. The move allows him to complete his full six-year mandate and marks a potential shift toward greater political consolidation.
Türkiye has firmly rejected Greece's unilateral actions and claims regarding maritime spatial planning (MSP) in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, asserting that these actions will have no legal consequences for Ankara.
A passenger boat caught fire and capsized late Tuesday on the Congo River, killing at least 50 people and leaving hundreds more missing, officials confirmed Wednesday. The tragedy occurred near the northwestern town of Mbandaka in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
A new wave of attacks targeting French prisons has emerged overnight, with cars set on fire at several facilities, including at the Tarascon prison in southern France.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is set to visit Russia on Thursday, ahead of a second round of talks between Tehran and the United States regarding Iran's nuclear program. According to Russia’s RIA state news agency, Araqchi will meet with senior Russian officials during the visit.
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