Oil prices slip as OPEC+ weighs output hike and supply risks grow

Oil prices fell for the first time in three weeks, with expectations mounting that OPEC+ will raise production in July, Bloomberg reported.

Oil markets ended the week lower, with Brent crude dipping near $64 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling below $61. Bloomberg attributes the decline to signals that OPEC+ may approve a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day at its upcoming 1 June meeting.

The potential supply boost comes amid ongoing concerns about a global surplus and weakening demand, particularly as commercial stockpiles in the U.S. continue to rise. Brent and WTI have both lost roughly 2% this week, marking oil’s first weekly drop in nearly a month.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect OPEC+ to maintain its recent shift toward prioritising market share over prices, after easing output cuts faster than anticipated earlier this year. Oil prices have already fallen around 14% since January, touching their lowest levels since 2021.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a factor. Talks between Iran and the U.S. over Tehran’s nuclear programme continue, while tensions flared midweek over reports that Israel may target Iranian facilities. Meanwhile, the EU is considering lowering its price cap on Russian crude from $60 to $50 a barrel, citing reduced market impact from the current limit.

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