Greek central bank chief warns Trump tariffs could trim euro growth by up to 1 percentage point

Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warned in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday that US President Donald Trump’s new tariff measures could slow euro area economic growth by between 0.5 and 1 percentage point.

His comments come as EU nations consider targeted countermeasures on up to $28 billion of US imports - from items like dental floss to diamonds.

The 27-member bloc currently faces a 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, and cars, along with “reciprocal” tariffs of 20% on nearly all other goods, effective from Wednesday. Stournaras cautioned that the emerging global trade war might trigger a significant “negative demand shock” in the eurozone, potentially weakening economic activity and pushing inflation below central bank targets.

He explained, “A notable adverse impact on growth could lead to activity being much weaker than expected, dragging inflation below our targets.” The European Central Bank has estimated that a blanket 25% US tariff on European imports would reduce eurozone growth by 0.3 percentage points in the first year, a figure that could rise to half a percentage point if the EU enacts its own counter-tariffs.

Stournaras described the tariffs as deflationary measures and noted that some of the US actions have been “worse than expected,” contributing to an “unprecedented” degree of global policy uncertainty. With the next ECB rate decision set for April 17 and eurozone inflation easing to 2.2% in March from 2.3% in February, there is growing speculation about further interest rate cuts.

Trade between the US and the EU remains robust, with 2024 figures showing US imports from the EU at 334 billion euros, compared to 532 billion euros in EU exports to the United States. On April 2, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports along with higher duties on goods from roughly 60 countries, intensifying the trade dispute.

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