French debt risk premiums versus safe-haven German Bunds fell on Friday, after French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days and his top priority would be getting a 2025 budget adopted by parliament.
The gap between French and German yields DE10FR10=RR – a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt – fell to 73.50 basis points, its lowest since Nov. 21. It was last down 3.5 bps at 74.50 bps.
Michel Barnier, a veteran conservative, became the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history when he resigned on Thursday after parliament voted him out over his fiscal plans, barely three months after he was appointed.
Investors have worried that the most likely outcome of the resulting political crisis was the extension of the 2024 budget to 2025, implying a less restrictive fiscal policy threatening the ability of the government to curb a burgeoning deficit.
Far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen, who voted to oust Barnier, said on Thursday she had no plans to seek the removal of Macron and a budget could be passed within weeks.
"Her comments suggest the political deadlock may not be as stuck as suggested over the past few days," said Michiel Tukker, senior European rate strategist at ING.
"Of course, these are just words, and reaching a credible government budget that satisfies Le Pen's party will prove a challenging task."
According to Tukker, "the spread tightening was felt more broadly throughout rates markets", also affecting Italian BTPs and Spanish Bonos.
JOINT FUNDING PROSPECTS
The yield spread between BTPs and Bunds DE10IT10=RR dropped to 105.40 bps on Friday, its lowest level since October 2021. It was last down 1 bp to 107.60 bps.
"BTPs are taking another major leap as prospects of more joint funding on the European level for defence is boosting the convergence trade," said Michael Leister, strategist at Commerzbank.
Yield spreads have tightened on market hopes for joint issuance from the European Union, which could fund growth and ease the debt burden for over-leveraged economies.
EU countries are discussing a 500 billion euros joint fund for common defence projects and arms procurement, tapping bond markets to boost spending in anticipation of Donald Trump's White House return, the FT reported on Thursday.
Meanwhile, euro area benchmark Bund yields were on track for their first weekly rise in more than a month after reaching 2% on Monday as markets await key U.S. data later in the session.
U.S. payrolls could affect expectations for the Federal Reserve monetary easing path.
Germany's 10-year yield DE10YT=RR rose 0.5 bps to 2.11% and was set to end the week 2 bps higher.
Markets await the European Central Bank policy meeting next week, with investors fully pricing a 25 bps rate cut and no chance of a 50 bps move, while focusing on the rate outlook.
Many think the central bank will have to cut below the neutral rate as inflation risks falling below target.
The neutral rate – which many analysts see at 2% - is the theoretical interest rate that would keep the economy operating at full employment and stable inflation.
France has handed over control of a military base in Ivory Coast’s commercial capital, Abidjan, while retaining 80 military personnel for training. The move is part of a broader reduction of French forces in West and Central Africa.
French President Emmanuel Macron said France may deploy forces to secure peace in Ukraine after a ceasefire, urging Europe to strengthen its defence amid shifting US-Russia relations.
Masdar, TotalEnergies and EPointZero, the decarbonisation division of 2PointZero, have signed a Framework for Action (FFA) agreement to expand clean energy access across Africa and Asia.
France will host European leaders, including Britain's prime minister, on Monday for an emergency summit on the war in Ukraine. The hastily arranged meeting comes after U.S. officials suggested Europe would have no role in any talks on ending the conflict.
A grenade explosion at a bar in Grenoble injured 12 people on Wednesday night. Authorities are investigating the incident.
Menlo Park, CA, February 17, 2025 – Newly unsealed court documents from the case Kadrey v. Meta shed light on internal discussions among Meta employees about the use of copyrighted materials to train the company’s artificial intelligence models.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is asking Congress for nearly $40 billion in disaster funding to help Los Angeles recover and rebuild areas scorched by last month's devastating wildfires, the Washington Post reported on Friday citing a letter.
San Francisco, February 17, 2025 – OpenAI has terminated a group of Chinese ChatGPT accounts that were reportedly used to edit and debug code for an AI-powered social media surveillance tool.
‘We are already negotiating to work together in space, we can collaborate in this sphere also," Russian leader says
Vatican City, February 20, 2025 – Pope Francis will not appear in public on Sunday to lead his customary prayer with pilgrims, marking the second consecutive week of absence, the Vatican announced on Saturday.
A tragic crowd crush at New Delhi Railway Station on Saturday night left 18 dead and 10 injured as thousands of people, many heading to the Kumbh Mela festival, attempted to board delayed trains. The incident highlights the ongoing risks of overcrowding at public transportation hubs in India.
A Delta Air Lines regional jet flipped upside down upon landing at Toronto Pearson Airport on Monday, injuring 18 people. Officials are investigating whether strong winds and snow played a role in the incident.
Berlin, February 21, 2025 – German citizens will head to the polls on Sunday, February 23, for a snap general election after the coalition government collapsed late last year.
BERLIN, Feb 22 (Reuters) - NATO is planning to build a pipeline system from Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic to ensure a rapid supply of jet fuel for fighter aircraft in the event of a war with Russia, weekly German magazine Der Spiegel reported.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is asking Congress for nearly $40 billion in disaster funding to help Los Angeles recover and rebuild areas scorched by last month's devastating wildfires, the Washington Post reported on Friday citing a letter.
A second meeting between representatives of Russia and the United States is planned for the next two weeks, the RIA state news agency reported on Saturday, citing Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
Washington, D.C., February 21, 2025 – U.S. negotiators have reportedly raised the possibility of cutting Ukraine’s access to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service unless Kyiv reaches an agreement to grant the United States greater access to its critical minerals.
Hamas has begun releasing hostages from Gaza on Saturday in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, as Israel confirmed that a body handed over earlier was that of hostage Shiri Bibas.
Menlo Park, CA, February 17, 2025 – Newly unsealed court documents from the case Kadrey v. Meta shed light on internal discussions among Meta employees about the use of copyrighted materials to train the company’s artificial intelligence models.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is asking Congress for nearly $40 billion in disaster funding to help Los Angeles recover and rebuild areas scorched by last month's devastating wildfires, the Washington Post reported on Friday citing a letter.
San Francisco, February 17, 2025 – OpenAI has terminated a group of Chinese ChatGPT accounts that were reportedly used to edit and debug code for an AI-powered social media surveillance tool.
‘We are already negotiating to work together in space, we can collaborate in this sphere also," Russian leader says
Vatican City, February 20, 2025 – Pope Francis will not appear in public on Sunday to lead his customary prayer with pilgrims, marking the second consecutive week of absence, the Vatican announced on Saturday.
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