French debt risk premiums versus safe-haven German Bunds fell on Friday, after French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days and his top priority would be getting a 2025 budget adopted by parliament.
The gap between French and German yields DE10FR10=RR – a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt – fell to 73.50 basis points, its lowest since Nov. 21. It was last down 3.5 bps at 74.50 bps.
Michel Barnier, a veteran conservative, became the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history when he resigned on Thursday after parliament voted him out over his fiscal plans, barely three months after he was appointed.
Investors have worried that the most likely outcome of the resulting political crisis was the extension of the 2024 budget to 2025, implying a less restrictive fiscal policy threatening the ability of the government to curb a burgeoning deficit.
Far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen, who voted to oust Barnier, said on Thursday she had no plans to seek the removal of Macron and a budget could be passed within weeks.
"Her comments suggest the political deadlock may not be as stuck as suggested over the past few days," said Michiel Tukker, senior European rate strategist at ING.
"Of course, these are just words, and reaching a credible government budget that satisfies Le Pen's party will prove a challenging task."
According to Tukker, "the spread tightening was felt more broadly throughout rates markets", also affecting Italian BTPs and Spanish Bonos.
JOINT FUNDING PROSPECTS
The yield spread between BTPs and Bunds DE10IT10=RR dropped to 105.40 bps on Friday, its lowest level since October 2021. It was last down 1 bp to 107.60 bps.
"BTPs are taking another major leap as prospects of more joint funding on the European level for defence is boosting the convergence trade," said Michael Leister, strategist at Commerzbank.
Yield spreads have tightened on market hopes for joint issuance from the European Union, which could fund growth and ease the debt burden for over-leveraged economies.
EU countries are discussing a 500 billion euros joint fund for common defence projects and arms procurement, tapping bond markets to boost spending in anticipation of Donald Trump's White House return, the FT reported on Thursday.
Meanwhile, euro area benchmark Bund yields were on track for their first weekly rise in more than a month after reaching 2% on Monday as markets await key U.S. data later in the session.
U.S. payrolls could affect expectations for the Federal Reserve monetary easing path.
Germany's 10-year yield DE10YT=RR rose 0.5 bps to 2.11% and was set to end the week 2 bps higher.
Markets await the European Central Bank policy meeting next week, with investors fully pricing a 25 bps rate cut and no chance of a 50 bps move, while focusing on the rate outlook.
Many think the central bank will have to cut below the neutral rate as inflation risks falling below target.
The neutral rate – which many analysts see at 2% - is the theoretical interest rate that would keep the economy operating at full employment and stable inflation.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was banned from running for public office for five years after being convicted of embezzlement, ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race. She received a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, and a €100,000 fine. Le Pen plans to appeal.
AnewZ provides an examination of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far-right National Rally party, and explores her ascent in French politics, her controversial policy positions, and the recent legal challenges she faces.
France’s constitutional court ruled that politicians can be barred from office immediately if convicted of a crime, raising the possibility that far-right leader Marine Le Pen could be disqualified from the 2027 presidential race if found guilty in her upcoming embezzlement trial.
French prosecutors requested a seven-year prison sentence and a €300,000 fine for former President Nicolas Sarkozy in his trial over allegations of accepting illegal financing for his 2007 presidential campaign from the former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
President Trump confirmed he is serious about a potential third term, despite constitutional limits, saying it is “far too early” to decide. While U.S. presidents are restricted to two terms, Trump allies are exploring ways to challenge this rule ahead of the 2028 election.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was banned from running for public office for five years after being convicted of embezzlement, ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race. She received a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, and a €100,000 fine. Le Pen plans to appeal.
Paul Marchant has resigned as CEO of Primark with immediate effect after admitting to an "error of judgment" in a social interaction last year. Parent company AB Foods expressed disappointment, citing the importance of integrity. Finance director Eoin Tonge will serve as interim CEO.
Abu Dhabi will host International Jazz Day 2025, featuring a star-studded gala at Etihad Arena on April 30. Broadcast worldwide, the event will showcase top jazz, blues, and classical artists, including Herbie Hancock and Marcus Miller.
Three of the four U.S. Army soldiers who went missing in Lithuania last week when their vehicle sunk in a peat bog have been found dead. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda expressed deep sorrow and stated that the search for the remaining soldier is ongoing.
Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) pilots, monitoring a Chinese navy warship as it navigated Australian waters, were alerted to a live-fire exercise via a civilian radio broadcast, defense officials revealed on Tuesday.
A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar’s Sagaing region, followed by a 6.4-magnitude tremor, killing 2056 people and leaving 3,900 injured. The quake caused building collapses in Myanmar and Thailand, prompting emergency declarations and ongoing rescue efforts.
As the world shifts toward clean energy at an ever-accelerating pace, large economies are scrambling to secure reliable supply chains for rare earth minerals. These minerals, once seen as mere industrial components, have become a political tool in the global power struggle
Russian forces carried out a drone attack on Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, late Wednesday, injuring at least twenty one people and causing structural damage, according to Ukrainian officials.
President Trump confirmed he is serious about a potential third term, despite constitutional limits, saying it is “far too early” to decide. While U.S. presidents are restricted to two terms, Trump allies are exploring ways to challenge this rule ahead of the 2028 election.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was banned from running for public office for five years after being convicted of embezzlement, ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race. She received a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, and a €100,000 fine. Le Pen plans to appeal.
Three of the four U.S. Army soldiers who went missing in Lithuania last week when their vehicle sunk in a peat bog have been found dead. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda expressed deep sorrow and stated that the search for the remaining soldier is ongoing.
President Trump confirmed he is serious about a potential third term, despite constitutional limits, saying it is “far too early” to decide. While U.S. presidents are restricted to two terms, Trump allies are exploring ways to challenge this rule ahead of the 2028 election.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was banned from running for public office for five years after being convicted of embezzlement, ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race. She received a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, and a €100,000 fine. Le Pen plans to appeal.
Paul Marchant has resigned as CEO of Primark with immediate effect after admitting to an "error of judgment" in a social interaction last year. Parent company AB Foods expressed disappointment, citing the importance of integrity. Finance director Eoin Tonge will serve as interim CEO.
Abu Dhabi will host International Jazz Day 2025, featuring a star-studded gala at Etihad Arena on April 30. Broadcast worldwide, the event will showcase top jazz, blues, and classical artists, including Herbie Hancock and Marcus Miller.
Three of the four U.S. Army soldiers who went missing in Lithuania last week when their vehicle sunk in a peat bog have been found dead. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda expressed deep sorrow and stated that the search for the remaining soldier is ongoing.
Download the AnewZ app
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment