Southern California Edison’s upgraded wildfire models misjudged the Eaton Canyon fire’s scale by tenfold, raising concerns over its disaster preparedness as the blaze became one of the most destructive in U.S. history.
Southern California Edison’s (SCE) internal wildfire forecasts vastly underestimated the scale of the January Eaton Canyon fire in Los Angeles, predicting only 1,000 acres would be affected—while the blaze ultimately consumed around 14,000 acres. The discrepancy raises questions over the utility’s fire modeling capabilities, which had been upgraded with AI, advanced computing, and extensive datasets following state-level initiatives launched in 2019.
According to documents reviewed by Reuters, SCE’s miscalculations suggest limitations in how the models simulated fire spread, particularly in urban environments. Despite using 13 billion simulations across millions of ignition points and weather scenarios, SCE’s predictions covered just eight hours of fire activity, whereas the most destructive damage from the Eaton Canyon fire occurred later. The blaze destroyed roughly 9,400 structures and killed 17 people.
Though the exact cause of the Eaton fire remains under investigation, lawsuits have claimed that SCE's decision to keep some power lines active in the Altadena area may have contributed. The utility has defended its fire modeling, with Raymond Fugere, SCE’s asset intelligence director, stating the forecasts remain “actionable” and useful for decision-making. However, he acknowledged that local fuel types and wind variations may have affected simulation accuracy.
Stanford wildfire policy expert Michael Wara criticised the models for being better suited to wildland environments rather than urban settings, noting that fires like Eaton Canyon rapidly transition from vegetation to structure-based conflagrations.
Technosylva, an SCE partner and state-funded firm, reported having forecast the scale of the Los Angeles wildfires five days ahead. Yet SCE’s models also significantly underestimated the size of the concurrent Palisades fire, predicting 1,000 acres when more than 23,000 were ultimately burned.
Together, the two wildfires destroyed over 16,000 structures and resulted in an estimated $250 billion in economic losses. SCE has stated it will review its modeling strategy and consider extending simulations to 24-hour timeframes, though it warned longer projections introduce greater uncertainty.
In filings submitted in May, the company admitted the January 2025 fires have underscored the challenges of modelling fire spread into dense, built environments. SCE plans to invest $8 million this year into improving fire science and modeling—a fourfold increase from 2018.
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Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief: here are the top news stories for June 8th, covering the latest developments you need to know.
Presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay is in critical condition after being shot three times — including twice in the head — during a campaign event in Bogotá.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has condemned U.S. immigration raids and National Guard deployment in Los Angeles, calling for reforms instead of enforcement.
Israel’s military says it has identified the body of top Hamas commander Mohammed Sinwar beneath a hospital in southern Gaza.
A 30-year-old woman was shot by police in Munich on Saturday evening after stabbing two people at Theresienwiese, a central park best known for hosting Oktoberfest.
Italian efforts to ease citizenship laws and tighten labor protections failed on Monday after low voter turnout rendered the referendums invalid, marking a political win for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and a blow to the centre-left opposition.
Canada will reach NATO’s 2% defense spending target this fiscal year—years ahead of schedule—Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Monday, pledging billions in new military investments amid rising global security concerns.
More than 400 Stagecoach bus drivers in Scotland have begun an all-out strike from June 9 over a pay dispute, causing major disruptions across Ayrshire, Lanarkshire, and parts of Glasgow.
A collision involving a student bus and a vehicle on Malaysia’s East-West Highway has left at least 15 people dead and dozens injured, prompting condolences and support directives from national authorities.
The Church of England is set to invest a record $2.2 billion over three years to support clergy and parishes, aiming to fuel a revival in church attendance.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed Monday that Britain is fully involved in Ukraine’s attacks against Russia, warning of a growing terrorist threat and criticising Western missile policies.
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