Potential policy flashpoints between Poland's pro-Europe government and new president

Poland's new president Karol Nawrocki won with 50.89%, setting up clashes with PM Tusk's pro-EU government on abortion, judiciary, Ukraine policy, and EU ties- threatening key reforms and deepening the nation’s political divide.

Polish nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki won the second round of the country's presidential election with 50.89% of the votes, the electoral commission said on Monday, in a blow to the reform agenda of the pro-European government.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk swept to power in 2023 with a broad alliance of leftist and centrist parties, on a promise to undo changes made by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) that the European Union said had undermined democracy and women's and minority rights.

However, reforms have been slow, mainly because - the government contends - Poland's outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has been vetoing bills. Nawrocki is expected to continue to block them.

Below are the key issues on which the new president and the government may collide. 

Social Issues

Tusk won the 2023 parliamentary vote partly on promises to end a near-total ban on abortion introduced by the socially conservative PiS government. 

Tusk and the Left promised to allow abortion on demand until 12 weeks and restore the right to termination in case of foetal abnormalities, but the coalition was unable to agree on a bill. It also argued that Duda would veto any liberalisation. 

Nawrocki had said he would not sign any bill liberalising the right to abortion, even in the case of foetal abnormalities. He also opposes a bill on same sex partnerships proposed by the Left.

Nawrocki campaigned on a promise to ensure that economic and social policies favour Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine.

Rule of Law

During its two terms in government from 2015 to 2023, PiS introduced judicial reforms which Brussels said undermined the rule of law and which critics blamed for chaos in the judiciary.

The European Union's top court ruled that a new procedure for appointing judges did not guarantee their impartiality, opening the way for their rulings to be questioned. 

The Constitutional Tribunal issued rulings stating that Poland's constitution had primacy over EU law, undermining a key principle of the Union. Brussels took Poland to court over the ruling, and the current government does not recognise it. 

However, Tusk's efforts to roll back the changes have so far failed, blocked by Duda who keeps appointing judges under PiS rules. Nawrocki has signalled he supports PiS's changes, suggesting that the deadlock will continue.

Duda also blocked the government's efforts to bring PiS politicians to justice, pardoning two members of the former government sentenced for abuse of power in their previous roles. Critics have said Nawrocki could come under pressure from PiS to pardon its politicians. 

Domestic Politics

Nawrocki's win may undermine Tusk's political project and could be a prelude to the return of PiS to power in 2027 or even earlier if the ruling centrist coalition crumbles and a snap election is held.

Tusk had said he wants to renegotiate the coalition agreement and reshuffle his team after the presidential election to make it leaner and more efficient.

Nawrocki will also get to nominate the new governor of the National Bank of Poland who leads the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) which decides on monetary policy, as well as other high-ranking officials. 

Ukraine

While Nawrocki supports giving military aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia's invasion, he is opposed to Kyiv joining Western alliances such as NATO. He also declared he would not agree to the deployment of Polish troops on Ukrainian territory.

Nawrocki rejects suggestions that his stance is pro-Russian, while also saying that Poland has the right to raise sensitive issues with Kyiv such as exhumations of the remains of Polish victims killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War Two.  

EU, U.S.

Nawrocki vows to resist what he sees as efforts by Tusk and Trzaskowski to promote a European super-state, cede Polish national prerogatives to Brussels and undermine the country's security relationship with the United States.

In a meeting with Slawomir Mentzen, the far-right candidate who was in third place in the first round of the election, he signed a declaration that he will not agree to any European treaties that would "weaken the position of Poland".

Nawrocki prioritises closer security ties with the U.S., especially on defence. 

While his liberal opponent Rafal Trzaskowski played up his European credentials, Nawrocki met Donald Trump at the White House and received the U.S. president's backing for his bid for Poland's top job.

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