A fragment of the Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482, launched in 1972, is expected to crash back to Earth between 9 and 10 May, according to space agencies monitoring its re-entry.
The spacecraft, originally sent on a mission to Venus, failed to escape low Earth orbit and broke into four pieces. One of those fragments—believed to be the lander capsule—is predicted to re-enter the atmosphere around 09:16 BST on 10 May, though timing could vary by several hours.
The European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA have confirmed that while much of the object will likely burn up, a part of it could survive due to its durable, heat-resistant design built to withstand Venus's harsh environment. The capsule, about a metre wide and weighing nearly half a tonne, could land anywhere between 51.7° north and south latitude—a zone that includes most of the inhabited world, from London in the north to the southern tip of South America.
Despite this, experts emphasize the risk to people is extremely low. "It's much more likely that you win the lottery than that you get impacted by this piece of space debris," said Stijn Lemmens, Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst at ESA.
Originally fitted with a parachute system to aid its descent on Venus, the lander's equipment is expected to have long since degraded after over 50 years in orbit.
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