The OPEC+ alliance announced on Saturday it will increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, marking the second consecutive month of accelerated output hikes despite falling prices and dimming demand forecasts.
The decision was made following a virtual meeting lasting just over an hour. In a statement, the group asserted that market fundamentals remain healthy and global oil inventories are low, justifying the continued unwind of earlier production cuts.
The increase comes as Brent crude prices have dropped to a four-year low, closing at $61.29 per barrel on Friday, driven in part by fears of economic slowdown linked to new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and surplus concerns following OPEC+’s larger-than-expected May supply boost.
Strategic Shift and Internal Tensions
Saturday’s decision follows rising pressure from Saudi Arabia, OPEC+’s de facto leader, to accelerate the rollback of previous output cuts, particularly targeting Iraq and Kazakhstan for repeated non-compliance with production quotas.
According to sources within the group, Riyadh is keen to discipline underperforming members by pushing the broader coalition toward faster normalization of production levels. The push also aligns with calls from President Trump, who is set to visit Saudi Arabia later this month, urging OPEC+ to help ease energy prices.
The June output increase forms part of a gradual phase-out of a 2.2 million bpd production cut agreed by eight OPEC+ members in December. These members committed to monthly hikes of about 138,000 bpd starting April 2025. With the upcoming increase, combined hikes for April, May, and June will total 960,000 bpd, unwinding roughly 44% of the original cut, according to Reuters calculations.
Market Reaction and Outlook
Oil markets are expected to react sharply when trading resumes on Monday. Analysts at UBS predict further price declines amid mounting concerns over a global supply glut and fragile demand outlook.
“We continue to call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, reflecting a cautious interpretation of OPEC+’s approach.
Kazakhstan’s recent defiance—producing above its quota and prioritizing domestic interests—has fueled internal tensions. Meanwhile, Russia, though closer to compliance, continues to underperform on agreed targets. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets noted that “compliance again appears to be the key focus,” as the group eyes broader discipline ahead of its next ministerial meeting on May 28.
Despite the recent increases, OPEC+ is still collectively cutting nearly 5 million bpd, with many of those reductions scheduled to remain until end-2026.
Kuwait’s oil minister stated that Saturday’s decisions would play a “significant role” in shaping future policy, signaling that more recalibrations could follow depending on market developments and member compliance.
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The Organization of Petroleum exporting countries OPEC+ is likely to consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for November at its meeting next Sunday as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to regain more market share, said sources familiar with the talks.
Crude oil flowed on Saturday (27 September) through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Türkiye for the first time in two-and-a-half years, after an interim deal broke the deadlock, Iraq's oil ministry said.
World oil supply is expected to grow more rapidly this year, with a surplus potentially expanding in 2026 as OPEC+ members increase output and production from non-OPEC countries rises, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This contrasts with OPEC's revised outlook.
Kuwait says oil prices will likely stay below $72 per barrel as OPEC monitors global supply trends and U.S. policy signals. The remarks come during market uncertainty fueled by new U.S. tariffs on India and possible sanctions on Russia.
Indonesian authorities evacuated more than 900 people from nearby villages and were helping 170 stranded climbers return safely after the eruption of Semeru volcano, one of the country's tallest mountains.
Iran's air force, heavily reliant on aging F-14A Tomcat jets, faces a growing technological gap as its neighbors rapidly modernize their air forces with advanced fighter jets and air defense systems.
Ukraine says it will seek almost $44 billion from Russia to cover the climate damage caused by wartime emissions, marking the first attempt by any nation to bill an aggressor for its carbon footprint during conflict.
A fresh wave of floods and landslides triggered by heavy rainfall in central Vietnam since the weekend has claimed at least eight lives, according to a government report on Wednesday. Traders have also cautioned that the extreme weather could disrupt the ongoing coffee harvest.
Germany has returned 12 royal-era cultural artefacts to Ethiopia in a ceremony in Addis Ababa, marking a formal step in ongoing cultural cooperation between the two countries.
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