The OPEC+ alliance announced on Saturday it will increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, marking the second consecutive month of accelerated output hikes despite falling prices and dimming demand forecasts.
The decision was made following a virtual meeting lasting just over an hour. In a statement, the group asserted that market fundamentals remain healthy and global oil inventories are low, justifying the continued unwind of earlier production cuts.
The increase comes as Brent crude prices have dropped to a four-year low, closing at $61.29 per barrel on Friday, driven in part by fears of economic slowdown linked to new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and surplus concerns following OPEC+’s larger-than-expected May supply boost.
Strategic Shift and Internal Tensions
Saturday’s decision follows rising pressure from Saudi Arabia, OPEC+’s de facto leader, to accelerate the rollback of previous output cuts, particularly targeting Iraq and Kazakhstan for repeated non-compliance with production quotas.
According to sources within the group, Riyadh is keen to discipline underperforming members by pushing the broader coalition toward faster normalization of production levels. The push also aligns with calls from President Trump, who is set to visit Saudi Arabia later this month, urging OPEC+ to help ease energy prices.
The June output increase forms part of a gradual phase-out of a 2.2 million bpd production cut agreed by eight OPEC+ members in December. These members committed to monthly hikes of about 138,000 bpd starting April 2025. With the upcoming increase, combined hikes for April, May, and June will total 960,000 bpd, unwinding roughly 44% of the original cut, according to Reuters calculations.
Market Reaction and Outlook
Oil markets are expected to react sharply when trading resumes on Monday. Analysts at UBS predict further price declines amid mounting concerns over a global supply glut and fragile demand outlook.
“We continue to call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, reflecting a cautious interpretation of OPEC+’s approach.
Kazakhstan’s recent defiance—producing above its quota and prioritizing domestic interests—has fueled internal tensions. Meanwhile, Russia, though closer to compliance, continues to underperform on agreed targets. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets noted that “compliance again appears to be the key focus,” as the group eyes broader discipline ahead of its next ministerial meeting on May 28.
Despite the recent increases, OPEC+ is still collectively cutting nearly 5 million bpd, with many of those reductions scheduled to remain until end-2026.
Kuwait’s oil minister stated that Saturday’s decisions would play a “significant role” in shaping future policy, signaling that more recalibrations could follow depending on market developments and member compliance.
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday that it will introduce a licensing system for steel exports starting in 2026, covering around 300 s...
Venezuela’s oil shipments have plunged following the United States’ seizure of a tanker earlier this week....
The Kremlin on Friday dismissed proposals for a ceasefire to allow a territorial referendum in Ukraine, describing any pause in hostilities as a tacti...
A new batch of photographs from Jeffrey Epstein’s estate has been released by the House Oversight Committee, shedding light on the financier’s con...
The European Union has announced plans to indefinitely freeze Russian assets held within the bloc, in a move aimed at ensuring up to $246 billion in R...
OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil production levels at meetings scheduled for Sunday, as the alliance weighs the risks of an emerging supply glut against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, four OPEC+ sources told reporters this week.
The Organization of Petroleum exporting countries OPEC+ is likely to consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for November at its meeting next Sunday as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to regain more market share, said sources familiar with the talks.
Crude oil flowed on Saturday (27 September) through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Türkiye for the first time in two-and-a-half years, after an interim deal broke the deadlock, Iraq's oil ministry said.
World oil supply is expected to grow more rapidly this year, with a surplus potentially expanding in 2026 as OPEC+ members increase output and production from non-OPEC countries rises, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This contrasts with OPEC's revised outlook.
Japan has lifted a tsunami advisory issued after an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 hit the country's northeastern region on Friday (12 December), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said. The JMA had earlier put the earthquake's preliminary magnitude at 6.7.
The United States issued new sanctions targeting Venezuela on Thursday, imposing curbs on three nephews of President Nicolas Maduro's wife, as well as six crude oil tankers and shipping companies linked to them, as Washington ramps up pressure on Caracas.
Iran is preparing to host a multilateral regional meeting next week in a bid to mediate between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Kyiv has escalated its naval campaign against Moscow’s economic lifelines, claiming a successful strike on a vessel suspected of skirting international sanctions within the Black Sea.
The resignation of Bulgaria's government on Thursday (11 December) puts an end to an increasingly unpopular coalition but is likely to usher in a period of prolonged political instability on the eve of the Black Sea nation's entry into the euro zone.
Türkiye’s Trade Minister Omer Bolat said Friday that discussions in Washington with U.S. officials have strengthened efforts to expand bilateral trade, moving closer to a $100 billion target.
Greek farmers blocked the Port of Thessaloniki on Friday as part of nationwide protests demanding delayed European Union subsidies and compensation for rising production costs and livestock losses.
Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif held talks on Friday during the International Peace and Trust Forum in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, focusing on bilateral relations as well as regional and global issues
ussian President Vladimir Putin described Moscow’s relations with Baghdad as historically strong and unbroken during a meeting with Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid in Turkmenistan.
Hungary has strongly criticised NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s warning that Russia could be capable of attacking the alliance within five years, with Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó describing the remarks as irresponsible and dangerous.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment