The OPEC+ alliance announced on Saturday it will increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, marking the second consecutive month of accelerated output hikes despite falling prices and dimming demand forecasts.
The decision was made following a virtual meeting lasting just over an hour. In a statement, the group asserted that market fundamentals remain healthy and global oil inventories are low, justifying the continued unwind of earlier production cuts.
The increase comes as Brent crude prices have dropped to a four-year low, closing at $61.29 per barrel on Friday, driven in part by fears of economic slowdown linked to new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and surplus concerns following OPEC+’s larger-than-expected May supply boost.
Strategic Shift and Internal Tensions
Saturday’s decision follows rising pressure from Saudi Arabia, OPEC+’s de facto leader, to accelerate the rollback of previous output cuts, particularly targeting Iraq and Kazakhstan for repeated non-compliance with production quotas.
According to sources within the group, Riyadh is keen to discipline underperforming members by pushing the broader coalition toward faster normalization of production levels. The push also aligns with calls from President Trump, who is set to visit Saudi Arabia later this month, urging OPEC+ to help ease energy prices.
The June output increase forms part of a gradual phase-out of a 2.2 million bpd production cut agreed by eight OPEC+ members in December. These members committed to monthly hikes of about 138,000 bpd starting April 2025. With the upcoming increase, combined hikes for April, May, and June will total 960,000 bpd, unwinding roughly 44% of the original cut, according to Reuters calculations.
Market Reaction and Outlook
Oil markets are expected to react sharply when trading resumes on Monday. Analysts at UBS predict further price declines amid mounting concerns over a global supply glut and fragile demand outlook.
“We continue to call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, reflecting a cautious interpretation of OPEC+’s approach.
Kazakhstan’s recent defiance—producing above its quota and prioritizing domestic interests—has fueled internal tensions. Meanwhile, Russia, though closer to compliance, continues to underperform on agreed targets. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets noted that “compliance again appears to be the key focus,” as the group eyes broader discipline ahead of its next ministerial meeting on May 28.
Despite the recent increases, OPEC+ is still collectively cutting nearly 5 million bpd, with many of those reductions scheduled to remain until end-2026.
Kuwait’s oil minister stated that Saturday’s decisions would play a “significant role” in shaping future policy, signaling that more recalibrations could follow depending on market developments and member compliance.
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) exit by the United Arab Emirates has largely been viewed through a narrow economic lens: higher Emirati output, potential increases by Saudi Arabia and others to protect market share, and downward pressure on global prices.
Kazakhstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC+ countries have agreed a paper-based modest oil output hike for next month, raising the output targets to 188,000 barrels a day in June.
The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC+ on 1 May has put renewed focus on one of the most influential groups in global energy - and how its decisions can shape oil prices worldwide.
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