Ukraine may need to import 6.3 bcm of gas for next winter as reserves hit record low

Ukraine may need to import up to 6.3 billion cubic metres of gas for the 2025/26 winter season, as war-related damage to key infrastructure has pushed gas reserves to a record low. Former gas transit chief Serhiy Makogon warns that urgent funding and months of high-capacity imports will be required

Ukraine may need to import up to 6.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas for the 2025/26 winter season, as its reserves have dropped to a historic low due to war-related damage to energy infrastructure, according to Serhiy Makogon, the former head of the country’s gas transit operator.

Posting on Telegram, Makogon explained that Ukraine was forced to accelerate gas withdrawals from storage and boost imports during the winter and spring after Russian missile strikes hit production facilities in the east.

Citing data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), he noted that as of April 16—marking the end of the heating season—gas storage levels had fallen to just 0.7 bcm, or 2.22% of total capacity, the lowest on record.

Makogon estimated Ukraine needs to accumulate at least 12.8 bcm of gas before next winter, including 4.6 bcm of buffer gas required to maintain operational pressure in the system. Based on domestic production, he calculated that imports of at least 5.5 bcm, and ideally 6.3 bcm, would be necessary.

In contrast, state energy firm Naftogaz has estimated the need at a lower 4.6 bcm. Even at that level, Makogon warned, the cost could reach up to $3 billion—while current funding can only cover about 0.4 bcm.

He emphasized that the government and Naftogaz must secure substantial financial support to close the gap. With existing infrastructure, Ukraine can inject up to 1.5 bcm of gas per month into storage, meaning a full four months of imports at maximum capacity will be needed to meet the target.

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