Senior Trump administration officials are privately acknowledging that a Ukraine peace deal is unlikely in the coming months, despite early hopes of brokering a ceasefire by spring.
According to two U.S. officials who spoke to Reuters, the White House and State Department are now drawing up fresh plans to pressure both Kyiv and Moscow, as the war shows no signs of ending. The conflict, now in its third year, has cost hundreds of thousands of lives and risks drawing NATO closer to direct confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia.
President Trump, who entered office promising swift peace, is said to be increasingly irritated. The White House believes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is stalling negotiations, especially over a proposed U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement. But recent frustrations have turned toward Moscow.
Over the weekend, officials reviewed ways to force Russia back to the table, including possible secondary sanctions and tariff hikes on oil buyers. In an interview, Trump threatened tariffs of up to 50% on Russian oil exports, responding to Putin’s remarks questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Baltic ministers last week that peace in Ukraine remains distant. National Security Council spokesperson James Hewitt confirmed that the administration is now considering further sanctions, saying: “President Trump was clear he will consider imposing secondary sanctions on all oil coming out of Russia if they are not serious about bringing this conflict to a peaceful resolution.”
Yet Moscow remains defiant. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said current U.S. peace proposals fail to address what Russia considers the core causes of the war.
Putin's demands remain high: a rollback of NATO operations in Europe and a ban on peacekeepers in Ukraine. Western officials say these “maximalist” requests are non-starters.
Despite early hopes that sanctions might pressure the Kremlin, U.S. officials are now less convinced. Trump's team, including Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Ukraine envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg, are debating how much ground the West can give without compromising core strategic interests.
Meanwhile, tensions with Kyiv continue. Trump accused Zelensky of trying to exit a rare earth minerals deal seen as key to U.S. involvement. “He’s trying to back out... and if he does that he’s got some problems, big, big problems,” Trump said.
The White House is reportedly reviewing the terms of that deal to make it more acceptable to Kyiv. However, ceasefire efforts around energy infrastructure and the Black Sea have stalled, with both sides continuing attacks despite initial agreements.
While public statements from Trump remain optimistic, confidence inside the administration is faltering. Talks have not broken down completely—but hopes for a quick deal are fading fast.
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