Climate Change emerges as critical destabilizing factor in Afghanistan

Climate change has become a critical destabilizing factor in Afghanistan, worsening the country's already severe economic and social instability.

A recent study by the Afghanistan Analysts Network shows that Afghanistan loses around 550 million dollars each year under normal rainfall conditions, with losses jumping to as much as 3 billion dollars in years of extreme drought.

Despite contributing almost nothing to global carbon emissions, Afghanistan remains one of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.  

The economic damage from climate-related disasters is staggering. The World Bank estimates that floods alone cause about 54 million dollars in annual losses, with catastrophic flooding in some years exceeding 500 million dollars in damages. Droughts are even more devastating, costing Afghanistan 280 million dollars per year on average, and up to 3 billion dollars in the worst cases. Beyond floods and droughts, Afghanistan faces frequent avalanches in the Hindu Kush mountains, which destroy lives and infrastructure, particularly in winter.

According to the World Bank’s 2017 Disaster Risk Profile, around 2 million people and over 4 billion dollars in assets, including 10,000 kilometers of roads, are at risk from such disasters. Landslides, worsened by heavy rain, deforestation, and earthquakes, threaten more than 3 million people and 6 billion dollars in infrastructure, including hundreds of schools and health centers.  

Other climate-related threats, though harder to measure, still take a heavy toll. Extreme heat, vanishing wetlands, sandstorms, hailstorms, and shrinking water supplies all contribute to Afghanistan’s growing instability. Forest fires, brutal cold waves, and disruptions to hydropower add millions more in damages each year.  

International climate agreements like the Paris Accord emphasize that wealthy nations, responsible for most global emissions, should help poorer countries like Afghanistan cope with climate change. However, since the Taliban took power, donors have frozen 28 climate adaptation projects worth 826 million dollars due to sanctions. Only humanitarian aid has continued, while long-term climate resilience programs remain stalled.

Although Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities were excluded from the COP28 climate summit in the UAE, they attended COP29 as observers after an invitation from Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s National Environmental Protection Agency has drafted a new climate strategy, seeking 3.48 billion dollars in funding from 2025 to 2030. But without formal international recognition, securing this money seems unlikely.  

In the absence of foreign support, Afghanistan is turning to green energy projects. The country’s national power company recently met with a Turkish firm to discuss solar, wind, and other renewable energy initiatives. Yet these efforts are small compared to the scale of the crisis. Afghanistan has received almost none of the climate adaptation funds promised to the world’s poorest nations, leaving it increasingly exposed to environmental disasters.  

As temperatures rise and extreme weather becomes more frequent, Afghanistan’s situation grows more dire. Without urgent action and international cooperation, climate change will continue to fuel instability, pushing an already fragile nation deeper into crisis. 

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