German conservatives win election but far-right AfD surges, exit polls show

Germany's conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, won the national election, positioning him to become the next chancellor. The far-right AfD secured its best-ever result, while coalition talks face challenges over migration and dealing with the AfD in the context of Germany's history.

Germany's opposition conservatives won the national election on Sunday, putting leader Friedrich Merz on track to be the next chancellor while the far-right Alternative for Germany came in second, its best ever result, exit polls showed.

Following a campaign roiled by a series of violent attacks, and interventions by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc won 28.5% of the vote, followed by the AfD with 20%, an exit poll published by ZDF public broadcaster showed.

Merz, 69, has no previous government experience but has promised to provide greater leadership than Chancellor Olaf Scholz and to liaise more with key allies, restoring Germany to the heart of Europe.

A brash economic liberal who has shifted the conservatives to the right, he is considered the antithesis of former conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years.

Short of a majority in an increasingly fragmented political landscape, however, his conservatives will have to sound out partners to form a coalition. 

Those negotiations are certain to be tricky after a campaign which exposed sharp divisions over migration and how to deal with the AfD in a country where far-right politics carry a particularly strong stigma due to its Nazi past.

That could leave Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe's largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.

It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe even as it deals with a host of challenges including U.S. President Donald Trump threatening a trade war and attempting to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.

Germany, which has an export-oriented economy and long relied on the United States for its security, is particularly vulnerable.

Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008. 

Attitudes towards migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its "Refugees Welcome" culture during Europe's migrant crisis in 2015, that the AfD has both driven and harnessed. 

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