Why these four countries are moving ahead of other EU candidates

The European Union's decision to simultaneously advance accession talks with Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Albania marks its most ambitious enlargement effort in more than two decades.

But behind the symbolism lies a strategic calculation shaped by war, security risks and the bloc's long-term geopolitical future.

According to political analyst Jelena Novakov, the acceleration is driven less by economics than by security concerns, particularly the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine and the EU's desire to prevent instability on its eastern and southeastern frontiers. 

Novakov argues that the four countries currently receiving the most attention have one thing in common: they sit at the intersection of Europe's security concerns.

Montenegro, she notes, has aligned itself closely with EU foreign policy, introducing visas for Russian nationals and implementing sanctions against Russia. 

Moldova, meanwhile, is viewed in Brussels as particularly vulnerable to Russian interference, especially during elections. Novakov says EU officials are determined to avoid “a repeat of the Georgian scenario”, which explains why Moldova's accession discussions have accelerated despite continuing reform challenges.

Ukraine presents a unique case. Its accession process is closely tied to broader European efforts to lock in the country's Western orientation while the war continues. However, Novakov notes that unresolved territorial disputes remain the largest obstacle to membership.

Albania is not seen as particularly exposed to Russian influence, but its candidacy fits into the EU's broader strategy of consolidating stability in the Western Balkans. 

Does enlargement benefit the EU economically?

According to Novakov, the immediate economic case for enlargement is actually limited.

“Admitting these four nations won't benefit the EU economically,” she argues, pointing out that all four remain significantly less developed than existing EU member states. 

Instead, the benefit is strategic.

Their accession would reduce opportunities for external influence, particularly from Russia, and help calm long-running regional tensions. In the Balkans, closer integration has long been viewed as a stabilising force, and Novakov believes successful accession could ease some of the political uncertainty that still characterises parts of the region.

In effect, Brussels appears willing to accept short-term economic costs in exchange for greater geopolitical stability.

Will EU membership rules change to speed up accession?

Despite the recent acceleration, Novakov is sceptical that the EU will fundamentally alter its accession framework.

Several proposals have been floated in recent years, including ideas originating in France and Germany and separate suggestions linked to Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and former Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.

However, Novakov points out that any genuine change to the accession process would require amendments to the Treaty of Lisbon.

Such a change would require unanimous approval from all 27 EU member states. Given the existing divisions inside the bloc over enlargement, she believes this remains unlikely. 

“There is significant opposition within the EU already when it comes to potential expansion,” she says, warning that future political developments in key countries, particularly France, could slow or even halt enlargement efforts. 

In other words, Brussels may be moving faster politically, but the formal accession criteria themselves remain largely unchanged.

How quickly could these countries realistically join?

Among the four candidates, Novakov sees Montenegro as the clear frontrunner.

She believes the country is close to completing its accession requirements and says membership by 2028 remains a realistic objective. Even if that date slips, she expects Montenegro to join within a few years. 

Albania's path is more uncertain.

Novakov notes that the Albanian government hopes to join by 2030, but ongoing corruption scandals and concerns about organised crime continue to generate hesitation inside Brussels. As a result, she expects Albania's accession process to take longer than Montenegro's. 

Ukraine and Moldova face even more complex challenges. While both enjoy strong political support, Ukraine's unresolved territorial issues and Moldova's vulnerability to Russian influence mean neither is likely to enjoy an easy path to membership. 

One of the main concerns surrounding the EU's approach is whether countries that are not moving forward as quickly will feel sidelined.

Novakov believes most understand why they are being left behind.

North Macedonia remains blocked by Bulgaria's demand that Skopje amend its constitution to recognise the Bulgarian minority. Until that issue is resolved, Sofia is expected to continue using its veto.

Serbia faces multiple obstacles, including concerns about the rule of law, corruption, human rights, its refusal to align with EU policy towards Russia and the unresolved dispute with Kosovo.

Kosovo is not even formally recognised by all EU member states, while Bosnia and Herzegovina has yet to meet many of the commitments Brussels requires. 

For that reason, Novakov does not believe these countries genuinely see the advancement of the four candidates as a snub. However, she acknowledges that domestic politicians may use the issue for political purposes, potentially increasing public frustration with the EU and contributing to further alienation. 

What do accession talks bode for Russia?

The geopolitical implications may be the most important consequence of all.

Novakov repeatedly links the accelerated treatment of Ukraine, Moldova and Montenegro to concerns about Russian influence. Montenegro's alignment with EU sanctions, Moldova's vulnerability to election interference, and Ukraine's status as the central battleground in Europe's confrontation with Russia all place Moscow at the centre of the enlargement debate.

Bringing these countries closer to the EU reduces the room for Russian influence in Europe and signals that Brussels intends to consolidate its influence in contested regions.

The downside is that Moscow is likely to view further enlargement as another sign of the EU expanding into what Russia considers strategically important territory, potentially deepening existing tensions.

For Brussels, however, the calculation appears clear: delaying integration may pose a greater risk than accelerating it.

As Novakov's analysis suggests, the EU's current enlargement push is less about economics and more about security, influence and the future political architecture of Europe.

Read more: 

• EU defence ministers push faster rearmament and more support for Ukraine
• EU weighs accession roadmaps for Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Albania
• Europe's Far Right is no longer a shock and that may be the bigger story

Tags

News Politics Moldova Albania Ukraine Montenegro