Ceasefire deal reached: what’s next for Israel and Hamas?

After 15 months of conflict, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire that could halt the war in Gaza. The deal, brokered by the U.S. and Qatar, includes a hostages-for-prisoners exchange and a surge in humanitarian aid, offering a fragile hope for peace.

Israel and Hamas have reportedly agreed on a ceasefire deal that could halt the Gaza war, as announced by the U.S. and Qatari mediators. If finalized, the agreement marks a major breakthrough after 15 months of conflict, which began with Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023.

While details are not yet fully disclosed, the deal involves halting hostilities and an exchange of hostages and prisoners. Hamas, which initially took 251 hostages, still holds 94, though Israel estimates only 60 remain alive. In return, Israel is expected to release around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some held for years.

The ceasefire will roll out in three stages:

Stage 1: A six-week ceasefire includes the release of 33 hostages, primarily women and children, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops will withdraw from Gaza’s populated areas, allowing displaced residents to return. Humanitarian aid will also be ramped up, with hundreds of trucks delivering supplies daily.

Stage 2: Negotiations will aim for a permanent end to the war, releasing the remaining hostages and additional Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops would fully withdraw from Gaza.

Stage 3: Focused on rebuilding Gaza, this phase includes infrastructure reconstruction and the return of any remaining hostages’ bodies.

However, significant uncertainties remain. Deep distrust between Israel and Hamas complicates the agreement. Israel has resisted Hamas’s demands to release certain prisoners, and the fate of some hostages is unknown. The durability of the ceasefire is also uncertain, as previous agreements have collapsed due to skirmishes.

This fragile deal offers hope but leaves critical questions unanswered, including the long-term presence of Israeli troops in buffer zones and whether the ceasefire will lead to lasting peace.

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