NVIDIA can sell again… but will China even buy?

NVIDIA will be allowed to ship its H200 chips to approved customers in China and other countries under conditions designed to protect U.S. national security, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday.

The move follows months of debate over semiconductor controls as the U.S. seeks to manage strategic competition with China while protecting its lead in artificial intelligence.

Political risk analyst Ross Feingold said the policy shift does not guarantee a revival of sales, stressing that China’s internal guidance will determine the outcome. “Even with Washington’s approval, sales will only happen if Beijing signals that Chinese companies can buy these chips,” he told AnewZ, noting that China has urged major firms to prioritise domestic processors regardless of performance gaps.

Feingold added that NVIDIA may now face a new diplomatic challenge after a year spent strengthening ties with the Trump administration. “Huang has built strong ties in Washington, but he now needs Beijing’s cooperation if he wants those sales to truly resume,” he said, suggesting that engagement with Chinese officials will be essential for any commercial breakthrough.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Trump said the Department of Commerce is finalising the export framework and that similar approvals will apply to AMD, Intel and other American chipmakers. On Truth Social, he added that “25% will be paid to the United States of America,” though he did not clarify whether this represents a tax, a fee or a new financial mechanism tied to chip shipments.

NVIDIA’s H200 processors are central to the development of advanced AI systems, making them a sensitive category of U.S. technology exports. China’s accelerated effort to expand its domestic semiconductor base—supported by substantial state investment—has intensified concerns among U.S. officials about maintaining long-term technological advantage.

Trump’s decision is seen as a controlled attempt to reopen limited commercial channels while keeping national security protections in place. Yet China’s response remains the decisive variable. Ross Feingold said months of buy-local pressure have reshaped procurement policies among major Chinese technology firms, and he noted that appetite for U.S. hardware may remain constrained unless Beijing signals a shift.

Industry observers note that Chinese companies now face a strategic choice: prioritise political alignment with domestic-production goals, or seek the performance gains associated with NVIDIA’s top-tier chips. For some firms, the political risk of appearing dependent on U.S. hardware may outweigh technical benefits, at least in the short term.

The move has prompted broader questions about whether this step opens the door to further adjustments in U.S. export policy or whether it will remain a narrowly defined exception. Much will depend on whether Beijing chooses to ease or reinforce its domestic-first approach to semiconductors.

For now, Washington has opened a pathway, but Beijing will decide whether it becomes a functioning market. The coming weeks are expected to bring clearer signals from Chinese regulators and buyers, determining whether high-end U.S. chips re-enter one of their most important markets.

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