Australia warns of China’s opaque military expansion deep into Pacific

Canberra has issued a stark assessment of the changing security landscape in the Pacific, warning that Beijing is projecting force deeper into the region with diminishing transparency, complicating the delicate balance of power in the Southern Hemisphere.

Speaking in Canberra on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Penny Wong outlined the acute challenges Australia faces as it vies for influence in its immediate "neighbourhood"—a vast maritime zone that has rapidly transformed from a benign diplomatic backwater into a theatre of intense geopolitical rivalry.

"China continues to assert its strategic influence, including through economic and security means, and is more frequently projecting its military power further into our region," Wong said.

She said this was happening "without the transparency that the region expects" and that the collective security and prosperity of South Pacific nations depends on mutual cooperation.

This is likely a reference to undisclosed security pacts and policing agreements Beijing has sought with island nations, following the controversial security deal signed with the Solomon Islands in 2022.

"This is how we can ensure that we have choices, should pressure be applied to us. The unity of the Pacific Islands Forum exemplifies regionalism: empowering smaller and medium-sized countries to counter power asymmetries," she said.

Australia was subject to trade restrictions worth A$20 billion (roughly $13 billion) from its largest trading partner China between 2020 and 2023 due to a political dispute, and has previously warned Pacific Island countries about economic coercion as they seek to boost trade with Beijing.

As Australia pushes for closer economic and security integration with neighbouring countries, Wong said the growing interest in the Pacific from external partners was having consequences, and Australia was in a contest for influence every day.

Eleven Pacific Island countries have diplomatic ties with Beijing, with several including Tonga heavily indebted to Chinese state banks. Three South Pacific countries have ties with Taiwan.

The comments reflect growing anxiety among Western allies regarding the People's Liberation Army’s (PLA) naval manoeuvres beyond the "First Island Chain" and into the Pacific heartland.

According to Wong, the collective security and prosperity of South Pacific nations depend on mutual cooperation rather than domination by a single great power.

Economic Statecraft and Coercion

The Foreign Minister’s speech comes against a backdrop of stabilising but wary relations between Canberra and Beijing. Australia was subject to punitive trade restrictions worth A$20 billion (roughly $13 billion) from its largest trading partner between 2020 and 2023.

The sanctions, which targeted barley, wine, and coal, were imposed following a diplomatic dispute over the origins of COVID-19. While most impediments have since been lifted, Australia has used the experience to warn Pacific Island countries about the risks of economic coercion as they seek to boost trade with the world's second-largest economy.

As Australia pushes for closer economic and security integration with neighbouring countries, Wong acknowledged that the era of uncontested Western influence is over. Growing interest in the Pacific from external partners—including the U.S., France, and China—was having consequences, placing Australia in a contest for influence "every day."

"We know that Australia can no longer be the only partner of choice in the Pacific. There's no rewind button," she said.

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