Key elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City are entering their final stretch, with the latest polls showing competitive contests that have attracted national attention.
New Jersey
In the gubernatorial race, a recent AtlasIntel poll conducted between October 25 and 30 shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill narrowly leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 0.9 percentage points, 50.2% to 49.3%, within the survey’s two-point margin of error. The poll surveyed over 1,600 likely voters and indicates a nearly even split across the state.
Former President Barack Obama appeared at a rally for Sherrill on November 1, highlighting the race’s importance for the Democratic Party. Early voting trends suggest slight Democratic momentum, with mail-in ballot returns reportedly outpacing Republican returns compared with the same stage in 2024.
Virginia
Governor Abigail Spanberger appears positioned for reelection, with a recent poll showing her leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 56% to 44%.
The state’s attorney general race remains close, with Democrat Jerra Jones polling at 51% against incumbent Jason Miyares’ 49%. Early voting indicates increased Democratic engagement compared with the 2024 cycle, though officials caution that past elections have seen significant changes on Election Day.
New York City
In the mayoral contest, polling shows incumbent Zohran Mamdani leading former Governor Andrew Cuomo 41% to 34%, with Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24%. The seven-point margin has narrowed since earlier polling, largely due to gains by Cuomo among older, moderate Democrats. Analysis indicates higher turnout among older voters than in the primaries, with increased participation from younger voters as well.
The race has drawn national attention, with former President Donald Trump criticising Mamdani in a recent interview. Mamdani, a self-identified democratic socialist, has received endorsements from New York Governor Kathy Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Former President Barack Obama also spoke with Mamdani by phone, praising his campaign and offering to serve as a “sounding board,” though he did not issue a formal endorsement.
Overall Trends
A recent poll shows 46% of registered voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if the midterms were held today, compared with 44% for the Republican candidate, with 9% undecided or not planning to vote. The poll also found that 59% of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, while 64% say he is expanding presidential power too far.
While early voting data suggest some Democratic momentum, analysts emphasise that high turnout on Election Day could influence the outcome in all three contests.
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