Massive floods in Pakistan have struck both the rural heartland and industrial centres for the first time in decades, causing billions of dollars in damage.

The government had been optimistic about 2026, pencilling in 4.2% growth on the back of a rebound in farming and manufacturing after the economy was stabilised under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund bailout.  

Instead, record monsoon rain since late June, amplified by dam releases from India, have submerged large swathes of Punjab and Sindh, the two most populous and economically vital provinces. 

While waters have yet to recede in many districts, officials and analysts warn the hit could be deeper than in 2022, when a third of the country lay under water, due to dual shocks to agriculture and manufacturing.

In Punjab, Pakistan's rice, cotton and maize engine, 1.8 million acres of farmland have been inundated, according to the provincial disaster management agency. 

"About 50% of rice, and 60% of cotton and maize crops have been damaged," said Khalid Bath, chairman of the Pakistan Farmers Association. 

He estimates at least a tenth of the country's crops are destroyed, with vegetable losses topping 90% in some districts. 

The timing is perilous: Pakistan is about to sow wheat, the crop that provides nearly half of the country's caloric intake.

National reserves remain comfortable after a strong 2024 harvest, according to Crop Monitor, but the sowing window is at risk in fields still slick with silt and mud.

"Food insecurity is coming, not just higher prices," Khan warned.  

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