The United States has named Afghanistan among the countries that it says have “failed demonstrably” to meet international counternarcotics obligations over the past year. President Donald Trump’s announcement, delivered to Congress on Monday, also included Bolivia, Burma, Colombia and Venezuela.
Afghanistan’s de facto authorities have not commented on the decision, but they have repeatedly claimed that drug cultivation has plummeted since their 2022 ban on poppy planting. United Nations data supports those claims, showing a 95% drop in opium cultivation between 2022 and 2023.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported that opium cultivation shrank from 233,000 hectares in 2022 to just 10,800 hectares in 2023. Production of raw opium fell from 6,200 tons to 333 tons over the same period.
Last year, Ghada Waly, executive director of UNODC, said the sharp fall presented “a real opportunity to build long-term results against the illicit opium market” but warned that the loss of income had left millions of rural Afghans vulnerable.
“Over the coming months Afghanistan is in dire need of strong investment in sustainable livelihoods to provide Afghan farmers with opportunities away from opium,” she said.
The collapse of the opium economy has been accompanied by deep economic pain. According to UN estimates, farmers’ revenues from the 2023 harvest were about US$110 million, compared with US$1.36 billion the year before.
The United Nations has warned that more than two-thirds of Afghanistan’s population now needs humanitarian assistance, and the World Food Programme says around 15 million people are facing acute food insecurity.
Trump’s designation could affect the flow of certain types of U.S. assistance, although Washington continues to channel humanitarian and health aid through the United Nations and non-governmental organisations to avoid direct engagement with Taliban institutions.
Analysts note that while cultivation remains far below pre-ban levels, there has been a modest rebound, with UNODC recording a 19% increase in 2024 to 12,800 hectares. Experts caution that without sustained funding for alternative livelihoods, farmers may return to illicit crops.
For now, Kabul has yet to respond directly to Trump’s announcement. Taliban officials have previously insisted that they have achieved what no previous Afghan government managed, pointing to the sharp reduction in poppy cultivation.
The United Nations says the gains are real, but fragile, and will only endure if long-term investment replaces the profits that once came from opium.
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