France faces more turmoil with government on brink ahead of confidence vote

France's fourth prime minister in three years, François Bayrou, faces almost certain defeat in a confidence vote on Monday, tipping the euro zone's second-biggest economy further into political uncertainty.

The government's collapse looks set to deepen France's paralysis at a critical time for Europe, which is seeking unity in the face of Russia's war against Ukraine, an increasingly dominant China and trade tensions with the United States.

The turmoil also threatens France's ability to rein in its debt, with the risk of further credit downgrades looming as bond spreads - a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt - widen.

France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with last year's deficit nearly double the EU's 3% limit of economic output and public debt at 113.9% of GDP.

The confidence vote is slated for Monday afternoon.

Despite a frenzy of talks and media appearances since his decision to throw his hat into the ring on 25 August amid tense debates over a budget bill, Bayrou appeared over the weekend to have failed to secure a majority.

Opposition leaders across the political spectrum made clear they would vote to oust Bayrou.

"The government will fall," said Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leading figure of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, echoing similar comments from others on the left and right.

Should Bayrou fall, the president will likely face the task of finding yet another government chief capable of steering a budget through parliament, less than a year after the ouster of Bayrou's conservative predecessor, Michel Barnier.

Macron has so far ruled out dissolving parliament, as he did last year.

Tilt to the left?

France has been mired in a political crisis since Macron called the 2024 snap election, which resulted in a hung parliament.

His own alliance, already shorn of a majority since 2022, saw its numbers fall further, while the anti-immigration, far-right National Rally emerged as the biggest party. A loose coalition of left-wing parties, now deeply divided, came in as the largest bloc. No camp has a majority.

"This crisis was provoked and fuelled by President Emmanuel Macron and all those who have served him," Marine Le Pen, head of the National Rally's group of lawmakers, said on Sunday. "Today, the sick man of Europe, because of them, is France."

After the fall of a conservative and a centrist as prime minister, most observers expect Macron to next look for a candidate from the ranks of the centre-left Socialists (PS).

"He can't go against the results of the polls a third time," Marine Tondelier, head of the smaller Greens party, told broadcaster BFM on Saturday.

Any such candidate would still need to forge a delicate alliance with the president's liberal bloc, which opposes many of the left's ideas, including raising taxes for the wealthiest to plug the country's financial holes. They would also have to convince the moderate right to tolerate yet another minority government.

Laurent Wauquiez, leading lawmaker for the conservative Les Republicains (LR) party, signalled he would not call for ousting a socialist prime minister.

Party chief and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, however, disagreed.

"There is no way we will accept a socialist prime minister", Retailleau said in a speech on Sunday.

Like many in France, Mohamed, 80, who sells produce on the Aligre market in Paris, doesn't think the politicians will find a way out.

"Come back in 10 days and you'll see nothing will have changed. There won't be a majority, there will be no budget."

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