Tokayev’s China visit: navigating new realities in regional cooperation

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will visit the People’s Republic of China from 30 August to 3 September, following an official invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Akorda presidential administration reports.

The programme includes high-level bilateral talks, participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit and the “SCO Plus” meeting in Tianjin, as well as business meetings with representatives of major Chinese companies. Tokayev is also expected to attend commemorative events marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

The visit takes place against the backdrop of increasing political and economic engagement between Kazakhstan and China. In recent years, both sides have shown a readiness to deepen cooperation across multiple sectors - including trade, logistics, energy and technology. However, this convergence is largely pragmatic: Kazakhstan seeks to diversify its external economic relations, while China is focused on securing stable access to resources and expanding westward transit routes.

According to the latest figures, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and China reached 286.4 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025. A significant portion of Chinese investment is directed toward infrastructure, manufacturing and the extractive industries. Although a number of new agreements are expected to be signed during the visit, no official details have been released at the time of writing.

One of the key focal points is the development of the so-called Middle Corridor, an alternative trade route from China to Europe via Kazakhstan and the South Caucasus, bypassing Russia. In March this year, the first container train successfully completed this route, signalling a mutual interest in reducing dependence on traditional transport corridors. Infrastructure development along the corridor is already underway, including new logistics hubs, rail modernisation projects and expanded capacity at border crossings.

Despite increased economic activity, sensitive issues remain. Kazakhstan continues to navigate a delicate balance among major international actors: including China, Russia and Western powers, while maintaining a position of neutrality, particularly on matters involving geopolitical rivalry. China, for its part, is expanding its influence in Central Asia through both bilateral formats and regional mechanisms such as the “China-Central Asia” initiative, which in some cases sidesteps broader multilateral structures.

Tokayev’s visit also includes a substantial business component. In Beijing, he is scheduled to take part in a meeting of the Kazakhstan–China Business Council, where discussions will likely focus on industrial cooperation, investment and joint ventures. Chinese corporations have shown consistent interest in Kazakhstan’s extractive and energy sectors. The $1.2 billion acquisition of the Raygorodok gold deposit by Zijin Mining stands out as one of the largest Chinese investments in the country’s resource base in recent years.

Alongside these developments, cultural and educational cooperation appears to play a more symbolic role. The designation of 2025 as the Year of Chinese Tourism in Kazakhstan and the expansion of academic exchange programmes are unlikely to significantly alter the broader dynamic but allow Beijing to project soft power while enabling Astana to reinforce its image as an open and cooperative partner.

Given the current global context, Tokayev’s visit to China reflects a considered step within Kazakhstan’s foreign policy strategy, aimed at maintaining stable and diversified relations with key partners. Economic cooperation, security dialogue and logistical integration remain high on the agenda, though any substantive outcomes are expected to evolve incrementally. At this stage, both countries appear focused on maintaining stability and mutual benefit, while deliberately avoiding rigid commitments or politicised rhetoric.

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