La Niña chance rises as global temperatures soar

There is more than a 50% chance of La Niña developing over the next three months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which could potentially temper 2024’s record-breaking global temperatures.

There is more than a 50% chance of La Niña developing in the next three months, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday, but if it does, it is expected to be relatively weak and short-lived.

The La Niña pattern involves the cooling of ocean surface temperatures and could potentially temper a period of high temperatures that is set to make 2024 the warmest year on record. Forecasts indicate a 55% likelihood of a La Niña transition between December 2024 and February 2025, a decrease from the WMO's previous forecast of a 60% chance in September.

“Even if a La Niña event does emerge, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.

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