Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of hitting Earth, as new observations showed that it has been downgraded to "No Hazard" Level on the Torino impact scale, a tool for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects such as asteroids and comets.
NASA has significantly lowered the risk of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 as an impact threat to Earth for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, there is still a very small chance for the asteroid to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, and that probability is currently 1.7%.
"Experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century," - US Space Administraiton stated.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2024. Since then, astronomers have been closely monitoring its trajectory, as initial observations indicated a roughly 1% chance of a collision with Earth on December 22, 2032.
The European Space Agency (ECA) stated that for asteroids larger than 30 metres in size, 2024 YR4 held the record for the highest impact probability reached, and the longest time spent with an impact probability greater than 1%.
Follow-up observations briefly raised the likelihood of an impact, with the probability reaching 3.1%. This led to the asteroid being considered the most dangerous space object tracked to date
"Thanks to new observations, Earth is now at the edge of our shrinking ‘uncertainty window.’ If this trend continues, the risk may soon reach 0%," - ECA has reported.
The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 might impact Earth on 22 December 2032 has dropped from 2.8% to 1.4% to 0.16% in just a couple of days. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an almost 99% chance of safely passing Earth.
NASA estimates that the space rock has a 0.0017% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032
"NASA will continue to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 with observatories funded by its Planetary Defense Coordination Office, and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March to further gain insights about its size for scientific purposes" - US space agency stated.
NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams completed an unexpectedly long 286-day mission on the ISS, returning to Earth aboard a SpaceX capsule after delays caused by technical issues with Boeing’s Starliner.
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NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams completed an unexpectedly long 286-day mission on the ISS, returning to Earth aboard a SpaceX capsule after delays caused by technical issues with Boeing’s Starliner.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday to discuss the progress made by U.S. President Donald Trump in ceasefire talks with Russia, with both leaders emphasising the importance of a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.
Fresh hostilities erupted in the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Wednesday, with reported air strikes causing infrastructure damage and evacuations despite a recently agreed partial ceasefire.
Putin has paused energy facility strikes, but a full ceasefire remains elusive. The move signals ongoing tensions, with discussions about a wider peace deal set to begin, leaving questions about Ukraine’s role in the negotiations.
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