Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of hitting Earth, as new observations showed that it has been downgraded to "No Hazard" Level on the Torino impact scale, a tool for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects such as asteroids and comets.
NASA has significantly lowered the risk of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 as an impact threat to Earth for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, there is still a very small chance for the asteroid to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, and that probability is currently 1.7%.
"Experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century," - US Space Administraiton stated.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2024. Since then, astronomers have been closely monitoring its trajectory, as initial observations indicated a roughly 1% chance of a collision with Earth on December 22, 2032.
The European Space Agency (ECA) stated that for asteroids larger than 30 metres in size, 2024 YR4 held the record for the highest impact probability reached, and the longest time spent with an impact probability greater than 1%.
Follow-up observations briefly raised the likelihood of an impact, with the probability reaching 3.1%. This led to the asteroid being considered the most dangerous space object tracked to date
"Thanks to new observations, Earth is now at the edge of our shrinking ‘uncertainty window.’ If this trend continues, the risk may soon reach 0%," - ECA has reported.
The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 might impact Earth on 22 December 2032 has dropped from 2.8% to 1.4% to 0.16% in just a couple of days. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an almost 99% chance of safely passing Earth.
NASA estimates that the space rock has a 0.0017% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032
"NASA will continue to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 with observatories funded by its Planetary Defense Coordination Office, and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March to further gain insights about its size for scientific purposes" - US space agency stated.
NASA has raised the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, making it the most threatening space rock recorded in modern forecasting. While the risk is still low, experts emphasize the need for continued monitoring.
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