Armenia risks soaring gas bills and falling remittances if Eurasian bloc ties weaken

Armenia could face soaring gas prices, a sharp drop in remittances and tighter restrictions on migrant workers if its membership of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is suspended, according to a new report examining the risks of closer ties with the European Union.

The report, prepared by representatives of Eurasian intergovernmental structures from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, outlines the potential economic fallout if Armenia moves further away from the Moscow-led bloc.

Gas prices could nearly double

Among the most significant risks identified in the report is a sharp rise in the cost of Russian natural gas.

Armenia currently imports Russian gas at a preferential rate of $177.5 per 1,000 cubic metres. If its EAEU membership is suspended, the report estimates that the price could rise to $300, pushing the country's annual gas bill from around $389 million to $657.5 million.

The projections are based on current market assumptions, with the report warning that prices could climb even higher depending on global energy conditions.

Higher gas costs could also drive up production expenses for businesses and household utility bills, adding to inflationary pressures and potentially slowing economic growth.

Remittances could fall by more than half

The report also warns of a steep decline in money sent home by Armenian workers abroad, particularly those employed in Russia.

Remittances from Russia could fall from $3.88 billion in 2025 to $1.8 billion if Armenia loses the preferential arrangements linked to EAEU membership.

Total transfers from EAEU countries are projected to drop from $3.95 billion to around $1.85 billion.

The figures highlight Armenia's reliance on Russia as a source of remittances and a major destination for its migrant workforce.

Armenian workers face tighter employment rules

Armenian nationals working in other EAEU countries could also face new employment restrictions if the country's membership is suspended.

Figures from the Eurasian Economic Commission show that approximately 124,600 of the 126,900 Armenian citizens employed across EAEU countries in 2025 worked in Russia, accounting for more than 98 per cent of the total.

According to the report, a suspension would mean Armenian workers losing their current labour privileges within the bloc and becoming subject to rules governing workers from non-member countries, including potential employment quotas.

Tax arrangements for Armenian workers and products entering EAEU markets could also become less favourable.

Armenia weighs closer EU ties against economic risks

The warnings come as Armenia seeks closer relations with the European Union while maintaining longstanding economic and political links with Russia and other EAEU members.

Supporters of deeper EU integration point to the potential for increased investment, governance reforms and broader trade opportunities. Critics warn that distancing Armenia from the EAEU too quickly could expose the country to significant economic disruption, particularly in energy supplies, employment and remittances.

No decision has been taken to suspend Armenia's EAEU membership, but the report underscores the potential financial consequences of a shift in the country's economic alliances.

The findings could intensify debate in Yerevan over whether the long-term benefits of closer EU integration would outweigh the risks of weakening economic ties with Russia, Armenia's key energy supplier and main destination for migrant workers.

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