Turkish central bank holds rate at 50%, warns on inflation

Türkiye's central bank held interest rates at 50% as expected but cautioned that recent data had lifted inflation uncertainty, in a hawkish signal ahead of an expected easing cycle in coming months.

The bank said in a statement released after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Oct. 17 that the tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed, and inflation expectations converge to the projected forecast range.

Analysts believe that the message could reinforce the view that the bank will wait until around January to ease monetary policy, after a more than year-long effort to slay years of soaring inflation.

The last time the bank raised its main policy rate was in March, when it hiked by 500 basis points to round off an aggressive tightening cycle that started in June last year. Since then, it has kept the one-week repo rate on hold.

In a change of messaging last month, it began setting the stage for a rate cut by dropping a reference to potential further tightening. Yet after monthly inflation was higher than expected at nearly 3% in September, a poll showed analysts expected the bank to wait until December or January to begin its anticipated easing cycle.
 

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