Investors are cautiously returning to the Middle East, betting on economic recovery and political stability following a fragile ceasefire and shifting regional dynamics. However, President Donald Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza has injected new uncertainty.
A historic shake-up in the region is attracting fresh investment. The end of the Israel-Hamas war, political changes in Lebanon and Syria, and a weakened Iran have fueled hopes for economic stabilization.
In Egypt, where economic collapse once loomed, the government successfully executed its first dollar debt sale in four years. Investors have also begun buying Israeli bonds again, while Lebanon’s debt markets are seeing renewed interest as Beirut moves toward financial restructuring.
Trump’s proposal to “clean out” Gaza and develop a Middle East "Riviera" was widely condemned. Egypt has called an emergency Arab summit on February 27 to address the implications.
Bond investors initially welcomed the ceasefire but reacted negatively to Trump’s plan. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, reduced exposure to Egyptian bonds, fearing U.S. pressure on Cairo to accept Palestinian refugees.
Credit rating agency S&P Global has signaled that Israel's downgrade warning could be lifted if stability holds. Meanwhile, Michael Fertik, a U.S. venture capitalist, cited reduced geopolitical risk in his decision to expand operations in Israel’s AI sector.
However, risks remain. Yemen’s Houthi attacks have cost Egypt’s Suez Canal $7 billion in lost revenue, forcing shipping routes around Africa. Investors warn that any escalation could reverse economic gains.
Rebuilding efforts in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon present opportunities for Turkey’s construction firms, with Trump’s envoy estimating a 10-15 year timeline for Gaza’s reconstruction. The World Bank estimates Lebanon’s war damage at $8.5 billion—about 35% of its GDP.
Lebanon’s defaulted bonds have more than doubled in price since Hezbollah’s influence weakened. New President Joseph Aoun is set to visit Saudi Arabia, a potential backer of Beirut’s restructuring, though $45 billion in debt still needs renegotiation.
The Middle East is entering a crucial economic phase, with peace prospects driving investment interest. Yet, uncertainty over Gaza, U.S. policy shifts, and regional tensions continue to shape the financial landscape.
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