Kazakhstan has resumed oil exports via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. KazMunayGas said through its press service that a shipment of 8,800 tonnes of Kashagan oil was dispatched from the port of Aktau on the 13 September.

The next shipment along this route is scheduled for the 20 September, a week after the initial shipment was made. The use of the BTC pipeline has been temporarily on hold since August earlier in the year.

In the first eight months of 2025, the volume of Kazakh oil transported via the BTC route amounted to 0.9 million tonnes. Kazakhstan plans to significantly increase volumes – from 1.5 million to 20 million tonnes per year. This is linked to the need to diversify export routes and reduce risks associated with transit through a limited number of channels.

Currently, around 70% of the country’s total oil output is exported. Of these exports, 98% are transported via two main routes: the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and the Uzen–Atyrau–Samara pipeline. Both routes however, pass through Russian territory, creating a critical dependence on a single transit corridor.

Such concentration could pose potential risks in the event of geopolitical instability or restrictions imposed by transit countries.

For example, in 2022, operations at CPC were suspended multiple times, forcing Kazakhstan to temporarily reduce production at major fields to avoid storage overcapacity. These incidents highlight the vulnerability of the existing export framework and the necessity to seek alternatives.The BTC pipeline is considered one such alternative. Its main advantage is that it completely bypasses Russia.

The pipeline has a capacity of up to 60 million tonnes per year but is currently utilised at less than half, which presents opportunities for Kazakhstan to increase its shipments.

If the current reliance on Russian transit continues, potential disruptions could seriously affect Kazakhstan’s economy. Today, about half of the country’s budget revenue comes from oil and gas, with 60% of export earnings linked to oil sales. In this context, using alternative routes like BTC helps to mitigate strategic risks.

However, the BTC route is associated with certain economic limitations. Rashid Zhaksylykov, Chairman of the Presidium of the KazService Union of Oilfield Service Companies, revealed that shipments via BTC would become economically unviable if oil prices fall below $40 per barrel. However, at $70–80 per barrel, the route remains profitable and can yield Kazakhstan a positive margin despite higher transportation costs.

Zhaksylykov also noted that external economic and geopolitical factors do not eliminate the need to increase production volumes. In 2025, Kazakhstan reached a production level of 90 million tonnes per year, and plans to raise this figure to 137 million tonnes in the future. In such circumstances, developing higher-cost routes may be justified if they ensure stable exports and protect budget revenues from potential shocks.

Despite economic and logistical challenges, the BTC pipeline route is becoming an important part of Kazakhstan’s energy security strategy. Its development offers Kazakhstan the opportunity to strengthen export independence and adapt to changing conditions in the global market.

Copied