Reopening Syria Could Change the Status Quo in the Middle East

Is Syria turning to the West or striving to preserve geopolitical balance?

In December 2024, the Assad regime, led by Hafez al-Assad and later Bashar al-Assad for over four decades, collapsed, paving the way for Ahmed al-Sharaa. Despite the challenges that he had to overcome, six months later, it is evident that al-Sharaa is not just an interim figure. He is a politician who can find common ground with regional stakeholders, revive Syria’s economy under global sanctions, and restore the country.

A key turning point came following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and al-Sharaa, after which the U.S. lifted a significant portion of the sanctions on Syria. Since early 2025, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, along with other EU countries, have provided humanitarian aid and economic support to Damascus. While this has not fully rebuilt isolated Syria, it has contributed to a degree of stability. This article analyzes Syria’s current influence and future under al-Sharaa’s leadership.

In international politics, the Middle East stands out due to its geopolitical advantages and natural resources, leading to complex decision-making processes. Historically, it has been the intersection of U.S., Iranian, Russian, and EU interests. Syria, once stable for 30 years, became a hotspot of geopolitical conflict after the Arab Spring of 2011 and the Assad regime’s violent suppression of grievances, which led to civil war, turning Syria into a proxy battleground for Russia and Iran. Following Russia's war in Ukraine in 2022, Russian influence in Syria waned, and the Assad regime collapsed amid escalating conflict. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in late 2024 marked a turning point for Syria, as the country began to chart a new international course after years of tensions with the West.

Syria’s Strategic Reorientation: Between Western Engagement and Russian Legacy

Moscow views Syria’s shifting foreign policy with great concern, given Russia's long-standing military and diplomatic support for the Assad regime. Syria’s rapprochement with the West threatens to erode the Kremlin’s long-term influence in the region, presenting a critical test for Russia’s global foreign policy reputation.

It is also clear that the West’s engagement extends beyond the United States. The United Kingdom, France, and Italy have begun to revive relations with Syria, easing sanctions and establishing direct diplomatic ties with the al-Sharaa government. This shift provides a valuable opportunity for Syria’s new leadership to gain economic support and escape international isolation. The new government is actively working to leverage this diplomatic momentum by forming partnerships with Gulf countries and Western states to rebuild the domestic economy—suggesting Syria’s strong interest in fostering ties with the West.

However, Russia is adapting to this new reality and is not remaining passive. Following Assad’s fall, Moscow began delivering humanitarian aid, grain, and fuel to Damascus. It is also working to establish ties with the new leadership and has expressed support for Syria’s territorial integrity, reflecting Russia’s pragmatic strategy aimed at preserving Russian influence.

Russia continues to maintain its military bases in Syria and has expressed willingness to participate in rebuilding infrastructure. In doing so, it seeks to preserve and strengthen its influence. Moreover, since Western sanctions have not been fully lifted, many investors remain cautious about entering the Syrian market.

Yet, the Syrian leadership is not yet ready to rely entirely on the West. Given the perceived unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy and the uncertainty surrounding his successor’s stance, it is understandable that Damascus is wary of becoming too dependent on the U.S. This could hinder Syria from fully distancing itself from Russia.

However, the prospect of Syria’s currency being printed not in Russia, but in Germany or the UAE, serves as an example of the complex nature of Syria’s geopolitical strategy.

Considering these developments, it can be said that Syria is trying to maintain geopolitical balance. On one hand, it is actively forging new relations with the West, while on the other, it is reluctant to sever its longstanding ties with Russia, as Moscow remains resilient in the face of geopolitical competition. This balanced foreign policy may lay the groundwork for a new regional architecture in the Middle East.

Syria: Post-War Energy Competition and a New Geopolitical Balance

Although active fighting in Syria has subsided, the struggle over energy resources has now risen to a new geopolitical level. Syria has emerged as a key arena for competition over oil and gas, with its eastern oil infrastructure and offshore potential gas fields positioning the country as a future energy hub. These resource-rich areas are not only economically valuable but also strategically important for regional influence, making energy the cornerstone of Syria’s current geopolitical significance.

The gas pipeline project backed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia intersects in Syria with a rival initiative led by Iran. This makes Syria a critical node in regional energy transit routes, with Aleppo standing out as a pivotal junction. Consequently, the fate of these gas projects depends heavily on both Syria's internal stability and its evolving foreign relations.

Although Russia’s military involvement in Syria has often been framed as a fight against terrorism, it is underpinned by energy geopolitics. By targeting oil facilities controlled by jihadist groups, Russia aimed to bring energy infrastructure under Moscow’s control, reinforcing its long-term influence in the Middle East.

During the ISIS era, Syria’s oil and gas infrastructure deteriorated significantly due to a lack of professional maintenance and reliance on unsafe, informal refining methods. Rebuilding this sector in the postwar period has become a costly and long-term challenge. However, Syria’s untapped energy potential could also spark new tensions, possibly escalating into “energy jihad”-style conflicts. Thus, resources are not only drivers of development but could also serve as potential sources of instability.

Furthermore, relations between Syria and Israel have recently begun to develop in unexpected ways. Once bitter enemies, the two now appear to be exploring a partnership based on a shared geopolitical interest in countering Iran. This signals a significant shift in the complex alliance system of the Middle East.

Today’s Syria is no longer merely a post-war state; it is emerging as a center of energy, geopolitics, and regional realignment. Since the fall of the Assad rule, Syria has sought to restore ties with the West and escape international isolation—while balancing its long-standing ties with Russia. The revival of its energy infrastructure and the forging of new alliances—including with Israel—could dramatically reshape the regional architecture. Syria’s future will hinge on its ability to navigate this complex web of multi-vector diplomacy and competition over resources.

Nurbolat Nyshanbayev is an Assistant Professor, PhD at the Higher School of International Relations and Diplomacy,  Turan University, specializing in international security, diplomacy, and the geopolitics of the Middle East and Greater Eurasia.

 Almaty, Kazakhstan

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