Trump’s Tomahawk Diplomacy: Will the US Push Putin Toward Concession or Escalation?

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While Ukraine waits for US-made Tomahawk missiles, Washington – at least for now – seems to be putting more effort into diplomacy. In an attempt to urge Moscow and Kyiv to reach if not a peace agreement, then at least a ceasefire, US President Donald Trump was reportedly hoping to hold another summit with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. But would their meeting – whenever and wherever it takes place – truly lead to an end of hostilities in the Eastern European country?

When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin, sounding very self-confident, openly threatened Western nations if they decided to interfere in any way.

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history,” Putin warned Western leaders.

More than three and a half years later, his rhetoric has become noticeably more defensive. Instead of issuing harsh threats, Putin is now indirectly admitting that Moscow – unable to achieve any of its goals in Ukraine – never took any real action to prevent the West from supplying Kyiv with weapons.

Asked how the Kremlin would respond to a potential US delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, Putin said on October 10 that “Russia's response will be to strengthen its air defense system.” His statement perfectly illustrates Moscow’s fiasco in Ukraine – from the failed claim of “capturing Kyiv in three days” to now focusing on strengthening air defense capabilities to protect Russia from Ukrainian attacks.

More importantly, to prevent – or at least delay – another round of humiliation that would undoubtedly follow Ukrainian strikes with Tomahawk missiles, Putin, according to his aide Yuri Ushakov, initiated a phone call with Trump. The Kremlin now sees the United States – which it often described as Russia’s major geopolitical adversary – as the last resort that can save Moscow from suffering another debacle.

Although some Western political circles repeatedly portray Trump as “Putin’s puppet,” in reality it is the American leader who holds significant leverage over the Russian president. The Kremlin’s decision to launch a “war of attrition” – in which Russia is effectively wearing itself down – plays perfectly into the hands of the United States, as it weakens the Russian economy and causes its allies in the post-Soviet space to turn their backs on Moscow.

Therefore, it is no surprise that the US is in no rush to supply weapons to Ukraine, choosing instead to do so in a measured and limited manner. Following Trump’s phone call with Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to Washington to meet with his American counterpart, hoping to return home with a promise of receiving Tomahawk missiles.

Trump, according to Zelenskyy, “did not say no” to his request for long-range weapons, but he “did not say yes either.” Although such a position is unlikely to satisfy the Ukrainian leader, the fact that, prior to his summit with Trump, he met with senior executives of leading American defense giants such as Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, suggests that Kyiv will likely continue receiving American military aid.

For Trump, “the Tomahawk threat” may have been a means of pressuring Putin to gain certain concessions, although that does not mean the United States will not supply a limited number of long-range missiles to Ukraine in the foreseeable future. But for the time being, Washington is expected to focus on diplomacy. A summit between Putin and Trump in Budapest could have been an ideal opportunity for US President to, once again, portray himself as a “peacemaker.” However, for now the event has been postponed, as the Kremlin reportedly refuses to give up on its maximalist demands.

For Putin, a meeting with Trump in the Hungarian capital would carry certain security risks. The main question is: how would he get to Hungary, given that neighboring EU and NATO members could close their airspace to the Russian leader? But even if they grant him overflight permission, they could, hypothetically, force Putin to land – whether in Poland, Bulgaria, or Romania – arrest him, and send him to The Hague to face a war crimes trial. Still, such an outcome does not seem very probable, as it would be equivalent to a declaration of war on the Russian Federation.

On the other hand, if Putin were to land safely in Budapest – regardless of the route his plane takes – it would represent a serious weakness for Europe, as it would have effectively bowed to US pressure to allow the Russian leader’s visit. It would not be the first time for European nations to make such “goodwill gestures,” though.

In 2023, Bulgaria gave permission to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's plane to cross its airspace en route to North Macedonia where he attended a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the OSCE. Also, in July this year, Valentina Matviyenko, Chair of Russia’s Federation Council, freely visited Switzerland to take part in key international parliamentary conferences. Thus, Putin’s potential visit to Hungary, though risky, should not come as too much of a surprise.

What matters more is the outcome of the summit in Budapest, or wherever it may take place. Under the current circumstances, with Russia having failed to achieve any of its strategic goals in Ukraine, Putin is unlikely to easily accept Trump’s peace proposal. For Kyiv, ending the war while 20% of its territory remains under Russian control, would represent a defeat. Therefore, Trump will face a difficult task in ending a conflict in which none of the parties involved has yet exhausted all of their military capabilities.

Fully aware of this, he is playing his trump cards against Putin – threatening to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, pressuring Hungary, India, and China to stop purchasing Russian oil – likely aiming to force the Russian leader to make concessions and at least freeze the conflict. But even if he succeeds, it is unlikely that Ukraine, firmly backed by European powers, will agree to end the war at any cost.

Thus, if Trump’s diplomatic efforts fail to deliver concrete results, a new round of escalation will be inevitable. If that happens, Washington’s green light for Ukraine to launch a military offensive – along with the supply of Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv – will almost certainly be on the table.

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