Economic growth and political debate shape Côte d'Ivoire’s upcoming election

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Côte d'Ivoire has maintained its position as a major political and economic force in West Africa. The region has been experiencing a number of political challenges with several countries either under the military rule grappling with uncertainty.

Moreover, political populism in the region continues to hinder political development and economic growth There are four countries – Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali and Guinea- currently under the military rule in West Africa. This has raised concerns not only in the region but in other parts of Africa. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been suspended from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). They have since formed Alliance of Sahel States which they claim will eventually replace ECOWAS. This move has raised tensions and concerns of political polarization, economic stagnation, and a potential surge in regional instability.

Côte d'Ivoire will be holding elections on 25 October 2025. The incumbent, President Alassane Ouattara, has confirmed his candidacy for re-election. Ouattara remains very popular in the country, with polls suggesting he is well-positioned to secure another term. Reuters has reported that “Ouattara is in a very strong position to win the elections”. Under the presidency of Ouattara, Côte d'Ivoire has recorded impressive economic growth for four successive years. This year, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow from 6% to 6.3%, continuing an upward trend.

Ouattara assumed office after defeating former President Laurent Gbagbo in 2010 presidential elections. Gbagbo’s refusal to accept defeat plunged the country into political violence, leading to widespread destruction of property and significant civilian casualties. The United Nations and human rights organizations estimate that more than 3,000 people were killed and over one million displaced during the post-election crisis. In 2011 Gbagbo was ultimately forced to relinquish power. He was subsequently arrested and charged with crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. After lengthy court proceedings, Gbagbo was acquitted and returned to the country on 17 June 2021. During his trial in The Hague, Gbagbo was convicted in absentia in 2018 of embezzling public funds of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). His attempts to contest elections in 2020 and in 2025 failed due to his conviction, as the law in Côte d'Ivoire prohibits anyone with a criminal record from running for president.  

Despite the rise of political populism in the region, Côte d'Ivoire is in a rather different position from most neighboring countries. First, the country has sustained economic growth for multiple consecutive years, making it one of the fastest-growing economies not only in the region but in the whole of Africa. Between 2012 and 2019 the economy of Côte d'Ivoire had an economic growth of between 7%-8%. The country has also managed to streamline its cocoa exports which remains the mainstay of its economy. Côte d'Ivoire is one of the world’s largest cocoa producers; 40% of cocoa global supply comes from the country. Subsequently large numbers of economic migrants from neighboring countries, especially Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been flocking into Côte d'Ivoire seeking opportunities. Large amounts of financial remittances from Côte d'Ivoire flow into the region particularly to Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. This is significant, as it indicates the important role Côte d'Ivoire plays in the regional economy.  

Furthermore, with political turmoil and changes in most countries in the region Côte d'Ivoire has emerged as a key conduit for businesses and cross-border trade. Political stability, fiscal discipline and good governance have made Côte d'Ivoire an investment magnet. These achievements continue to contribute to President Ouattara’s popularity.  Since taking office in 2011, he has transformed large parts of the Ivorian economy, with large scale infrastructural development including investments in mining, energy, agriculture and other sectors.

Countries in the region should draw on the experience of Ouattara as they pursue reforms in their own countries. Ouattara’s access to foreign direct investments, his credibility within the global markets - both in Africa and abroad - could be leveraged by countries in the region to advance their economic development. Ouattara could play significant political and economic roles in this regard. His role as a trusted statesman in the region is key in rebuilding trust and confidence in regional economies and governments.

However, as Côte d'Ivoire heads towards elections a number of hurdles have emerged. 

First, some Ivorians have taken to the streets to protest the disqualification of prominent figures - particularly former President Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam - from contesting elections. The Ivorian constitution does not allow individuals with a criminal record or dual citizenship to run for president. Gbagbo was disqualified due to his criminal conviction, while Thiam, a former CEO of Credit Suisse, was barred from the race due to his dual citizenship. 

Second, some Ivorians have accused President Ouattara of violating the constitution by seeking a fourth term in office. The Ivorian constitution was amended in 2016, introducing a two-term limit for the presidency. The amendments instituted and sponsored during the second term of Ouattara aimed to prevent a single individual from holding the presidency indefinitely.

However, the effective date of the amended constitution emerged as a key point of contention. The constitution is silent on whether the two-term limit should be applied retroactively. Ouattara argues that the constitution only became effective after its enactment in 2016, effectively resetting the term count.

Despite the constitutional debate, the Constitutional Council approved Ouattara’s bids to run for the third term in 2020 and subsequently for the fourth term in 2025. Both terms are regarded as the first and second terms respectively according to the amended constitution of 2016.  

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