A major study warns that antibiotic-resistant superbugs could kill millions each year while shrinking the global economy by almost $2 trillion annually by 2050, a crisis driven in part by international aid cuts that undermine resistance efforts.

A U.K. government-funded report by the Center for Global Development shows that if antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is not aggressively tackled, it could slash global GDP by an estimated $1.7 trillion each year over the next 25 years, and nearly $2 trillion at peak impact.

The study highlights the potential economic fallout for major economies: China could lose $722 billion annually, the United States $296 billion, the European Union $187 billion, Japan $65.7 billion and the United Kingdom $58.6 billion by 2050. In addition, AMR-related health costs could rise by $176 billion globally, including an increase from $900 million to $3.7 billion in the U.K. and from $15.5 billion to $57 billion in the U.S.

The human toll also looks grim. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts a 60% jump in AMR-related deaths by 2050, with 1.34 million deaths annually in the U.S. and 184,000 in the U.K. Resistant infections increase hospital admissions, lengthen stays, require more expensive treatments, and result in roughly double the treatment cost compared to non-resistant infections.

The report links this looming crisis to recent cuts in Official Development Assistance. The U.S. has reduced aid spending by around 80%, the U.K. has cut its aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income, and several E.U. countries have made similar reductions. This includes the U.K.’s axing of the Fleming Fund, which supports AMR surveillance in low- and middle-income countries.

Lead author Anthony McDonnell warned that without sustained funding for AMR programs, resistance rates could rise in line with the most pessimistic scenario. He said this would endanger global public health and economic stability, including in G7 countries.

However, there is potential for a positive outcome. The study estimates that if countries increase investment in AMR programs, including support for the development of new antibiotics and quality treatment access, the U.S. economy could grow by $156 billion annually by 2050 and the U.K. by $12 billion.

Dr. Mohsen Naghavi of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said, "Today the threat of AMR is increasing, and without immediate action from all stakeholders the medicines we have access to now could stop working, potentially causing a simple infection to become deadly."

He emphasized that governments must prioritize the development of new drugs, improve public understanding that antibiotics do not treat viruses, and protect AMR programs from aid reductions.

A U.K. government spokesperson said the country’s 10-year health plan recognizes AMR as a major threat. It includes commitments to tackle its spread through new vaccines, antibiotic reduction in agriculture, and global cooperation.

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