The IMF has lowered global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing Trump-era tariffs and rising uncertainty. Global growth is expected at 2.8% this year, while U.S. growth may slow to 1.8%, with heightened recession and inflation risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing the impact of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump and the uncertainty they have created. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth at 2.8% for this year, down from its January forecast of 3.3%. For 2026, growth is expected to reach just 3%, also below previous estimates.
U.S. economic growth is now forecast at 1.8% for 2025, a significant drop from the earlier projection of 2.7%, and a full point below last year’s expansion rate. While the IMF does not anticipate a recession in the U.S., it has raised the likelihood of one occurring this year from 25% to 37%. JPMorgan analysts estimate an even higher risk, at 60%.
The IMF noted that the global economy is entering a new phase, with Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas describing it as a "reset" of the system that has governed the global economy for the past 80 years. The fund’s forecasts were finalized on April 4, following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping 10% tariffs on nearly 60 countries. Although the duties were paused for 90 days starting April 9, the IMF said the uncertainty still weighs heavily on global markets.
The U.S. economy may face a "supply shock" similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing inflation to around 3% by year-end. China’s growth is also expected to slow to 4% this year and next, partly due to falling demand from the U.S.
The European Union is forecast to see modest slowdowns, with eurozone growth revised to 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year—down 0.2% from earlier predictions. Japan’s growth has also been adjusted downward to 0.6% for both years. The IMF says that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy could continue to discourage business investment and global economic expansion.
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