The IMF has lowered global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing Trump-era tariffs and rising uncertainty. Global growth is expected at 2.8% this year, while U.S. growth may slow to 1.8%, with heightened recession and inflation risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing the impact of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump and the uncertainty they have created. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth at 2.8% for this year, down from its January forecast of 3.3%. For 2026, growth is expected to reach just 3%, also below previous estimates.
U.S. economic growth is now forecast at 1.8% for 2025, a significant drop from the earlier projection of 2.7%, and a full point below last year’s expansion rate. While the IMF does not anticipate a recession in the U.S., it has raised the likelihood of one occurring this year from 25% to 37%. JPMorgan analysts estimate an even higher risk, at 60%.
The IMF noted that the global economy is entering a new phase, with Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas describing it as a "reset" of the system that has governed the global economy for the past 80 years. The fund’s forecasts were finalized on April 4, following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping 10% tariffs on nearly 60 countries. Although the duties were paused for 90 days starting April 9, the IMF said the uncertainty still weighs heavily on global markets.
The U.S. economy may face a "supply shock" similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing inflation to around 3% by year-end. China’s growth is also expected to slow to 4% this year and next, partly due to falling demand from the U.S.
The European Union is forecast to see modest slowdowns, with eurozone growth revised to 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year—down 0.2% from earlier predictions. Japan’s growth has also been adjusted downward to 0.6% for both years. The IMF says that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy could continue to discourage business investment and global economic expansion.
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Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held talks on Thursday to prepare a new programme providing expanded financing for 2026–2029, aimed at supporting the country’s economy and reconstruction efforts amid ongoing Russian attacks.
The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) executive board approved Pakistan’s latest loan review on Monday, unlocking a critical $1.2 billion in financial support, ensuring that the country’s ongoing IMF program remains on track.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is reviewing Sri Lanka’s request for approximately $200 million in emergency financing after Cyclone Ditwah caused widespread destruction across the island nation.
The European Commission has proposed a $105B support package for Ukraine for 2026–2027, combining joint European Union borrowing with proceeds from frozen Russian assets held in the bloc.
The United States and Azerbaijan signed a strategic partnership in Baku on Tuesday (10 February) encompassing economic and security cooperation as Washington seeks to expand its influence in a region where Russia was once the main power broker.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis arrived in Ankara on Wednesday, where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held an official welcoming ceremony at the Presidential Palace, marking the start of high-level talks between the two NATO allies.
Europe heads into the Munich Security Conference, 13 February, amid deepening unease over U.S. policy, as President Donald Trump’s hard-line stance on defence, trade and territory fuels doubts about Washington’s long-term commitment to transatlantic security.
The European Union is preparing a further expansion of its sanctions against Russia, with Central Asia emerging for the first time as a distinct point of focus.
A senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said on Tuesday that negotiations with the United States must remain focused on the nuclear issue and be grounded in realism, as Washington and Tehran prepare to resume talks mediated by Oman.
Türkiye’s national energy company, TPAO, has struck a new cooperation deal with U.S. energy giant Chevron, signing a memorandum of understanding to explore joint oil and gas exploration and production opportunities, the Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Ministry announced on Thursday.
Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried about artificial intelligence (AI) creating more competition for software makers, keeping them on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.
U.S. stock markets finished mixed on Wednesday (28 January) as investors reacted calmly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, a decision that had been widely expected and largely priced in.
The S&P 500 edged to a record closing high on Tuesday, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains, as strong advances in technology stocks offset a sharp selloff in healthcare shares and a mixed batch of corporate earnings.
Chevron is in talks with Iraq’s oil ministry over potential changes to the commercial framework governing the West Qurna 2 oilfield, one of the world’s largest producing assets, after Baghdad nationalised the field earlier this month following U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia’s Lukoil.
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