The IMF has lowered global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing Trump-era tariffs and rising uncertainty. Global growth is expected at 2.8% this year, while U.S. growth may slow to 1.8%, with heightened recession and inflation risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing the impact of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump and the uncertainty they have created. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth at 2.8% for this year, down from its January forecast of 3.3%. For 2026, growth is expected to reach just 3%, also below previous estimates.
U.S. economic growth is now forecast at 1.8% for 2025, a significant drop from the earlier projection of 2.7%, and a full point below last year’s expansion rate. While the IMF does not anticipate a recession in the U.S., it has raised the likelihood of one occurring this year from 25% to 37%. JPMorgan analysts estimate an even higher risk, at 60%.
The IMF noted that the global economy is entering a new phase, with Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas describing it as a "reset" of the system that has governed the global economy for the past 80 years. The fund’s forecasts were finalized on April 4, following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping 10% tariffs on nearly 60 countries. Although the duties were paused for 90 days starting April 9, the IMF said the uncertainty still weighs heavily on global markets.
The U.S. economy may face a "supply shock" similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing inflation to around 3% by year-end. China’s growth is also expected to slow to 4% this year and next, partly due to falling demand from the U.S.
The European Union is forecast to see modest slowdowns, with eurozone growth revised to 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year—down 0.2% from earlier predictions. Japan’s growth has also been adjusted downward to 0.6% for both years. The IMF says that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy could continue to discourage business investment and global economic expansion.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank held their Spring Meetings in Washington from 13 to 18 April. Finance ministers flew in, communiqués were drafted, and the usual parade of panels and press conferences ran their course.
The global financial blockade on Caracas has ended, with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bankannouncing they have resumed formal dealings with Venezuela.
Georgia is considering launching a development bank to boost key sectors of its economy, but the proposal has sparked debate over risks, transparency and the potential for costly mistakes.
Police officers were pelted with missiles during violent clashes at a protest near the Southampton, UK, home of convicted murderer Vickrum Digwa, as anger continued to grow over the handling of the fatal stabbing of 18-year-old Henry Nowak.
Competing narratives continue to shape perceptions of the war in Ukraine, with Russian leadership suggesting a possible end phase while Ukrainian officials warn of renewed large-scale attacks and ongoing escalation risks.
Severe Tropical Storm Jangmi brought heavy rain, power cuts and transport disruption across Japan on Wednesday (3 June) as it tracked towards the greater Tokyo region.
An Iranian drone and missile attack struck Kuwait International Airport early Wednesday, injuring several people, damaging Terminal 1 and forcing flight diversions, Kuwaiti authorities said.
Global weather forecasters predict a strong El Niño will develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hotter, drier conditions to much of Asia while increasing rainfall in parts of North and South America.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has begun its latest round of negotiations on creating the first binding global standards for platform-based work, covering services such as ride-hailing, food delivery and other app-based work.
European companies are continuing to deepen their presence in China, with nearly seven in ten firms maintaining or expanding their supply chains despite global efforts to diversify, according to a new survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce.
BP has removed its chair, Albert Manifold, with immediate effect, citing concerns over governance and conduct. The company said its board had unanimously decided that Manifold should no longer serve as chair or director.
The dual-class share structure outlined in SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) filing, which gives chief executive Elon Musk outsized control, has reignited one of Wall Street’s longest-running debates over corporate governance.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday as policymakers consider higher interest rates to tackle inflation linked to the Trump administration’s Iran policy.
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