The IMF has lowered global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing Trump-era tariffs and rising uncertainty. Global growth is expected at 2.8% this year, while U.S. growth may slow to 1.8%, with heightened recession and inflation risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing the impact of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump and the uncertainty they have created. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth at 2.8% for this year, down from its January forecast of 3.3%. For 2026, growth is expected to reach just 3%, also below previous estimates.
U.S. economic growth is now forecast at 1.8% for 2025, a significant drop from the earlier projection of 2.7%, and a full point below last year’s expansion rate. While the IMF does not anticipate a recession in the U.S., it has raised the likelihood of one occurring this year from 25% to 37%. JPMorgan analysts estimate an even higher risk, at 60%.
The IMF noted that the global economy is entering a new phase, with Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas describing it as a "reset" of the system that has governed the global economy for the past 80 years. The fund’s forecasts were finalized on April 4, following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping 10% tariffs on nearly 60 countries. Although the duties were paused for 90 days starting April 9, the IMF said the uncertainty still weighs heavily on global markets.
The U.S. economy may face a "supply shock" similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing inflation to around 3% by year-end. China’s growth is also expected to slow to 4% this year and next, partly due to falling demand from the U.S.
The European Union is forecast to see modest slowdowns, with eurozone growth revised to 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year—down 0.2% from earlier predictions. Japan’s growth has also been adjusted downward to 0.6% for both years. The IMF says that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy could continue to discourage business investment and global economic expansion.
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The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) executive board approved Pakistan’s latest loan review on Monday, unlocking a critical $1.2 billion in financial support, ensuring that the country’s ongoing IMF program remains on track.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is reviewing Sri Lanka’s request for approximately $200 million in emergency financing after Cyclone Ditwah caused widespread destruction across the island nation.
The European Commission has proposed a $105B support package for Ukraine for 2026–2027, combining joint European Union borrowing with proceeds from frozen Russian assets held in the bloc.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine to provide $8.2 billion over four years under a renewed Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme.
Real Madrid have parted ways with coach Xabi Alonso, appointing former defender Álvaro Arbeloa as his replacement.
Israel has sharply escalated its warnings to Lebanon amid rising regional tensions linked to Iran, according to a report by the Lebanese newspaper Nida Al Watan.
Iranian authorities have taken steps to disrupt access to Starlink satellite internet, according to users and digital-rights groups, in what appears to be the latest effort to tighten control over people’s access to the internet inside the country.
The U.S. has issued an urgent security notice calling all American citizens to leave Iran immediately, citing escalating protests, growing violence and widespread communication shutdowns across the country.
The United Nations’ top court at The Hague has begun hearings on whether Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya ethnic minority. Gambia told judges on Monday that Myanmar targeted minority Muslim Rohingya for destruction and made their lives a nightmare in a landmark case.
U.S. oil major Chevron and private equity firm Quantum Capital Group are reportedly preparing a joint bid to acquire Lukoil’s international assets, as the sanctioned Russian energy company seeks to divest its overseas operations.
The U.S. dollar's share of global reserves fell to nearly 40% at the end of 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which says it's 10% lower than at the start of 2024. However, gold has risen and overtaken the dollar to be above 50% in global reserves according to the IMF data.
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against major peers on Tuesday, while the euro fell following slower-than-expected inflation in Europe. Market movements were relatively subdued as investors focused on upcoming U.S. economic data.
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, boosted by optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) and a strong rally in Moderna shares, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching a record high.
India’s largest oil refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), has taken a significant step towards diversifying its crude oil supply by purchasing Colombian crude, from state oil company Ecopetrol, for the first time.
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