The IMF has lowered global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing Trump-era tariffs and rising uncertainty. Global growth is expected at 2.8% this year, while U.S. growth may slow to 1.8%, with heightened recession and inflation risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing the impact of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump and the uncertainty they have created. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth at 2.8% for this year, down from its January forecast of 3.3%. For 2026, growth is expected to reach just 3%, also below previous estimates.
U.S. economic growth is now forecast at 1.8% for 2025, a significant drop from the earlier projection of 2.7%, and a full point below last year’s expansion rate. While the IMF does not anticipate a recession in the U.S., it has raised the likelihood of one occurring this year from 25% to 37%. JPMorgan analysts estimate an even higher risk, at 60%.
The IMF noted that the global economy is entering a new phase, with Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas describing it as a "reset" of the system that has governed the global economy for the past 80 years. The fund’s forecasts were finalized on April 4, following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping 10% tariffs on nearly 60 countries. Although the duties were paused for 90 days starting April 9, the IMF said the uncertainty still weighs heavily on global markets.
The U.S. economy may face a "supply shock" similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing inflation to around 3% by year-end. China’s growth is also expected to slow to 4% this year and next, partly due to falling demand from the U.S.
The European Union is forecast to see modest slowdowns, with eurozone growth revised to 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year—down 0.2% from earlier predictions. Japan’s growth has also been adjusted downward to 0.6% for both years. The IMF says that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy could continue to discourage business investment and global economic expansion.
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African leaders at the U.S.-Africa Business Summit in Luanda have called for an end to aid-based relations with the U.S., urging a stronger focus on private investment and transformative partnerships.
Uzbekistan’s economic performance has remained strong, with robust growth, narrowing consolidated fiscal and current account deficits, and ample international reserves, stated the International Monetary Fund following to the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The International Monetary Fund announced Tuesday it has reached a staff-level agreement to disburse around $120 million to El Salvador, following the first review of a $1.4 billion, 40-month extended fund facility program.
The European Commission is set to propose allowing carbon credits from other countries to count towards the EU’s 2040 climate target, according to a leaked internal document.
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The United States has rescinded licensing restrictions on ethane exports to China, allowing shipments to resume after a temporary halt and signalling progress in efforts to ease recent trade tensions.
Italy plans to grant approximately 500,000 work visas to non-EU nationals between 2026 and 2028, as announced in a cabinet statement. The initiative aims to address labor shortages by expanding legal immigration pathways
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Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid expectations that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
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