The IMF has lowered global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing Trump-era tariffs and rising uncertainty. Global growth is expected at 2.8% this year, while U.S. growth may slow to 1.8%, with heightened recession and inflation risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global and U.S. economic growth forecasts, citing the impact of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump and the uncertainty they have created. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects global growth at 2.8% for this year, down from its January forecast of 3.3%. For 2026, growth is expected to reach just 3%, also below previous estimates.
U.S. economic growth is now forecast at 1.8% for 2025, a significant drop from the earlier projection of 2.7%, and a full point below last year’s expansion rate. While the IMF does not anticipate a recession in the U.S., it has raised the likelihood of one occurring this year from 25% to 37%. JPMorgan analysts estimate an even higher risk, at 60%.
The IMF noted that the global economy is entering a new phase, with Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas describing it as a "reset" of the system that has governed the global economy for the past 80 years. The fund’s forecasts were finalized on April 4, following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping 10% tariffs on nearly 60 countries. Although the duties were paused for 90 days starting April 9, the IMF said the uncertainty still weighs heavily on global markets.
The U.S. economy may face a "supply shock" similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing inflation to around 3% by year-end. China’s growth is also expected to slow to 4% this year and next, partly due to falling demand from the U.S.
The European Union is forecast to see modest slowdowns, with eurozone growth revised to 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year—down 0.2% from earlier predictions. Japan’s growth has also been adjusted downward to 0.6% for both years. The IMF says that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy could continue to discourage business investment and global economic expansion.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he thinks there is a chance of a peace being reached with Ukraine. He told the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia that he believed there was "a chance of finding a solution," to the conflict.
U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will visit Russia then Ukraine over the weekend, Russian state news agency TASS has reported, citing an unnamed source. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also said American envoys will visit the capitals of both countries.
The Iranian Health Ministry said at least 18 people were killed and 142 others injured in U.S. airstrikes carried out between 30 August and 2 September.
The Iranian Army has again struck at U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for U.S. attacks on southern and western parts of Iran late on Tuesday, which reportedly killed 18 people and injured more than 100 others.
U.S. efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy through an oil blockade and sanctions are becoming increasingly difficult for Tehran to withstand, according to three senior Iranian sources. Washington is escalating pressure in hopes of securing concessions in future negotiations.
Volkswagen’s supervisory board has approved a major overhaul aimed at cutting 100,000 jobs by 2030 as the German carmaker battles weaker sales, falling profits and intensifying global competition.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang has called on American companies to expand their presence in China and pledged that Beijing would address their "reasonable concerns," as China looks to stabilise trade ties with Washington ahead of President Xi Jinping's planned visit to the U.S. later this month
Apple is entering a new era as Tim Cook steps down as chief executive after 15 years at the helm, handing the technology giant's leadership to longtime executive John Ternus.
Volkswagen is heading towards a decisive showdown with labour representatives as Germany's largest carmaker weighs sweeping restructuring measures that could lead to factory closures and tens of thousands of job losses.
Online fast-fashion retailer Shein is seeking to raise up to $1.77 billion in a Hong Kong IPO after its valuation fell around 70 per cent from its private-market peak four years ago.
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