Rebuilding Ukraine: The long road to restoring homes and communities

Ukraine faces a massive housing crisis as the ongoing war leaves over 2.5 million homes damaged or destroyed. Reconstruction efforts are advancing, but the road ahead remains long, complex, and deeply tied to economic, demographic, and security realities.

More than two years into the ongoing conflict, Ukraine’s housing sector remains one of the hardest hit. As of early 2025, an estimated 13 per cent of the country’s housing stock—over 2.5 million homes—has been damaged or destroyed. The financial cost of reconstruction is staggering, with total recovery needs projected at $524 billion, including nearly $84 billion for the housing sector alone. Frontline regions such as Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson continue to experience severe destruction. While rebuilding efforts have begun, the persistence of hostilities in parts of the country means reconstruction remains a continuous and extremely challenging process.

The eRecovery programme and its limits

To support displaced and affected citizens, the Ukrainian government launched the eRecovery programme. This digital initiative, accessible through the Diia platform, provides compensation for damaged homes and issues housing certificates for those seeking to buy new properties. Nearly 100,000 families have accessed these benefits, but significant obstacles remain. Many vulnerable people, especially the elderly and those without digital access, struggle to navigate the system. The availability of housing is another barrier, rising prices and limited supply may reduce the real value of compensation, especially in areas where demand has spiked due to internal displacement.

Modular housing and new approaches

In response to the urgent housing shortage, Ukraine is turning to innovative approaches such as modular housing. The “Housing for Ukraine” project, led by international partners, is delivering prefabricated units with a rent-to-own model aimed at displaced families. While this strategy offers rapid deployment, experts warn that long-term success depends on proper integration into urban and rural areas. These housing units must be supported by essential infrastructure and community services to avoid becoming isolated or temporary settlements.

Funding the recovery: International support and challenges

Ukraine’s reconstruction effort relies heavily on international financial assistance. The IMF, World Bank, European Union, and others have pledged substantial support, with the IMF anchoring a $148.8 billion programme. Despite these commitments, the funding gap remains considerable, nearly $10 billion in recovery needs for 2025 alone remain unfunded. Coordinating dozens of aid programmes and donors presents a logistical challenge. Efforts such as the Ukraine Donor Platform aim to improve efficiency and transparency, but success will depend on strong national leadership and sustained partner engagement.

The role and limits of private investment

Private sector involvement is vital to meet the scale of Ukraine’s housing needs. While some investment has begun, security risks and legal uncertainty continue to deter large-scale private engagement. For investors to commit fully, Ukraine must create a more stable legal environment and introduce risk mitigation tools such as war insurance and investment guarantees. However, without strong regulation, private capital may prioritise high-end or urban developments, leaving low-income families and displaced persons without affordable housing options.

Economic pressures and affordability

Ukraine’s macroeconomic landscape remains fragile. Inflation has surpassed 15 per cent, construction materials have seen sharp price increases, and a shortage of labour, especially in construction, is driving up costs further. Despite modest wage growth and state-backed mortgage schemes, many Ukrainians are unable to afford homes. Homeownership has declined, and the rental market is becoming increasingly unaffordable. Housing insecurity is growing, particularly among displaced families and those living in temporary accommodation.

Changing population dynamics

The war has caused one of the largest displacement crises in Europe since World War II. By early 2025, nearly 11 million people had been displaced, 6.9 million abroad and 3.7 million internally. While some refugees express the desire to return, security concerns, destroyed infrastructure, and a lack of employment are slowing return movements. Many internally displaced persons have relocated to western and central regions, reshaping housing demand and forcing a rethinking of where reconstruction efforts should be focused. Rebuilding destroyed homes in heavily damaged regions may not reflect new population patterns.

Regional disparities in housing recovery

Ukraine’s recovery is developing unevenly. In the west and centre, cities like Lviv and Vinnytsia are experiencing rising demand and prices, driven by an influx of IDPs. Meanwhile, areas near the frontline remain stagnant or depopulated due to ongoing hostilities. Kyiv’s market is slowly recovering, particularly in the premium segment, while Kharkiv, despite its proximity to the conflict, has seen a surprising rise in demand for new builds. In contrast, cities like Odesa remain vulnerable to economic uncertainty and security threats from the Black Sea. National policy must account for these regional contrasts, balancing support between stable growth hubs and war-torn regions still facing insecurity.

A new vision for housing

The government is working to modernise housing laws and governance, replacing outdated Soviet-era legislation with a new legal framework aimed at transparency, accessibility, and market efficiency. A proposed Unified Information and Analytical Housing System will track needs and housing stock across the country. But successful reform also depends on strengthening local governance, increasing administrative capacity, and enforcing anti-corruption measures. Without these foundations, even the most promising reforms risk being ineffective.

Looking ahead: Recovery with resilience

With conflict still ongoing, Ukraine’s housing recovery must be flexible, inclusive, and durable. While efforts are progressing, the full reconstruction of the housing sector will take years. It must address both immediate needs and long-term challenges: restoring destroyed homes, preventing deepening inequality, and supporting economic recovery. The housing system must also adapt to new demographic realities, climate demands, and evolving social needs. Ukraine has the opportunity not just to rebuild what was lost, but to create something better, a more just, resilient, and sustainable housing future for all its citizens, even as war continues to cast a long shadow over the nation’s path forward.

Copied