Rafal Trzaskowski, the Civic Coalition’s presidential candidate and current mayor of Warsaw, maintains a narrow lead over nationalist rival Karol Nawrocki ahead of Poland’s decisive second-round vote on Sunday, according to a new Ipsos poll.

The Ipsos survey, conducted for the news outlet oko.press and published, indicates that Trzaskowski would receive 48% of the vote if the second round were held today, while Nawrocki would garner 47%. The remaining 5% of respondents remain undecided, underlining the unpredictable nature of Sunday’s election.

Trzaskowski, who serves as mayor of Warsaw and represents Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO), narrowly outpaced Nawrocki - backed by the conservative-nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party - in the first round of voting. He secured 31.4% compared to Nawrocki’s 29.5%, a closer result than pre-election polls had anticipated.

As the second round nears, both candidates are intensifying efforts to capture the support of undecided voters and those who backed eliminated candidates in the first round. The outcome is expected to be pivotal for the political direction of Poland, particularly regarding its stance on judicial reforms, EU relations, and civil liberties.

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