Economic discontent in Northern Germany: A catalyst for AfD's growing support

The recent rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Northern German states has drawn attention to the economic underpinnings of political shifts in the region.

While Germany's economy is projected to grow by only 0.7% in 2025 after stagnating in 2024, significant regional disparities persist beneath these national figures, creating pockets of discontent that have become fertile ground for populist movements. This report examines how economic conditions in Northern Germany have contributed to increasing support for the AfD, particularly in the context of the 2025 German federal election.

The Economic Landscape of Northern Germany
Northern German states present a complex economic picture with significant internal variations. While Hamburg remains one of Germany's wealthiest regions with a GDP per capita of €76,910 as of 2022 (the highest in Germany), it has recently experienced economic decline, with output falling by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This economic downturn in a traditionally prosperous region signals broader structural issues affecting Northern Germany.

Other northern states show varying degrees of economic challenge:

• Bremen has the highest unemployment rate in Germany at 10.2%
• Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while showing stronger economic growth in 2024 than the national average, has historically been one of Germany's poorest states with the lowest GDP per capita at €32,837 as of 2022
• Schleswig-Holstein (5.2% unemployment) and Lower Saxony (5.4% unemployment) have rates close to the national average of 5.3%
   

The stark differences between urban centers like Hamburg and more rural regions reflect a broader pattern of economic division. Small municipalities in regions like Mecklenburg-Vorpommern often feel underfunded and unheard at the federal level, lacking adequate financial support for infrastructure and housing development. This sense of economic marginalization has created a foundation for political discontent.

AfD's Electoral Performance in Northern Germany
The 2025 German federal election revealed significant support for the AfD across Northern Germany, though with notable regional variations that correspond to economic conditions:

• In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD dominated with 37.0% of first votes, making it the strongest party in the state
• Schleswig-Holstein saw the AfD gain 16.1% of votes
• Lower Saxony recorded 17.8% support for the AfD
• Hamburg, the wealthiest northern state, showed the lowest AfD support at 10.9% of second votes
   

These results demonstrate a pattern where economically disadvantaged regions typically show stronger support for the AfD. The party's exceptional performance in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where it received more than twice the support it did in Hamburg, illustrates how economic disparities can translate into political polarization.

Economic Factors Driving AfD Support
Research indicates a clear relationship between economic deprivation and support for radical political parties in Germany. A study on economic deprivation and radical voting found that higher rates of relative poverty and greater shortfalls from the national median income correlate with increased vote shares for parties like the AfD. This effect is particularly pronounced in economically vulnerable regions.

The German Economic Opportunity Index (GOI) further illustrates this relationship, showing that historically deindustrialized regions with lower economic opportunity scores tend to have higher AfD support. While this pattern is most visible in Eastern Germany, it extends to economically distressed areas in the west, suggesting that economic vulnerability rather than geographic location is the primary driver of AfD support.

In Northern Germany, this dynamic is evident in the contrast between prosperous urban centers like Hamburg and struggling rural or formerly industrial areas. The city of Pasewalk in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern exemplifies this situation, with residents feeling that small municipalities in their region are "underfunded" and need "better financial support" for housing, recreational facilities, and infrastructure development.

Regional Disparities and the East-West Divide
While Northern Germany has its own economic challenges, the most pronounced economic and political divide in Germany remains between east and west. In the 2025 federal election, the AfD swept through former East German states, winning 41 out of 44 constituencies. This success builds on historical patterns of support, with the AfD having "roughly twice as much support in the east than in the west" of Germany.

The east-west economic divide remains substantial despite decades of investment. Eastern states like Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia consistently rank at the bottom of GDP per capita measurements. This economic inequality has contributed to "widespread sentiments of societal marginalization among eastern Germans" that provide fertile ground for AfD rhetoric.

However, Northern Germany offers an important insight: the AfD phenomenon is not exclusively eastern. Economic vulnerability in formerly industrial regions across Germany has created similar patterns of discontent. In places like Bremen, with its high unemployment rate of 10.2%, economic insecurity has contributed to growing support for radical parties even in western states.

Demographic Challenges and Rural Exodus
Compounding economic challenges in Northern Germany is a significant demographic shift. A "massive exodus is causing cities across Germany to swell while draining rural areas of people, money and life". This rural exodus has particularly affected regions in Northern Germany, creating a cycle of decline where population loss leads to reduced public services, economic stagnation, and further population loss.

The town of Nordhalben exemplifies this problem: its population fell from 3,000 to 1,900, with 85 out of 820 houses standing empty. While this specific example is from Bavaria, similar patterns are evident across rural Northern Germany. Local governments in these declining areas face diminishing tax bases and reduced federal contributions (which are typically population-based), forcing them to borrow money just to maintain basic services.

The AfD has successfully positioned itself as a champion for these "left behind" regions, capitalizing on resentment against a perceived urban-focused economic policy. This strategy has been particularly effective in rural areas of Northern Germany where economic decline and population loss have been most severe.

Conclusion: Economic Discontent as a Catalyst for Political Change
The rise of the AfD in Northern Germany demonstrates how economic discontent can transform into political realignment. While multiple factors contribute to the party's success-including attitudes toward immigration, dissatisfaction with federal policies, and concerns about cultural change-economic insecurity provides the foundation upon which these other issues gain traction.

The varying levels of AfD support across Northern German states correlate strongly with economic indicators: higher unemployment, lower GDP per capita, and perceptions of economic marginalization all predict increased AfD support. This pattern suggests that addressing regional economic disparities may be crucial for stemming the growth of radical political movements.

As Germany faces continued economic challenges, with growth projected at just 0.7% in 2025, the political implications of regional economic inequality will likely remain significant. The experience of Northern Germany serves as a warning that economic discontent, if left unaddressed, can become a powerful catalyst for political transformation that challenges established democratic norms and institutions.