Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid to remain in power suffered two major setbacks on Thursday as Israel’s political deadlock deepened. A longstanding ultra-Orthodox ally refused to back him for prime minister, while an Arab-led party endorsed his main rival.
President Isaac Herzog was set to meet Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, at his Jerusalem residence on Thursday night as he weighed who should get the first chance to form a government.
The 27 October election produced a hung parliament, with neither candidate having a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Although Herzog’s role is largely ceremonial, he must decide which candidate has the best chance of forming a government. He has until 11 November to make his decision.
Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity until a new coalition is formed or another election is held if efforts to form a government fail.
Netanyahu performed better than expected in the election, with his Likud party winning the most seats, at 27. However, his nationalist-religious coalition lost its majority, securing only 53 seats.
On Thursday, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), one of the two main parties representing ultra-Orthodox voters and a longstanding Netanyahu ally, refused to endorse any candidate to form a government.
“We are not obligated to any bloc,” UTJ’s Yitzhak Goldknopf said, according to Ynet.
Fellow party member Yaakov Pindrus said UTJ’s stance on military conscription “has not changed since the establishment of the state”.
Ynet reported that the party had prioritised legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from military service.
UTJ holds seven seats. Without its support, Netanyahu’s expected endorsements dropped to 46 lawmakers.
The other ultra-Orthodox party, Shas, backed Netanyahu, alongside the far-right Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist parties. According to Ynet, Shas saw its representation fall from 11 seats to six in the election.
Eisenkot’s anti-Netanyahu alliance of four Jewish-led parties, spanning the centre-left to the right, won only 48 seats, despite pre-election polls suggesting a close race.
Meanwhile, two Arab-led parties secured an unprecedented 19 seats.
Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot has ruled out including Arab-led parties in his government. Nevertheless, Ra’am endorsed him on Thursday, while the Joint List was expected to follow suit later in the day.
According to Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, Ra’am chairman Mansour Abbas and fellow representatives Yoav Seglovitz and Iman Khatib Yasin delivered the party’s endorsement to Herzog.
With Ra’am’s eight seats, Eisenkot has now secured formal recommendations from 56 lawmakers.
Ynet reported that Amjad Shbita of Hadash, part of the Joint List, described Eisenkot as a “coward and a racist” but did not rule out supporting him.
“We are prepared to take any step that will bring down Netanyahu’s government,” he said.
Gilad Kariv of the left-wing Democrats said his party would back an Eisenkot-led government even without a parliamentary majority.
“There is a clear majority of 67 seats against the continuation of Netanyahu’s rule,” he said, according to Ynet.
Herzog has called on political leaders to exhaust every option to avoid another election, warning of the challenges facing the country.
“Any reasonable person need only look at the security and diplomatic challenges before us, at the changing region around us, and remember the issues tearing us apart from within, to understand that an immense responsibility rests upon us,” he said.
The president has also raised doubts about whether a minority government could function effectively.
“How can you run a government that relies on a minority? It’s complicated,” he said, according to Ynet. “You cannot ignore the 27 seats Likud received, a quarter of the people.”
Herzog has been consulting parties from the smallest to the largest. His office said the approach was intended to “encourage fresh thinking”.
The political standoff has been further complicated by Netanyahu’s allegations surrounding the election.
He has pointed to an investigation by election officials into possible vote tampering and accused Arab-led parties of electoral fraud.
Critics say Netanyahu and his allies are seeking to discredit the result, an allegation he denies.
Israel’s Central Election Committee said on Wednesday that the vote’s integrity had not been compromised.
Its head, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, called on elected officials to uphold public confidence in the democratic process.
“This is a real danger. One of the foundations of democracy is the peaceful transfer of power,” Sohlberg told Herzog.
He also described the high voter turnout, particularly among Arab citizens, as a positive sign.
Meanwhile, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and other Netanyahu allies have demanded the immediate arrest and interrogation of Arab party leaders.
With neither bloc holding a majority, analysts see three possible outcomes: a minority government, a unity deal or another election.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, told The Jerusalem Post that such an arrangement was“emerging as an option mathematically and politically”.
However, he warned that Israeli public opinion was “deeply unprepared” for such a government.
According to an analysis by Congressional Research Service analyst Jim Zanotti, this could involve a power-sharing agreement between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, potentially including a rotating premiership.
Eisenkot had previously rejected an arrangement that would have allowed Netanyahu to serve as prime minister.
Plesner said a unity deal could gain public acceptance, although its political feasibility remains uncertain.
Plesner and other analysts believe a fresh vote may be the most likely outcome.
Such a scenario would leave Netanyahu in office as caretaker prime minister, an outcome Plesner suggested could ultimately benefit him most.
Eisenkot warned on election night that forcing voters back to the polls after such a high turnout would be a mistake.
Herzog is expected to announce his choice of candidate in the coming days.
Whoever receives the mandate will have 28 days to assemble a coalition, with the possibility of a further 14-day extension.
Zanotti also noted that the new Knesset is due to convene on 10 November.
For Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader, the immediate battle is over who gets the first chance to form a government. But with the country facing another potentially prolonged political stalemate, even failure to secure a majority could work in his favour.
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