Russian satellite's close approach to Western spacecraft raises fears of attack rehearsal

A Russian military satellite may have rehearsed an attack on a Western commercial spacecraft after coming within metres of it in orbit, an expert has warned, as two other Russian satellites approach another Western spacecraft.

U.S. Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said on X following the mid-October incident that Russia's Cosmos 2612 military satellite had been “intentionally manoeuvring dangerously close to a commercial satellite” in conduct “consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.”

The satellite involved, X36, is operated by Finnish company ICEYE and provides radar imagery to Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine.

Three space specialists described the incident as one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low Earth orbit.

The encounter “looks like an attack rehearsal,” said Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, a U.S. company that trains American space forces.

“This is the most aggressive posture I've seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation,” he told Reuters.

Russia's Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly warned that Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation.

Ann Stevens, head of ICEYE's U.S. operations, told Reuters X36 “has been and will continue to be a productive satellite” and that its constellation of radar-imaging satellites is resilient to disruption.

Orbital activity raises security concerns

The incident has fuelled concerns over the security of commercial satellite networks, which are playing an increasingly important role in military operations.

It follows months of Russian activity around ICEYE satellites that Western officials have warned could signal a growing threat to commercial satellite networks, including those operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX.

Gillinger, a former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer who has tracked the Russian satellites, said Cosmos 2612 appeared to be testing capabilities linked to kinetic attacks. He argued that such a close approach was unnecessary for intelligence gathering or electronic interference.

According to U.S. space intelligence firm Slingshot Aerospace, Cosmos 2612 is publicly classified as a servicing and inspection satellite.

The spacecraft was among six military satellites launched by Russia in April. In May, Russia positioned four of them close to X36, space analysts said.

ICEYE subsequently moved its satellite, prompting further Russian manoeuvres, the company's chief executive, Rafal Modrzewski, told Reuters in September.

In early October, Cosmos 2612 positioned itself hundreds of kilometres behind X36, according to space analysts.

Within days, it rapidly closed the gap, coming within one kilometre of X36 in mid-October. Some analysts estimated the distance between them at just a few hundred metres or less.

Cosmos 2612 later moved around 400 kilometres away, Gillinger said.

Two more Russian satellites close in on Western spacecraft

Two related Russian satellites are now drifting towards the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37, according to Gillinger.

U.S. space-tracking company COMSPOC also reported that the pair were increasingly well positioned to approach X37.

Both X36 and X37 are registered in the United States, according to public space-object catalogues.

Germany's space commander, Major General Michael Traut, told Reuters that such close encounters could serve several purposes, including inspection, observation or interference, depending on the spacecraft's technical capabilities.

“We must ⁠therefore consider the entire spectrum of possible effects, ranging from temporarily disrupting a satellite's operations to permanently disabling it,” he said.

However, Traut cautioned that the ability to carry out such manoeuvres did not necessarily mean Russia was preparing or rehearsing an attack. Publicly available orbital data alone could not establish the spacecraft's intentions, he said.

Growing fears of conflict in space

Major powers are increasingly preparing for the possibility of warfare extending beyond Earth.

Washington recently acknowledged deploying weapons in orbit, while the head of U.S. Space Command said earlier this year that Russia had deployed a space weapon within reach of critical U.S. national security satellites.

Russia's approach to X36 “really elevates the potential of an attack” from either deliberate or inadvertent interaction, said Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer.

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