Unusually heavy rain, thunderstorms and hail during Uzbekistan's hottest season have sparked widespread debate over the causes. While some blame climate change, others have promoted conspiracy theories involving cloud seeding and so-called "weather weapons".
Environmental specialist and water resources expert Nina Pikul, a member of the Public Council under Uzbekistan's National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change, says summer rainfall itself is not unusual for the region. What matters is the intensity and duration of individual storms.
"A summer rain becomes a climatic anomaly when a month's worth of precipitation falls within just a few hours," she explained.
Although July is traditionally Uzbekistan's hottest and driest month, powerful thunderstorms developed across Tashkent in early July, bringing torrential rain, hail and strong winds.
June 2026 brought intermittent thunderstorms and squalls, while June 2025 was exceptionally dry. Earlier years alternated between droughts and wetter-than-average conditions, highlighting growing climate variability across the region.
Scientists attribute the increasing frequency of intense summer storms partly to climate change.
As temperatures rise, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. When cooler, moisture-laden air masses from the south and west collide with hot air over Central Asia, particularly around the Tian Shan mountain range surrounding Tashkent, powerful storm clouds can develop rapidly.
Experts also believe this year's weather may have been influenced by El Niño, which alters global atmospheric circulation and can increase rainfall across parts of Central Asia.
At the same time, climate change is accelerating glacier melt, disrupting long-term water cycles and creating sharper contrasts between prolonged dry periods and short bursts of heavy rainfall.
Restoring Tashkent's traditional irrigation canals, expanding green spaces and improving natural drainage would help absorb rainfall and reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Without vegetation and permeable soil, rainwater quickly accumulates on roads, underpasses and other urban infrastructure, increasing the risk of flooding.
Climate projections suggest Uzbekistan will continue to experience hotter summers over the next two decades, with more days above 40°C, longer heatwaves and more frequent "tropical nights", when temperatures remain above 20–25°C.
Although total summer rainfall is expected to remain relatively low, experts warn that precipitation will increasingly fall in short, intense downpours capable of triggering flash floods, mudslides and soil erosion.
The unusual weather has also fuelled speculation on social media, including claims that Iran destroyed cloud-seeding facilities in the United Arab Emirates, allowing rainfall to return to Central Asia, or that the U.S.-based HAARP research facility manipulates regional weather.
Climatologist Erkin Abdullakhatov says none of these claims is supported by scientific evidence.
While cloud seeding is a genuine technology used in countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, China and Kazakhstan, its effects are limited.
The process disperses substances such as silver iodide into existing clouds to encourage rainfall, typically increasing precipitation by only 5–20% within a relatively small area. It cannot create clouds, redirect weather systems across countries or "steal" rainfall from neighbouring states.
Similarly, HAARP is designed to study the ionosphere - a layer of the upper atmosphere hundreds of kilometres above where weather forms.
Rainfall, storms and cyclones develop in the troposphere, making it scientifically impossible for HAARP to control regional weather patterns.
Abdullakhatov noted that decades of international research, including studies conducted in both the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, have failed to demonstrate any capability to manipulate atmospheric circulation on such a scale.
Experts say attention should instead be focused on the region's growing water challenges.
According to Abdullakhatov, drought across Iran and Central Asia is primarily driven by rising temperatures, increased evaporation, shrinking glaciers, inefficient irrigation, groundwater depletion and long-term declines in precipitation.
Although the 2025–2026 season brought above-average rainfall to parts of Central Asia and the Middle East, scientists attribute this to natural atmospheric circulation, including shifts in ocean temperatures and large-scale climate patterns - not artificial weather modification.
Experts warn that while wetter seasons may temporarily ease drought conditions, Uzbekistan and the wider region will continue to face increasing climate risks, making adaptation, efficient water management and evidence-based policymaking more important than ever.
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