France is on track to run a larger-than-expected pension deficit from 2045 as falling birth rates and an ageing population put increasing pressure on the country's retirement system, according to the body that monitors its sustainability.
The French Pensions Advisory Council said a recent downward revision to the fertility rate had worsened the outlook, with the gap between contributions and pension payments now expected to reach 2.4 per cent of GDP by 2070.
The updated forecast was based on fresh population estimates released by the national statistics agency INSEE, which said it now expects the fertility rate to fall to 1.45 children per woman, down from a previous estimate of 1.8.
The deteriorating outlook is bad news for France's public finances. Last year, pension spending totalled €422 billion (U.S.$486 billion), equivalent to 14.1 per cent of economic output, the second-highest share among advanced economies after Italy.
The report is likely to fuel debate over pension reform, which is expected to be a major political issue ahead of the April 2027 presidential election.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu last year agreed to suspend a deeply contested 2023 pension reform that would have gradually raised the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 by the beginning of 2028.
The decision, which Lecornu took to avoid a vote of no confidence, pushes the final decision back until after the next presidential election.
The Pensions Advisory Council has said that raising the retirement age is the only solution to the growing deficit in the pension system that would not affect economic growth.
It added that higher immigration could help public finances in the short term, but noted that migrants eventually retire as well, merely delaying the financial reckoning by around a decade.
France's natural population growth turned negative in 2025 and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future, with population gains until 2037 driven entirely by migration, according to INSEE's projections.
By 2070, one in three people in France will be aged 65 or older, roughly double the share aged under 20.
The sharpest shift will be among the oldest age groups, with the number of people aged 80 and over more than doubling to around nine million, while the number of centenarians could quadruple to about 160,000.
An adviser to the European Union’s top court said on Thursday that the European Commission’s appeal against a 2024 ruling, which required disclosu...
Migrants in the U.S. who were prevented from being sent back to their home country due to the risk of persecution are set to be deported to the war-to...
Finance ministers across East Africa unveiled their 2026/27 budgets on Thursday, as investors assessed how governments plan to protect their economies...
More than a third of Belgium’s population now has a foreign background, according to new figures released by the national statistics office, Statbel...
SpaceX has made history with the largest initial public offering ever in the United States, pricing its shares at $135 each and achieving a market val...
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to become the biggest tournament in football history.
An adviser to the European Union’s top court said on Thursday that the European Commission’s appeal against a 2024 ruling, which required disclosure of information on COVID-19 vaccine contracts, should be dismissed.
Migrants in the U.S. who were prevented from being sent back to their home country due to the risk of persecution are set to be deported to the war-torn Central African Republic.
Finance ministers across East Africa unveiled their 2026/27 budgets on Thursday, as investors assessed how governments plan to protect their economies from shocks linked to the ongoing Iran war while managing rising debt levels.
Mexico and South Africa meet in Thursday’s World Cup opener in Mexico City, with both teams approaching the match from very different positions but facing their own pressures.
The Pakistani city of Karachi is struggling under severe heat and humidity as the country enters a prolonged heatwave period. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned of above-normal temperatures across much of the country between 7 and 12 June.
Ukraine's military said it struck a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Black Sea as part of ongoing efforts to disrupt Moscow's energy and logistics networks. The move underscores Kyiv's focus on targeting maritime assets it says are used to bypass sanctions on Russian oil exports.
U.S. forces say they have completed strikes on Iranian military sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with missile attacks on an American base in Jordan, marking a sharp escalation in tensions between the two sides.
Mexico City has been hit by major disruption eight days before it hosts the opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as teachers, retired judges and other groups staged mass protests.
An adviser to the European Union’s top court said on Thursday that the European Commission’s appeal against a 2024 ruling, which required disclosure of information on COVID-19 vaccine contracts, should be dismissed.
Migrants in the U.S. who were prevented from being sent back to their home country due to the risk of persecution are set to be deported to the war-torn Central African Republic.
Finance ministers across East Africa unveiled their 2026/27 budgets on Thursday, as investors assessed how governments plan to protect their economies from shocks linked to the ongoing Iran war while managing rising debt levels.
More than a third of Belgium’s population now has a foreign background, according to new figures released by the national statistics office, Statbel. The data show that around 4.34 million of the country’s nearly 11.7 million residents do not have an entirely Belgian background.
SpaceX has made history with the largest initial public offering ever in the United States, pricing its shares at $135 each and achieving a market valuation of $1.77 trillion.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment