Italy is voting on 22 and 23 March in a judicial reform referendum that could reshape the justice system and test Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s political strength ahead of the 2027 general election.
The referendum seeks to split the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM), the body that governs judges and prosecutors, into two separate entities: one for judges and one for public prosecutors. Currently, the council is self-governing, and its members are elected.
Under the proposed reform, members would instead be selected by lot rather than elected - a change supporters say will curb political influence.
While the technical focus is on judicial governance, the referendum has quickly become a political showdown. The government-backed “Yes” camp supports the reform, while the opposition - including centre-left parties - is advocating a “No” vote.
Turnout is not required for the referendum to be valid, adding an unpredictable element to the outcome.
Analysts suggest many Italians may vote based on party loyalty rather than on the substance of the reform.
“Only a small minority of Italians knows much about the issue. Many will instead look to party and coalition leaders, who are all trying to mobilise their voters to win,” pollster Fabrizio Masia of EMG said.
Recent polls show the two sides neck and neck, with the opposition gaining some momentum. A “No” victory could help the centre-left forge a broader coalition and may weaken Meloni’s position, while a “Yes” win would bolster her political influence heading into the next general election.
Meloni has said she will not resign if the referendum fails - a move seen by some as an attempt to discourage opposition voters from rallying against her.
Her governing coalition, comprising Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia, remains broadly more popular than the fragmented left, which continues its efforts to unite the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement.
Judicial reform is a long-standing political issue in Italy, dating back to the era of former centre-right Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who faced multiple trials and often accused judges of bias.
The referendum has reignited debate about the independence of Italy’s judiciary and the influence of politics over the justice system.
The magistrates’ union, ANM, opposes the reform, warning it could weaken judicial independence and increase political interference. The government argues the measure is necessary to modernise the justice system and prevent political manipulation in CSM appointments.
“The reform aims to make the justice system more modern, fair, accountable and independent - free from political pressure and from the factionalism that has damaged its credibility and authority,” Meloni told the Italian newspaper Il Dubbio.
The referendum is a test of political power.
A “Yes” outcome would strengthen Meloni’s position and support the government’s longer-term strategy. A “No” result could energise the centre-left and create tensions within Meloni’s coalition, against the backdrop of Italy facing economic challenges and regional security concerns linked to the broader U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran.
With voters likely to be influenced as much by politics as by the substance of the law, the March vote will mark a crucial moment in Italy’s ongoing debate over justice, governance and political accountability.
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