Europe's Russian gas era comes to an end as Ukraine transit stops

Russia’s gas transit to Europe via Ukraine ends after decades, closing a key supply route as the EU diversifies energy sources amid strained relations and economic shifts.

Russia’s long-standing gas supply to Europe via Ukraine, active for decades, will end on New Year’s Day as the contract between the two nations collapses. This deal had generated billions in revenue for Moscow and transit fees for Kyiv.

The closure signifies the end of Russia's longest-running gas route to Europe, coinciding with a decade of strained relations following the 2014 events in Crimea. In response to the 2022 conflict in Ukraine, thea EU increased efforts to diversify its energy sources, turning to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the U.S., as well as pipeline supplies from Norway.

In 2022, Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas exporter, recorded its first loss since 1999, losing $7 billion despite boosting exports to China. Slovakia and Austria, previously reliant on Russian gas via Ukraine, have secured alternative supplies through Italy and Germany, ensuring consumer needs. Slovakia, however, faces €177 million ($184 million) in additional fees for these routes.

The European Commission highlighted enhanced LNG import capacity, energy efficiency measures, renewable energy development, and a flexible gas system as key to mitigating the impact.

Analysts expect minimal market disruption, as the remaining Russian volumes via Ukraine are small, and European gas prices saw little movement.

Ukraine stands to lose $800 million annually in transit fees, while Gazprom will forgo $5 billion in sales. Moldova, heavily affected, plans to cut its gas use by a third. The EU has faced higher energy costs, hitting industrial competitiveness, exacerbating inflation, and worsening the cost-of-living crisis.

Other Russian pipelines, such as Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream to Germany, have also ceased operations.

Once supplying 201 billion cubic meters of gas annually at their peak in 2018, Russia shipped only 15 bcm via Ukraine in 2023, down from 65 bcm in 2020. TurkStream, crossing the Black Sea, remains Russia's sole active route, supplying Türkiye, Hungary, and Serbia.

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